Welcome to Tournament Index — the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.

Heat Check CBB’s Tournament Index is the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.

The purpose: We project how March Madness teams will perform based on their own strengths as well as their bracket placement, identifying under-seeded and over-seeded teams and the difficulty of their tournament path.

Current RatingsHistorical Team Ratings
Upset Alerts Cinderella Watch
Dark HorsesDraw Difficulty

Tournament Index: 2022-23 Ratings

Ratings are updated every morning.

Projected seeds are courtesy of BracketMatrix.com. Only teams that appear in the most recent BracketMatrix update are included in tournament advancement probabilities.

Clicking the + icon will display tournament advancement probabilities by round as well as the team's most similar historical March Madness team, determined by similarity scores.
RANKTEAMCONFRATINGSEEDAVG. WINSNETRECORDFirst RoundSecond RoundSweet 16Elite EightFinal FourChampMost Similar Team
1HoustonAAC90.613.30119-295.3%80.3%61.4%43.5%29.9%19.8%2014 Arizona (1-seed, E8)
2TennesseeSEC87.722.82217-392.1%71.0%52.0%32.9%21.2%13.1%2015 Virginia (2-seed, R32)
3UCLAPac-1285.822.65517-491.2%68.1%48.2%29.0%17.8%10.5%2013 Syracuse (4-seed, F4)
4AlabamaSEC85.012.80318-293.4%73.5%50.9%32.0%19.3%11.1%2021 Michigan (1-seed, E8)
5UConnBig East82.742.17716-685.6%61.8%33.3%19.7%11.1%6.0%2017 Florida State (3-seed, R32)
6KansasBig 1281.712.521016-491.9%68.8%44.2%25.5%14.0%7.3%2016 Oklahoma (2-seed, F4)
7TexasBig 1281.122.24817-388.3%60.3%38.5%20.2%10.9%5.6%2019 Virginia Tech (4-seed, S16)
8BaylorBig 1280.542.001415-583.7%58.0%29.1%16.2%8.6%4.3%2014 Duke (3-seed, R64)
9PurdueBig Ten80.312.41420-191.2%66.7%41.5%23.0%12.1%6.0%2015 Baylor (3-seed, R64)
10GonzagaWCC79.531.981217-484.5%56.4%30.2%15.1%7.7%3.7%2018 Arizona (4-seed, R64)
11ArizonaPac-1279.322.101118-387.0%57.2%35.0%17.3%8.8%4.2%2017 Purdue (4-seed, S16)
12ArkansasSEC78.081.352614-671.9%30.0%17.5%9.0%4.4%2.0%2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16)
13VirginiaACC76.831.781515-382.0%51.4%25.2%11.4%5.4%2.4%2016 Utah (3-seed, R32)
14TCUBig 1276.751.541316-476.1%43.1%18.9%9.3%4.3%1.9%2021 Texas Tech (6-seed, R32)
15KentuckySEC76.5111.123214-655.6%30.8%14.9%6.7%3.1%1.3%2014 Kentucky (8-seed, RUNNER-UP)
16IllinoisBig Ten76.571.292814-670.2%29.6%16.7%7.5%3.4%1.5%2018 Texas A&M (7-seed, S16)
17DukeACC76.361.403014-669.7%38.5%18.6%8.2%3.8%1.6%2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16)
18CreightonBig East75.9100.972012-853.6%22.1%12.3%5.4%2.4%1.0%2014 Oklahoma State (9-seed, R64)
19AuburnSEC75.551.463316-474.7%40.9%17.1%8.1%3.6%1.5%2022 Illinois (4-seed, R32)
20IndianaBig Ten75.471.222314-668.6%27.7%15.1%6.5%2.9%1.2%2017 Purdue (4-seed, S16)
21Saint Mary'sWCC75.161.32618-468.0%36.2%16.7%7.1%3.1%1.3%2021 St. Bonaventure (9-seed, R64)
22Iowa StateBig 1274.031.59915-479.0%46.0%20.4%8.3%3.5%1.4%2013 Oklahoma State (5-seed, R64)
23XavierBig East73.841.532217-476.7%45.4%17.8%7.9%3.3%1.3%2016 Miami (3-seed, S16)
24MarquetteBig East73.841.521616-576.7%45.3%17.8%7.9%3.3%1.3%2018 Nevada (7-seed, S16)
25RutgersBig Ten72.251.261914-670.3%34.6%12.7%5.3%2.1%0.8%2014 Kansas State (9-seed, R64)
26North CarolinaACC72.071.033115-663.6%22.4%11.0%4.1%1.6%0.6%2022 Michigan (11-seed, S16)
27ProvidenceBig East71.061.083516-561.8%28.7%11.3%4.1%1.5%0.5%2015 NC State (8-seed, S16)
28Kansas StateBig 1270.831.391717-375.3%39.9%15.7%5.6%2.1%0.7%2015 Georgetown (4-seed, R32)
29Ohio StateBig Ten70.2110.772711-945.2%20.3%7.8%2.7%1.0%0.3%2013 Saint Mary's (11-seed, R64)
30MiamiACC69.251.103716-465.9%29.2%9.4%3.5%1.2%0.4%2018 TCU (6-seed, R64)
31West VirginiaBig 1268.3110.692412-842.0%17.6%6.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%2013 Ole Miss (12-seed, R32)
32Boise StateMountain West67.790.742116-552.0%13.8%5.7%2.0%0.6%0.2%2022 Saint Mary's (5-seed, R32)
33San Diego StateMountain West67.260.892516-455.8%22.5%7.6%2.3%0.7%0.2%2022 North Carolina (8-seed, RUNNER-UP)
34IowaBig Ten66.780.764012-854.6%13.8%5.5%1.8%0.6%0.2%2014 NC State (12-seed, R64)
35NC StateACC66.380.754216-553.9%13.4%5.2%1.7%0.5%0.1%2016 Saint Joseph's (8-seed, R32)
36FAUC-USA66.290.691820-149.6%12.3%4.8%1.6%0.5%0.1%2017 Middle Tennessee (12-seed, R32)
37UtahPac-1266.2110.604815-738.7%14.9%4.8%1.4%0.4%0.1%2013 Akron (12-seed, R64)
38MemphisAAC65.4100.513916-536.6%9.5%3.6%1.0%0.3%0.1%2014 Harvard (12-seed, R32)
39Texas A&MSEC65.24314-62019 Baylor (9-seed, R32)
40MarylandBig Ten65.0110.563813-736.9%13.6%4.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%2015 Georgia (10-seed, R64)
41Oklahoma StateBig 1265.0110.564711-936.9%13.5%4.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%2022 Indiana (12-seed, R64)
42OregonPac-1264.96012-92019 Arizona State (11-seed, R64)
43USCPac-1264.5110.546215-636.1%13.0%3.9%1.0%0.3%0.1%2013 Belmont (11-seed, R64)
44DaytonAtlantic 1064.4120.527513-834.7%12.7%3.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%2018 Alabama (9-seed, R32)
45New MexicoMountain West64.280.672918-350.5%11.2%4.0%1.2%0.3%0.1%2021 UC Santa Barbara (12-seed, R64)
46Michigan StateBig Ten64.170.694114-751.0%12.4%4.5%1.2%0.3%0.1%2021 Virginia Tech (10-seed, R64)
47UCFAAC63.9110.525713-735.2%12.3%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.1%2018 San Diego State (11-seed, R64)
48FloridaSEC63.8110.524612-835.0%12.2%3.5%0.9%0.2%0.1%2022 Indiana (12-seed, R64)
49OklahomaBig 1263.1110.506511-933.9%11.5%3.2%0.8%0.2%0.0%2022 Notre Dame (11-seed, R32)
50Mississippi StateSEC63.0110.505912-833.9%11.4%3.2%0.8%0.2%0.0%2018 Syracuse (11-seed, S16)
51MichiganBig Ten62.97611-92016 Michigan (11-seed, R64)
52LibertyASUN62.6130.425317-527.4%11.1%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32)
53VillanovaBig East62.68910-102018 Miami (6-seed, R64)
54NorthwesternBig Ten62.3110.474414-532.8%10.7%2.9%0.7%0.2%0.0%2018 Syracuse (11-seed, S16)
55Penn StateBig Ten62.1110.475813-732.5%10.5%2.8%0.7%0.2%0.0%2018 Virginia Tech (8-seed, R64)
56Virginia TechACC62.05212-82013 Davidson (14-seed, R64)
57Arizona StatePac-1261.8100.415515-631.2%6.7%2.2%0.5%0.1%0.0%2015 St. John's (9-seed, R64)
58Utah StateMountain West61.7110.453616-531.9%10.1%2.6%0.6%0.1%0.0%2022 Davidson (10-seed, R64)
59ClemsonACC61.590.535617-441.9%8.1%2.6%0.7%0.2%0.0%2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32)
60ColoradoPac-1261.36412-102014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
61CincinnatiAAC60.88014-72016 SFA (14-seed, R32)
62Texas TechBig 1260.87710-102015 St. John's (9-seed, R64)
63Oral RobertsSummit League60.2120.405418-428.7%8.7%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%2022 Davidson (10-seed, R64)
64MarshallSun Belt60.0130.356617-524.1%8.8%1.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%2017 New Mexico State (14-seed, R64)
65UABC-USA59.98214-72014 BYU (10-seed, R64)
66NevadaMountain West59.9110.413416-529.4%8.6%2.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%2021 Missouri (9-seed, R64)
67PittsburghACC59.9110.406314-729.3%8.6%2.0%0.4%0.1%0.0%2022 Providence (4-seed, S16)
68North TexasC-USA59.86117-52014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
69MissouriSEC59.8100.364915-528.4%5.5%1.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%2017 Marquette (10-seed, R64)
70Seton HallBig East59.76712-92014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
71WisconsinBig Ten59.790.487112-739.0%6.8%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%2014 Nebraska (11-seed, R64)
72IonaMAAC59.6130.346913-623.6%8.5%1.7%0.4%0.1%0.0%2018 Montana (14-seed, R64)
73CharlestonCAA59.5120.384521-127.7%8.1%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%2015 Buffalo (12-seed, R64)
74Kent StateMAC59.3120.385016-427.5%8.0%1.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%2022 Boise State (8-seed, R64)
75Sam HoustonWAC59.1120.375116-527.2%7.8%1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%2018 UNCG (13-seed, R64)
76St. John'sBig East58.98413-82016 Temple (10-seed, R64)
77VCUAtlantic 1058.7120.367216-526.6%7.5%1.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32)
78Washington StatePac-1258.5749-132013 La Salle (13-seed, S16)
79Saint LouisAtlantic 1058.4120.358614-626.3%7.3%1.4%0.3%0.1%0.0%2016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64)
80SyracuseACC57.99713-82016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64)
81BradleyMVC57.4140.327814-823.1%7.3%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%2022 New Mexico State (12-seed, R32)
82Utah ValleyWAC57.3130.297316-621.0%6.8%1.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%2015 UC Irvine (13-seed, R64)
83UC Santa BarbaraBig West57.2140.328717-322.9%7.1%1.5%0.3%0.1%0.0%2015 UC Irvine (13-seed, R64)
84Wake ForestACC57.1110.347014-725.6%6.5%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%2022 Miami (10-seed, E8)
85Southern MissSun Belt56.4130.286818-420.0%6.2%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64)
86LMUWCC56.48815-72019 Vermont (13-seed, R64)
87BYUWCC56.49614-92019 Ohio State (11-seed, R32)
88Santa ClaraWCC56.37916-62016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64)
89PrincetonIvy League56.1140.309914-521.6%6.4%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%2018 Georgia State (15-seed, R64)
90Ole MissSEC56.01159-112014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
91VanderbiltSEC56.09210-102013 Temple (9-seed, R32)
92YaleIvy League55.9140.299113-621.4%6.3%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%2018 SFA (14-seed, R64)
93Grand CanyonWAC55.810314-72016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64)
94GeorgiaSEC55.611113-72014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
95DrakeMVC55.6140.299016-621.0%6.1%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32)
96LouisianaSun Belt55.6130.269817-419.1%5.7%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64)
97James MadisonSun Belt55.68314-82018 SFA (14-seed, R64)
98ToledoMAC55.410514-62013 Iona (15-seed, R64)
99UC IrvineBig West55.3130.269313-718.9%5.6%0.9%0.2%0.0%0.0%2014 Western Michigan (14-seed, R64)
100San FranciscoWCC55.211214-92015 Northeastern (14-seed, R64)
101HawaiiBig West55.211015-62018 UNCG (13-seed, R64)
102UNLVMountain West55.28113-72021 Oregon State (12-seed, E8)
103CharlotteC-USA55.29413-82021 Eastern Washington (14-seed, R64)
104FurmanSoCon55.0140.2710916-620.3%5.7%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64)
105San Jose StateMountain West54.910713-82017 Troy (15-seed, R64)
106SIUMVC54.8130.2510417-518.3%5.3%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 Wyoming (12-seed, R64)
107TulaneAAC54.810113-72019 Northeastern (13-seed, R64)
108DuquesneAtlantic 1054.813014-72014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64)
109HofstraCAA54.710614-82021 Eastern Washington (14-seed, R64)
110WashingtonPac-1254.611813-92019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
111QuinnipiacMAAC54.612215-52016 CSU Bakersfield (15-seed, R64)
112Seattle UWAC54.3140.269516-519.7%5.4%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 UAB (14-seed, R32)
113StanfordPac-1254.11258-122016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64)
114Indiana StateMVC54.0130.2312713-917.6%4.9%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2017 Winthrop (13-seed, R64)
115NebraskaBig Ten54.010010-112016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32)
116UMass LowellAmerica East53.9150.1614817-512.2%3.2%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2014 Mercer (14-seed, R32)
117CornellIvy League53.9140.258514-519.2%5.1%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 Eastern Washington (13-seed, R64)
118George MasonAtlantic 1053.912912-92022 Jacksonville State (15-seed, R64)
119TowsonCAA53.814515-72016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64)
120Youngstown StateHorizon53.7150.1611615-612.0%3.1%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64)
121AkronMAC53.611914-62015 UAB (14-seed, R32)
122Colorado StateMountain West53.612010-112019 Georgia State (14-seed, R64)
123BelmontMVC53.6130.2311716-617.1%4.7%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 Northeastern (14-seed, R64)
124RichmondAtlantic 1053.613711-102013 Montana (13-seed, R64)
125ButlerBig East53.510211-112022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
126ColgatePatriot53.5140.2511315-718.8%4.9%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 Belmont (15-seed, R64)
127Wichita StateAAC53.314210-102016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32)
128TempleAAC53.312413-92019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
129California BaptistWAC53.114013-82018 SFA (14-seed, R64)
130LSUSEC53.113312-82022 Richmond (12-seed, R32)
131Montana StateBig Sky53.1150.1511414-811.6%2.9%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.0%2022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
132South FloridaAAC53.01539-122015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
133Middle TennesseeC-USA52.910813-82016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32)
134UNCGSoCon52.8140.2412314-818.1%4.6%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
135Long Beach StateBig West52.516211-102016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64)
136Southern UtahWAC52.412115-72014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
137LongwoodBig South52.4160.1514615-711.1%3.3%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 UAB (14-seed, R32)
138TroySun Belt52.3140.2312613-917.7%4.4%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
139OhioMAC52.213811-92014 Delaware (13-seed, R64)
140SamfordSoCon52.1150.1413514-811.0%2.6%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2017 Iona (14-seed, R64)
141Cleveland StateHorizon52.115012-92022 Longwood (14-seed, R64)
142Missouri StateMVC51.913611-102015 UAB (14-seed, R32)
143Air ForceMountain West51.715112-92018 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
144SFAWAC51.713214-72015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
145UMassAtlantic 1051.515712-82014 Wofford (15-seed, R64)
146Eastern WashingtonBig Sky51.4150.1314415-710.5%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2021 Drexel (16-seed, R64)
147PepperdineWCC51.21877-152014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
148UC DavisBig West51.215613-82015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
149ODUSun Belt51.217012-92016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64)
150DePaulBig East51.11559-122018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
151HarvardIvy League51.013912-82018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
152VermontAmerica East51.0160.1415211-1010.2%2.8%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
153Notre DameACC50.91859-122014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64)
154DavidsonAtlantic 1050.916010-102018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
155UC RiversideBig West50.8140.2114714-716.2%3.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
156PennIvy League50.817410-112021 Drexel (16-seed, R64)
157FordhamAtlantic 1050.714316-42013 Albany (15-seed, R64)
158RadfordBig South50.7160.1315813-910.1%2.7%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2016 UNC Asheville (15-seed, R64)
159Georgia TechACC50.61918-122014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
160UNCWCAA50.512817-62018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
161Fresno StateMountain West50.41807-122022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
162Florida StateACC50.42027-142018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
163Kennesaw StateASUN50.4150.1213116-69.9%2.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%2014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
164DrexelCAA50.316412-92013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64)
165LipscombASUN50.317513-92022 Montana State (14-seed, R64)
166Eastern KentuckyASUN50.2150.1216513-99.7%2.1%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
167FGCUASUN50.114114-82019 Abilene Christian (15-seed, R64)
168ChattanoogaSoCon50.117711-112018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
169UTEPC-USA50.117211-92018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
170Murray StateMVC50.017311-102016 Buffalo (14-seed, R64)
171Louisiana TechC-USA50.015911-102018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
172BuffaloMAC50.016710-102014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
173St. BonaventureAtlantic 1049.918610-112015 North Dakota State (15-seed, R64)
174RiceC-USA49.813415-52021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16)
175Ball StateMAC49.715413-72017 Troy (15-seed, R64)
176UNC AshevilleBig South49.6150.1217816-69.4%2.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2017 North Dakota (15-seed, R64)
177MinnesotaBig Ten49.62137-122019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
178SMUAAC49.52117-142021 Appalachian St. ()
179Cal State FullertonBig West49.517611-112013 James Madison (16-seed, R64)
180Boston CollegeACC49.419610-112022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64)
181SienaMAAC49.4150.1217113-79.3%1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64)
182East CarolinaAAC49.421711-102017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
183Northwestern StateSouthland49.4160.1218913-89.3%2.4%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
184South CarolinaSEC49.42788-122022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64)
185MilwaukeeHorizon49.3150.1216114-79.3%1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2022 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64)
186UNIMVC49.218412-92018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
187App StateSun Belt49.219312-102018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
188Gardner-WebbBig South49.219210-112022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
189Northern KentuckyHorizon49.2160.1220314-89.2%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2013 James Madison (16-seed, R64)
190WyomingMountain West49.22006-142019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
191Norfolk StateMEAC49.2160.1219013-79.2%2.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
192Sacramento StateBig Sky49.019512-92015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64)
193RiderMAAC49.02269-92014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
194Western KentuckyC-USA49.018111-102018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
195StetsonASUN49.0140.1814911-914.6%3.0%0.4%0.0%0.0%0.0%2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
196PortlandWCC48.916311-122014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64)
197San DiegoWCC48.922110-122017 South Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
198George WashingtonAtlantic 1048.917911-92021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16)
199South Dakota StateSummit League48.816611-102019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
200Rhode IslandAtlantic 1048.72307-132021 Appalachian St. ()
201GeorgetownBig East48.62426-152022 Wright State (16-seed, R64)
202Texas StateSun Belt48.521211-112013 James Madison (16-seed, R64)
203QueensASUN48.420814-82018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
204AmericanPatriot48.420113-72018 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
205South AlabamaSun Belt48.42058-132017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
206MontanaBig Sky48.41839-122021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16)
207Saint Joseph'sAtlantic 1048.32239-112014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
208WoffordSoCon48.222012-102019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
209NavyPatriot48.219811-102018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
210Detroit MercyHorizon48.22318-132018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
211Purdue Fort WayneHorizon48.119714-82014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
212BryantAmerica East48.116913-72019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
213JacksonvilleASUN48.118211-92015 Robert Morris (16-seed, R64)
214New Mexico StateWAC48.02077-132018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
215SIUEOVC47.9160.1116814-88.5%2.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2022 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
216DelawareCAA47.719411-112018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
217BrownIvy League47.720910-92017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
218UMBCAmerica East47.7140.1720614-813.6%2.6%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
219GramblingSWAC47.6160.1121012-78.4%2.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2021 Hartford (16-seed, R64)
220Kansas CitySummit League47.62449-132016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
221A&M-Corpus ChristiSouthland47.5160.1123812-98.3%1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
222Oregon StatePac-1247.42148-132017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
223Utah TechWAC47.418810-112016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
224TarletonWAC47.319911-102021 Appalachian St. ()
225NC CentralMEAC47.3160.1021510-98.2%1.9%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
226Weber StateBig Sky47.221611-102017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
227Wright StateHorizon47.022812-102018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
228Georgia SouthernSun Belt47.022212-102021 Appalachian St. ()
229Southern IndianaOVC47.021913-92015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64)
230St. ThomasSummit League46.920414-92018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
231FairfieldMAAC46.923310-102021 Appalachian St. ()
232MercerSoCon46.823910-122014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
233ArmyPatriot46.723411-112019 Gardner Webb (16-seed, R64)
234Georgia StateSun Belt46.62469-122021 Appalachian St. ()
235AlcornSWAC46.62569-102016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
236Loyola ChicagoAtlantic 1046.52767-132019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
237PacificWCC46.522410-122016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
238Coastal CarolinaSun Belt46.526310-112014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
239Abilene ChristianWAC46.524310-112018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
240Bowling GreenMAC46.523510-102016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
241ETSUSoCon46.32708-142017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
242SouthernSWAC46.0160.0921810-107.6%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
243CaliforniaPac-1245.82883-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
244Saint Peter'sMAAC45.73158-122015 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
245FIUC-USA45.724910-112017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
246Portland StateBig Sky45.62259-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
247NichollsSouthland45.6160.0922710-107.4%1.6%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2021 Appalachian St. ()
248North Dakota StateSummit League45.62458-132019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
249NiagaraMAAC45.624110-92021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
250TulsaAAC45.52865-142019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
251Robert MorrisHorizon45.42529-122017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
252NortheasternCAA45.32678-122017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
253LafayettePatriot45.32487-152017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
254CampbellBig South45.32559-122021 Appalachian St. ()
255La SalleAtlantic 1045.22718-122021 Appalachian St. ()
256Boston UPatriot45.225110-122021 Appalachian St. ()
257HowardMEAC45.2160.0925812-107.2%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
258UT MartinOVC45.2160.0923214-87.2%1.5%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
259Western IllinoisSummit League45.022913-82016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
260CanisiusMAAC45.02755-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
261SEMOOVC45.0160.0923611-117.1%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
262Morgan StateMEAC45.0160.0923711-97.1%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
263North Carolina A&TCAA45.026911-122016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
264UT ArlingtonWAC44.92977-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
265Illinois StateMVC44.82618-142018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
266Charleston SouthernBig South44.82937-132018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
267New HampshireAmerica East44.82549-102016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
268Northern ColoradoBig Sky44.72667-132019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
269ULMSun Belt44.729110-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
270Western CarolinaSoCon44.726011-112016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
271LehighPatriot44.724712-82017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
272WagnerNEC44.7160.0927411-87.0%1.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
273Prairie ViewSWAC44.62927-142013 North Carolina A&T (16-seed, R64)
274DartmouthIvy League44.52817-132017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
275BellarmineASUN44.526210-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
276OaklandHorizon44.52579-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
277Northern IllinoisMAC44.52598-122017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
278UMESMEAC44.4160.0824011-86.9%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
279Western MichiganMAC44.42956-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
280Mount St. Mary'sMAAC44.32687-142017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
281WinthropBig South44.12739-132019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
282Idaho StateBig Sky44.12537-142017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
283ValparaisoMVC43.92899-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
284High PointBig South43.929910-112021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
285Jacksonville StateASUN43.93079-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
286UC San DiegoBig West43.92778-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
287North FloridaASUN43.82838-132019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
288Southeastern LouisianaSouthland43.8160.0825012-96.6%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
289Chicago StateDI Independent43.72825-172016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
290UICMVC43.62809-132017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
291USC UpstateBig South43.62909-112017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
292Texas SouthernSWAC43.63057-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
293LouisvilleACC43.53342-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
294Cal PolyBig West43.52797-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
295The CitadelSoCon43.43009-122017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
296DenverSummit League43.426412-112018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
297Northern ArizonaBig Sky43.32945-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
298North AlabamaASUN43.329612-102016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
299Morehead StateOVC43.2160.0826513-96.4%1.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
300MaineAmerica East43.02728-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
301BucknellPatriot43.03028-142017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
302UTRGVWAC43.028410-112019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
303Tennessee TechOVC42.928510-122016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
304FDUNEC42.9160.0830613-106.3%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
305Austin PeayASUN42.73048-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
306MaristMAAC42.73037-112017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
307South DakotaSummit League42.73109-122019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
308Texas A&M CommerceSouthland42.63019-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
309William & MaryCAA42.62989-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
310Miami (OH)MAC42.53177-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
311IdahoBig Sky42.42878-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
312Arkansas StateSun Belt42.43129-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
313Central MichiganMAC42.33147-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
314Jackson StateSWAC42.33236-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
315PresbyterianBig South42.23395-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
316ManhattanMAAC42.23256-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
317North DakotaSummit League42.03117-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
318CSU BakersfieldBig West42.03136-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
319UTSAC-USA41.83267-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
320NJITAmerica East41.63226-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
321Tennessee StateOVC41.532111-112016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
322OmahaSummit League41.53097-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
323CSUNBig West41.43294-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
324Sacred HeartNEC41.4160.0732011-125.7%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
325UAPBSWAC41.43089-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
326Saint FrancisNEC41.4160.073198-125.7%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
327Alabama StateSWAC41.33326-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
328Eastern MichiganMAC41.33314-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
329Stony BrookCAA41.33247-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
330BinghamtonAmerica East41.2160.073278-125.7%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
331MerrimackNEC41.13377-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
332South Carolina StateMEAC40.83483-182016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
333Central ConnecticutNEC40.83365-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
334Central ArkansasASUN40.83307-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
335Holy CrossPatriot40.73287-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
336Alabama A&MSWAC40.63447-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
337Coppin StateMEAC40.63166-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
338Little RockOVC40.53406-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
339StonehillNEC40.53189-142017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
340UAlbanyAmerica East40.53356-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
341Loyola MarylandPatriot40.23417-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
342McNeeseSouthland40.23335-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
343VMISoCon40.13465-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
344HamptonCAA40.03495-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
345New OrleansSouthland39.93506-132016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
346ColumbiaIvy League39.83436-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
347Eastern IllinoisOVC39.83387-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
348ElonCAA39.73522-192016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
349LindenwoodOVC39.63427-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
350UIWSouthland39.63479-122016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
351EvansvilleMVC39.53454-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
352Bethune-CookmanSWAC39.13516-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
353Houston ChristianSouthland38.73537-142016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
354St. Francis BrooklynNEC38.635410-112016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
355MonmouthCAA37.63591-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
356Delaware StateMEAC37.43552-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
357Mississippi Valley StateSWAC37.33572-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
358LamarSouthland37.23566-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
359Florida A&MSWAC37.23583-152016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
360IUPUIHorizon35.73613-192016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
361HartfordDI Independent35.53625-172016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
362Green BayHorizon35.33602-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
363LIUNEC35.03633-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)

Tournament Index highlights:

  • Correctly predicted each of the previous three national champions
  • Correctly predicted 14 Final Four teams since 2013
  • “Upset Alert” teams have lost 42 percent of their first-round matchups compared to the national average of 24 percent
  • “Cinderella Watch” teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 or further 28 percent of the time compared to the national average of 7.8 percent
  • “Dark Horse” teams have won 38 percent more NCAA Tournament games than other 5-11 seeds

How it works: Teams are given 0-to-100 power ratings based on key metrics that predict March Madness success, according to our research. These metrics include team efficiencies, Four Factors, NBA talent, tournament experience, preseason rankings and more.

After the bracket release on Selection Sunday, every team has a 0-to-100 “path rating” that determines the difficulty of their tournament path based on likely tournament opponents. For example, a 2-seed in a weaker region may have a more favorable draw than a 1-seed in a stronger region, which is reflected by this rating.

Round-by-round win probabilities are then generated for every team. From there, using ESPN’s Tournament Challenge pick data, we identify which teams provide the best overall value to help win your bracket pool. Value is determined by how many bracket points you would be expected to “gain” over your pool based on correctly selecting a particular team.

Here’s an example: In 2021, 6-seed BYU faced 11-seed UCLA in the first round. Our model gave BYU a 56.8% win probability compared to the 34.2% who selected UCLA to advance while our model gave UCLA a 43.2% win probability compared to the 65.8% who selected BYU to advance. Standard bracket formats typically follow the 10-20-40-80-160-320 round-by-round scoring format. The calculation for first-round pick value looks like the following:

  • BYU: 0.568 win probability * 0.342 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 1.9 pick value
  • UCLA: 0.423 win probability * 0.658 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 2.8 pick value

These calculations continue through the remaining five rounds and are summed for the team’s final overall pick value. The pick value indicates which teams you should select in each round of your bracket to earn the most expected points possible over your bracket pool.

Our model outsmarts the competition.

First and foremost, tournament seeds can deceive. Though the 2014 Kentucky team underwhelmed during the regular season, John Calipari’s Wildcats still had one of the tournament’s most talented rosters that year. Remember, the Cats were the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll going into the 2013-14 campaign.

As an 8-seed, Kentucky’s Power Rating of 79.6 would have even been considered above-average for a 3-seed, let alone an 8. It should come as somewhat less of a surprise, then, that the woefully under-seeded Wildcats advanced all the way to the national title game that year.

Meanwhile, a team like 2017 Minnesota — with a Power Rating of just 66.6 — entered the Big Dance as a 5-seed, but had a relative strength more resembling a 9-seed. Tournament Index would have said to avoid this 5-seed like the plague. As it happened, the Gophers trailed 12-seed Middle Tennessee by as many as 17 points in an eventual 81-72 first-round loss.

The selection committee has an impossible job to “correctly” select and seed all 68 teams, which means there is always hidden value to be found. To that end, Tournament Index shines a light into all the nooks and crannies of the bracket.

Below are tables showing how to interpret the Tournament Index ratings and identify potential advantages in your bracket pool.

NCAA Tournament wins based on Tournament Index Power Rating

Power RatingAverage NCAA Tournament Wins
88 or higher3.84
80 to 87.92.21
70 to 79.91.15
60 to 69.90.61
59.9 or lower0.13

Tournament Index Power Ratings By Seed