Welcome to Tournament Index — the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.
Heat Check CBB’s Tournament Index is the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.
The purpose: We project how March Madness teams will perform based on their own strengths as well as their bracket placement, identifying under-seeded and over-seeded teams and the difficulty of their tournament path.
| Current Ratings | Historical Team Ratings |
| Upset Alerts | Cinderella Watch |
| Dark Horses | Draw Difficulty |
Tournament Index: 2022-23 Ratings
Ratings are updated every morning.Projected seeds are courtesy of BracketMatrix.com. Only teams that appear in the most recent BracketMatrix update are included in tournament advancement probabilities.
Clicking the + icon will display tournament advancement probabilities by round as well as the team's most similar historical March Madness team, determined by similarity scores.
| RANK | TEAM | CONF | RATING | SEED | AVG. WINS | NET | RECORD | First Round | Second Round | Sweet 16 | Elite Eight | Final Four | Champ | Most Similar Team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston | AAC | 90.6 | 1 | 3.30 | 1 | 19-2 | 95.3% | 80.3% | 61.4% | 43.5% | 29.9% | 19.8% | 2014 Arizona (1-seed, E8) |
| 2 | Tennessee | SEC | 87.7 | 2 | 2.82 | 2 | 17-3 | 92.1% | 71.0% | 52.0% | 32.9% | 21.2% | 13.1% | 2015 Virginia (2-seed, R32) |
| 3 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 85.8 | 2 | 2.65 | 5 | 17-4 | 91.2% | 68.1% | 48.2% | 29.0% | 17.8% | 10.5% | 2013 Syracuse (4-seed, F4) |
| 4 | Alabama | SEC | 85.0 | 1 | 2.80 | 3 | 18-2 | 93.4% | 73.5% | 50.9% | 32.0% | 19.3% | 11.1% | 2021 Michigan (1-seed, E8) |
| 5 | UConn | Big East | 82.7 | 4 | 2.17 | 7 | 16-6 | 85.6% | 61.8% | 33.3% | 19.7% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 2017 Florida State (3-seed, R32) |
| 6 | Kansas | Big 12 | 81.7 | 1 | 2.52 | 10 | 16-4 | 91.9% | 68.8% | 44.2% | 25.5% | 14.0% | 7.3% | 2016 Oklahoma (2-seed, F4) |
| 7 | Texas | Big 12 | 81.1 | 2 | 2.24 | 8 | 17-3 | 88.3% | 60.3% | 38.5% | 20.2% | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2019 Virginia Tech (4-seed, S16) |
| 8 | Baylor | Big 12 | 80.5 | 4 | 2.00 | 14 | 15-5 | 83.7% | 58.0% | 29.1% | 16.2% | 8.6% | 4.3% | 2014 Duke (3-seed, R64) |
| 9 | Purdue | Big Ten | 80.3 | 1 | 2.41 | 4 | 20-1 | 91.2% | 66.7% | 41.5% | 23.0% | 12.1% | 6.0% | 2015 Baylor (3-seed, R64) |
| 10 | Gonzaga | WCC | 79.5 | 3 | 1.98 | 12 | 17-4 | 84.5% | 56.4% | 30.2% | 15.1% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 2018 Arizona (4-seed, R64) |
| 11 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 79.3 | 2 | 2.10 | 11 | 18-3 | 87.0% | 57.2% | 35.0% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 4.2% | 2017 Purdue (4-seed, S16) |
| 12 | Arkansas | SEC | 78.0 | 8 | 1.35 | 26 | 14-6 | 71.9% | 30.0% | 17.5% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16) |
| 13 | Virginia | ACC | 76.8 | 3 | 1.78 | 15 | 15-3 | 82.0% | 51.4% | 25.2% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 2016 Utah (3-seed, R32) |
| 14 | TCU | Big 12 | 76.7 | 5 | 1.54 | 13 | 16-4 | 76.1% | 43.1% | 18.9% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2021 Texas Tech (6-seed, R32) |
| 15 | Kentucky | SEC | 76.5 | 11 | 1.12 | 32 | 14-6 | 55.6% | 30.8% | 14.9% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 2014 Kentucky (8-seed, RUNNER-UP) |
| 16 | Illinois | Big Ten | 76.5 | 7 | 1.29 | 28 | 14-6 | 70.2% | 29.6% | 16.7% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 2018 Texas A&M (7-seed, S16) |
| 17 | Duke | ACC | 76.3 | 6 | 1.40 | 30 | 14-6 | 69.7% | 38.5% | 18.6% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16) |
| 18 | Creighton | Big East | 75.9 | 10 | 0.97 | 20 | 12-8 | 53.6% | 22.1% | 12.3% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2014 Oklahoma State (9-seed, R64) |
| 19 | Auburn | SEC | 75.5 | 5 | 1.46 | 33 | 16-4 | 74.7% | 40.9% | 17.1% | 8.1% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 2022 Illinois (4-seed, R32) |
| 20 | Indiana | Big Ten | 75.4 | 7 | 1.22 | 23 | 14-6 | 68.6% | 27.7% | 15.1% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 2017 Purdue (4-seed, S16) |
| 21 | Saint Mary's | WCC | 75.1 | 6 | 1.32 | 6 | 18-4 | 68.0% | 36.2% | 16.7% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.3% | 2021 St. Bonaventure (9-seed, R64) |
| 22 | Iowa State | Big 12 | 74.0 | 3 | 1.59 | 9 | 15-4 | 79.0% | 46.0% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 2013 Oklahoma State (5-seed, R64) |
| 23 | Xavier | Big East | 73.8 | 4 | 1.53 | 22 | 17-4 | 76.7% | 45.4% | 17.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2016 Miami (3-seed, S16) |
| 24 | Marquette | Big East | 73.8 | 4 | 1.52 | 16 | 16-5 | 76.7% | 45.3% | 17.8% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 2018 Nevada (7-seed, S16) |
| 25 | Rutgers | Big Ten | 72.2 | 5 | 1.26 | 19 | 14-6 | 70.3% | 34.6% | 12.7% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 2014 Kansas State (9-seed, R64) |
| 26 | North Carolina | ACC | 72.0 | 7 | 1.03 | 31 | 15-6 | 63.6% | 22.4% | 11.0% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 2022 Michigan (11-seed, S16) |
| 27 | Providence | Big East | 71.0 | 6 | 1.08 | 35 | 16-5 | 61.8% | 28.7% | 11.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 2015 NC State (8-seed, S16) |
| 28 | Kansas State | Big 12 | 70.8 | 3 | 1.39 | 17 | 17-3 | 75.3% | 39.9% | 15.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2015 Georgetown (4-seed, R32) |
| 29 | Ohio State | Big Ten | 70.2 | 11 | 0.77 | 27 | 11-9 | 45.2% | 20.3% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 2013 Saint Mary's (11-seed, R64) |
| 30 | Miami | ACC | 69.2 | 5 | 1.10 | 37 | 16-4 | 65.9% | 29.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 2018 TCU (6-seed, R64) |
| 31 | West Virginia | Big 12 | 68.3 | 11 | 0.69 | 24 | 12-8 | 42.0% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2013 Ole Miss (12-seed, R32) |
| 32 | Boise State | Mountain West | 67.7 | 9 | 0.74 | 21 | 16-5 | 52.0% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2022 Saint Mary's (5-seed, R32) |
| 33 | San Diego State | Mountain West | 67.2 | 6 | 0.89 | 25 | 16-4 | 55.8% | 22.5% | 7.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 2022 North Carolina (8-seed, RUNNER-UP) |
| 34 | Iowa | Big Ten | 66.7 | 8 | 0.76 | 40 | 12-8 | 54.6% | 13.8% | 5.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 2014 NC State (12-seed, R64) |
| 35 | NC State | ACC | 66.3 | 8 | 0.75 | 42 | 16-5 | 53.9% | 13.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2016 Saint Joseph's (8-seed, R32) |
| 36 | FAU | C-USA | 66.2 | 9 | 0.69 | 18 | 20-1 | 49.6% | 12.3% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 2017 Middle Tennessee (12-seed, R32) |
| 37 | Utah | Pac-12 | 66.2 | 11 | 0.60 | 48 | 15-7 | 38.7% | 14.9% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 2013 Akron (12-seed, R64) |
| 38 | Memphis | AAC | 65.4 | 10 | 0.51 | 39 | 16-5 | 36.6% | 9.5% | 3.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2014 Harvard (12-seed, R32) |
| 39 | Texas A&M | SEC | 65.2 | 43 | 14-6 | 2019 Baylor (9-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 40 | Maryland | Big Ten | 65.0 | 11 | 0.56 | 38 | 13-7 | 36.9% | 13.6% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2015 Georgia (10-seed, R64) |
| 41 | Oklahoma State | Big 12 | 65.0 | 11 | 0.56 | 47 | 11-9 | 36.9% | 13.5% | 4.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2022 Indiana (12-seed, R64) |
| 42 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 64.9 | 60 | 12-9 | 2019 Arizona State (11-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 43 | USC | Pac-12 | 64.5 | 11 | 0.54 | 62 | 15-6 | 36.1% | 13.0% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2013 Belmont (11-seed, R64) |
| 44 | Dayton | Atlantic 10 | 64.4 | 12 | 0.52 | 75 | 13-8 | 34.7% | 12.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2018 Alabama (9-seed, R32) |
| 45 | New Mexico | Mountain West | 64.2 | 8 | 0.67 | 29 | 18-3 | 50.5% | 11.2% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2021 UC Santa Barbara (12-seed, R64) |
| 46 | Michigan State | Big Ten | 64.1 | 7 | 0.69 | 41 | 14-7 | 51.0% | 12.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 2021 Virginia Tech (10-seed, R64) |
| 47 | UCF | AAC | 63.9 | 11 | 0.52 | 57 | 13-7 | 35.2% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2018 San Diego State (11-seed, R64) |
| 48 | Florida | SEC | 63.8 | 11 | 0.52 | 46 | 12-8 | 35.0% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 2022 Indiana (12-seed, R64) |
| 49 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | 63.1 | 11 | 0.50 | 65 | 11-9 | 33.9% | 11.5% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2022 Notre Dame (11-seed, R32) |
| 50 | Mississippi State | SEC | 63.0 | 11 | 0.50 | 59 | 12-8 | 33.9% | 11.4% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2018 Syracuse (11-seed, S16) |
| 51 | Michigan | Big Ten | 62.9 | 76 | 11-9 | 2016 Michigan (11-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 52 | Liberty | ASUN | 62.6 | 13 | 0.42 | 53 | 17-5 | 27.4% | 11.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32) |
| 53 | Villanova | Big East | 62.6 | 89 | 10-10 | 2018 Miami (6-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 54 | Northwestern | Big Ten | 62.3 | 11 | 0.47 | 44 | 14-5 | 32.8% | 10.7% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2018 Syracuse (11-seed, S16) |
| 55 | Penn State | Big Ten | 62.1 | 11 | 0.47 | 58 | 13-7 | 32.5% | 10.5% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2018 Virginia Tech (8-seed, R64) |
| 56 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 62.0 | 52 | 12-8 | 2013 Davidson (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 57 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 61.8 | 10 | 0.41 | 55 | 15-6 | 31.2% | 6.7% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 St. John's (9-seed, R64) |
| 58 | Utah State | Mountain West | 61.7 | 11 | 0.45 | 36 | 16-5 | 31.9% | 10.1% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2022 Davidson (10-seed, R64) |
| 59 | Clemson | ACC | 61.5 | 9 | 0.53 | 56 | 17-4 | 41.9% | 8.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32) |
| 60 | Colorado | Pac-12 | 61.3 | 64 | 12-10 | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 61 | Cincinnati | AAC | 60.8 | 80 | 14-7 | 2016 SFA (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 62 | Texas Tech | Big 12 | 60.8 | 77 | 10-10 | 2015 St. John's (9-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 63 | Oral Roberts | Summit League | 60.2 | 12 | 0.40 | 54 | 18-4 | 28.7% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2022 Davidson (10-seed, R64) |
| 64 | Marshall | Sun Belt | 60.0 | 13 | 0.35 | 66 | 17-5 | 24.1% | 8.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2017 New Mexico State (14-seed, R64) |
| 65 | UAB | C-USA | 59.9 | 82 | 14-7 | 2014 BYU (10-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 66 | Nevada | Mountain West | 59.9 | 11 | 0.41 | 34 | 16-5 | 29.4% | 8.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2021 Missouri (9-seed, R64) |
| 67 | Pittsburgh | ACC | 59.9 | 11 | 0.40 | 63 | 14-7 | 29.3% | 8.6% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2022 Providence (4-seed, S16) |
| 68 | North Texas | C-USA | 59.8 | 61 | 17-5 | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 69 | Missouri | SEC | 59.8 | 10 | 0.36 | 49 | 15-5 | 28.4% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2017 Marquette (10-seed, R64) |
| 70 | Seton Hall | Big East | 59.7 | 67 | 12-9 | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 71 | Wisconsin | Big Ten | 59.7 | 9 | 0.48 | 71 | 12-7 | 39.0% | 6.8% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2014 Nebraska (11-seed, R64) |
| 72 | Iona | MAAC | 59.6 | 13 | 0.34 | 69 | 13-6 | 23.6% | 8.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 Montana (14-seed, R64) |
| 73 | Charleston | CAA | 59.5 | 12 | 0.38 | 45 | 21-1 | 27.7% | 8.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 Buffalo (12-seed, R64) |
| 74 | Kent State | MAC | 59.3 | 12 | 0.38 | 50 | 16-4 | 27.5% | 8.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2022 Boise State (8-seed, R64) |
| 75 | Sam Houston | WAC | 59.1 | 12 | 0.37 | 51 | 16-5 | 27.2% | 7.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2018 UNCG (13-seed, R64) |
| 76 | St. John's | Big East | 58.9 | 84 | 13-8 | 2016 Temple (10-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 77 | VCU | Atlantic 10 | 58.7 | 12 | 0.36 | 72 | 16-5 | 26.6% | 7.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 Dayton (11-seed, R32) |
| 78 | Washington State | Pac-12 | 58.5 | 74 | 9-13 | 2013 La Salle (13-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 79 | Saint Louis | Atlantic 10 | 58.4 | 12 | 0.35 | 86 | 14-6 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64) |
| 80 | Syracuse | ACC | 57.9 | 97 | 13-8 | 2016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 81 | Bradley | MVC | 57.4 | 14 | 0.32 | 78 | 14-8 | 23.1% | 7.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2022 New Mexico State (12-seed, R32) |
| 82 | Utah Valley | WAC | 57.3 | 13 | 0.29 | 73 | 16-6 | 21.0% | 6.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 UC Irvine (13-seed, R64) |
| 83 | UC Santa Barbara | Big West | 57.2 | 14 | 0.32 | 87 | 17-3 | 22.9% | 7.1% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 2015 UC Irvine (13-seed, R64) |
| 84 | Wake Forest | ACC | 57.1 | 11 | 0.34 | 70 | 14-7 | 25.6% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 Miami (10-seed, E8) |
| 85 | Southern Miss | Sun Belt | 56.4 | 13 | 0.28 | 68 | 18-4 | 20.0% | 6.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64) |
| 86 | LMU | WCC | 56.4 | 88 | 15-7 | 2019 Vermont (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 87 | BYU | WCC | 56.4 | 96 | 14-9 | 2019 Ohio State (11-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 88 | Santa Clara | WCC | 56.3 | 79 | 16-6 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 89 | Princeton | Ivy League | 56.1 | 14 | 0.30 | 99 | 14-5 | 21.6% | 6.4% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Georgia State (15-seed, R64) |
| 90 | Ole Miss | SEC | 56.0 | 115 | 9-11 | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 91 | Vanderbilt | SEC | 56.0 | 92 | 10-10 | 2013 Temple (9-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 92 | Yale | Ivy League | 55.9 | 14 | 0.29 | 91 | 13-6 | 21.4% | 6.3% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 SFA (14-seed, R64) |
| 93 | Grand Canyon | WAC | 55.8 | 103 | 14-7 | 2016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 94 | Georgia | SEC | 55.6 | 111 | 13-7 | 2014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 95 | Drake | MVC | 55.6 | 14 | 0.29 | 90 | 16-6 | 21.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32) |
| 96 | Louisiana | Sun Belt | 55.6 | 13 | 0.26 | 98 | 17-4 | 19.1% | 5.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64) |
| 97 | James Madison | Sun Belt | 55.6 | 83 | 14-8 | 2018 SFA (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 98 | Toledo | MAC | 55.4 | 105 | 14-6 | 2013 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 99 | UC Irvine | Big West | 55.3 | 13 | 0.26 | 93 | 13-7 | 18.9% | 5.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Western Michigan (14-seed, R64) |
| 100 | San Francisco | WCC | 55.2 | 112 | 14-9 | 2015 Northeastern (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 101 | Hawaii | Big West | 55.2 | 110 | 15-6 | 2018 UNCG (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 102 | UNLV | Mountain West | 55.2 | 81 | 13-7 | 2021 Oregon State (12-seed, E8) | ||||||||
| 103 | Charlotte | C-USA | 55.2 | 94 | 13-8 | 2021 Eastern Washington (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 104 | Furman | SoCon | 55.0 | 14 | 0.27 | 109 | 16-6 | 20.3% | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Charleston (13-seed, R64) |
| 105 | San Jose State | Mountain West | 54.9 | 107 | 13-8 | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 106 | SIU | MVC | 54.8 | 13 | 0.25 | 104 | 17-5 | 18.3% | 5.3% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Wyoming (12-seed, R64) |
| 107 | Tulane | AAC | 54.8 | 101 | 13-7 | 2019 Northeastern (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 108 | Duquesne | Atlantic 10 | 54.8 | 130 | 14-7 | 2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 109 | Hofstra | CAA | 54.7 | 106 | 14-8 | 2021 Eastern Washington (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 110 | Washington | Pac-12 | 54.6 | 118 | 13-9 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 111 | Quinnipiac | MAAC | 54.6 | 122 | 15-5 | 2016 CSU Bakersfield (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 112 | Seattle U | WAC | 54.3 | 14 | 0.26 | 95 | 16-5 | 19.7% | 5.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 UAB (14-seed, R32) |
| 113 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 54.1 | 125 | 8-12 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 114 | Indiana State | MVC | 54.0 | 13 | 0.23 | 127 | 13-9 | 17.6% | 4.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Winthrop (13-seed, R64) |
| 115 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 54.0 | 100 | 10-11 | 2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 116 | UMass Lowell | America East | 53.9 | 15 | 0.16 | 148 | 17-5 | 12.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Mercer (14-seed, R32) |
| 117 | Cornell | Ivy League | 53.9 | 14 | 0.25 | 85 | 14-5 | 19.2% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Eastern Washington (13-seed, R64) |
| 118 | George Mason | Atlantic 10 | 53.9 | 129 | 12-9 | 2022 Jacksonville State (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 119 | Towson | CAA | 53.8 | 145 | 15-7 | 2016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 120 | Youngstown State | Horizon | 53.7 | 15 | 0.16 | 116 | 15-6 | 12.0% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) |
| 121 | Akron | MAC | 53.6 | 119 | 14-6 | 2015 UAB (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 122 | Colorado State | Mountain West | 53.6 | 120 | 10-11 | 2019 Georgia State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 123 | Belmont | MVC | 53.6 | 13 | 0.23 | 117 | 16-6 | 17.1% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Northeastern (14-seed, R64) |
| 124 | Richmond | Atlantic 10 | 53.6 | 137 | 11-10 | 2013 Montana (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 125 | Butler | Big East | 53.5 | 102 | 11-11 | 2022 Yale (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 126 | Colgate | Patriot | 53.5 | 14 | 0.25 | 113 | 15-7 | 18.8% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Belmont (15-seed, R64) |
| 127 | Wichita State | AAC | 53.3 | 142 | 10-10 | 2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 128 | Temple | AAC | 53.3 | 124 | 13-9 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 129 | California Baptist | WAC | 53.1 | 140 | 13-8 | 2018 SFA (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 130 | LSU | SEC | 53.1 | 133 | 12-8 | 2022 Richmond (12-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 131 | Montana State | Big Sky | 53.1 | 15 | 0.15 | 114 | 14-8 | 11.6% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 Yale (14-seed, R64) |
| 132 | South Florida | AAC | 53.0 | 153 | 9-12 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 133 | Middle Tennessee | C-USA | 52.9 | 108 | 13-8 | 2016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 134 | UNCG | SoCon | 52.8 | 14 | 0.24 | 123 | 14-8 | 18.1% | 4.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) |
| 135 | Long Beach State | Big West | 52.5 | 162 | 11-10 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 136 | Southern Utah | WAC | 52.4 | 121 | 15-7 | 2014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 137 | Longwood | Big South | 52.4 | 16 | 0.15 | 146 | 15-7 | 11.1% | 3.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 UAB (14-seed, R32) |
| 138 | Troy | Sun Belt | 52.3 | 14 | 0.23 | 126 | 13-9 | 17.7% | 4.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64) |
| 139 | Ohio | MAC | 52.2 | 138 | 11-9 | 2014 Delaware (13-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 140 | Samford | SoCon | 52.1 | 15 | 0.14 | 135 | 14-8 | 11.0% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Iona (14-seed, R64) |
| 141 | Cleveland State | Horizon | 52.1 | 150 | 12-9 | 2022 Longwood (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 142 | Missouri State | MVC | 51.9 | 136 | 11-10 | 2015 UAB (14-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 143 | Air Force | Mountain West | 51.7 | 151 | 12-9 | 2018 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 144 | SFA | WAC | 51.7 | 132 | 14-7 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 145 | UMass | Atlantic 10 | 51.5 | 157 | 12-8 | 2014 Wofford (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 146 | Eastern Washington | Big Sky | 51.4 | 15 | 0.13 | 144 | 15-7 | 10.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Drexel (16-seed, R64) |
| 147 | Pepperdine | WCC | 51.2 | 187 | 7-15 | 2014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 148 | UC Davis | Big West | 51.2 | 156 | 13-8 | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 149 | ODU | Sun Belt | 51.2 | 170 | 12-9 | 2016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 150 | DePaul | Big East | 51.1 | 155 | 9-12 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 151 | Harvard | Ivy League | 51.0 | 139 | 12-8 | 2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 152 | Vermont | America East | 51.0 | 16 | 0.14 | 152 | 11-10 | 10.2% | 2.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) |
| 153 | Notre Dame | ACC | 50.9 | 185 | 9-12 | 2014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 154 | Davidson | Atlantic 10 | 50.9 | 160 | 10-10 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 155 | UC Riverside | Big West | 50.8 | 14 | 0.21 | 147 | 14-7 | 16.2% | 3.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Radford (16-seed, R64) |
| 156 | Penn | Ivy League | 50.8 | 174 | 10-11 | 2021 Drexel (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 157 | Fordham | Atlantic 10 | 50.7 | 143 | 16-4 | 2013 Albany (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 158 | Radford | Big South | 50.7 | 16 | 0.13 | 158 | 13-9 | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 UNC Asheville (15-seed, R64) |
| 159 | Georgia Tech | ACC | 50.6 | 191 | 8-12 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 160 | UNCW | CAA | 50.5 | 128 | 17-6 | 2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 161 | Fresno State | Mountain West | 50.4 | 180 | 7-12 | 2022 Yale (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 162 | Florida State | ACC | 50.4 | 202 | 7-14 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 163 | Kennesaw State | ASUN | 50.4 | 15 | 0.12 | 131 | 16-6 | 9.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64) |
| 164 | Drexel | CAA | 50.3 | 164 | 12-9 | 2013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 165 | Lipscomb | ASUN | 50.3 | 175 | 13-9 | 2022 Montana State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 166 | Eastern Kentucky | ASUN | 50.2 | 15 | 0.12 | 165 | 13-9 | 9.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) |
| 167 | FGCU | ASUN | 50.1 | 141 | 14-8 | 2019 Abilene Christian (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 168 | Chattanooga | SoCon | 50.1 | 177 | 11-11 | 2018 Iona (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 169 | UTEP | C-USA | 50.1 | 172 | 11-9 | 2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 170 | Murray State | MVC | 50.0 | 173 | 11-10 | 2016 Buffalo (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 171 | Louisiana Tech | C-USA | 50.0 | 159 | 11-10 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 172 | Buffalo | MAC | 50.0 | 167 | 10-10 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 173 | St. Bonaventure | Atlantic 10 | 49.9 | 186 | 10-11 | 2015 North Dakota State (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 174 | Rice | C-USA | 49.8 | 134 | 15-5 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 175 | Ball State | MAC | 49.7 | 154 | 13-7 | 2017 Troy (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 176 | UNC Asheville | Big South | 49.6 | 15 | 0.12 | 178 | 16-6 | 9.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 North Dakota (15-seed, R64) |
| 177 | Minnesota | Big Ten | 49.6 | 213 | 7-12 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 178 | SMU | AAC | 49.5 | 211 | 7-14 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 179 | Cal State Fullerton | Big West | 49.5 | 176 | 11-11 | 2013 James Madison (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 180 | Boston College | ACC | 49.4 | 196 | 10-11 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 181 | Siena | MAAC | 49.4 | 15 | 0.12 | 171 | 13-7 | 9.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) |
| 182 | East Carolina | AAC | 49.4 | 217 | 11-10 | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 183 | Northwestern State | Southland | 49.4 | 16 | 0.12 | 189 | 13-8 | 9.3% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) |
| 184 | South Carolina | SEC | 49.4 | 278 | 8-12 | 2022 Georgia State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 185 | Milwaukee | Horizon | 49.3 | 15 | 0.12 | 161 | 14-7 | 9.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64) |
| 186 | UNI | MVC | 49.2 | 184 | 12-9 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 187 | App State | Sun Belt | 49.2 | 193 | 12-10 | 2018 Wright State (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 188 | Gardner-Webb | Big South | 49.2 | 192 | 10-11 | 2022 Yale (14-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 189 | Northern Kentucky | Horizon | 49.2 | 16 | 0.12 | 203 | 14-8 | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2013 James Madison (16-seed, R64) |
| 190 | Wyoming | Mountain West | 49.2 | 200 | 6-14 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 191 | Norfolk State | MEAC | 49.2 | 16 | 0.12 | 190 | 13-7 | 9.2% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2015 Albany (14-seed, R64) |
| 192 | Sacramento State | Big Sky | 49.0 | 195 | 12-9 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 193 | Rider | MAAC | 49.0 | 226 | 9-9 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 194 | Western Kentucky | C-USA | 49.0 | 181 | 11-10 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 195 | Stetson | ASUN | 49.0 | 14 | 0.18 | 149 | 11-9 | 14.6% | 3.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) |
| 196 | Portland | WCC | 48.9 | 163 | 11-12 | 2014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 197 | San Diego | WCC | 48.9 | 221 | 10-12 | 2017 South Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 198 | George Washington | Atlantic 10 | 48.9 | 179 | 11-9 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 199 | South Dakota State | Summit League | 48.8 | 166 | 11-10 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 200 | Rhode Island | Atlantic 10 | 48.7 | 230 | 7-13 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 201 | Georgetown | Big East | 48.6 | 242 | 6-15 | 2022 Wright State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 202 | Texas State | Sun Belt | 48.5 | 212 | 11-11 | 2013 James Madison (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 203 | Queens | ASUN | 48.4 | 208 | 14-8 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 204 | American | Patriot | 48.4 | 201 | 13-7 | 2018 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 205 | South Alabama | Sun Belt | 48.4 | 205 | 8-13 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 206 | Montana | Big Sky | 48.4 | 183 | 9-12 | 2021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16) | ||||||||
| 207 | Saint Joseph's | Atlantic 10 | 48.3 | 223 | 9-11 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 208 | Wofford | SoCon | 48.2 | 220 | 12-10 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 209 | Navy | Patriot | 48.2 | 198 | 11-10 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 210 | Detroit Mercy | Horizon | 48.2 | 231 | 8-13 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 211 | Purdue Fort Wayne | Horizon | 48.1 | 197 | 14-8 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 212 | Bryant | America East | 48.1 | 169 | 13-7 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 213 | Jacksonville | ASUN | 48.1 | 182 | 11-9 | 2015 Robert Morris (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 214 | New Mexico State | WAC | 48.0 | 207 | 7-13 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 215 | SIUE | OVC | 47.9 | 16 | 0.11 | 168 | 14-8 | 8.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2022 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64) |
| 216 | Delaware | CAA | 47.7 | 194 | 11-11 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 217 | Brown | Ivy League | 47.7 | 209 | 10-9 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 218 | UMBC | America East | 47.7 | 14 | 0.17 | 206 | 14-8 | 13.6% | 2.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) |
| 219 | Grambling | SWAC | 47.6 | 16 | 0.11 | 210 | 12-7 | 8.4% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Hartford (16-seed, R64) |
| 220 | Kansas City | Summit League | 47.6 | 244 | 9-13 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 221 | A&M-Corpus Christi | Southland | 47.5 | 16 | 0.11 | 238 | 12-9 | 8.3% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) |
| 222 | Oregon State | Pac-12 | 47.4 | 214 | 8-13 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 223 | Utah Tech | WAC | 47.4 | 188 | 10-11 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 224 | Tarleton | WAC | 47.3 | 199 | 11-10 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 225 | NC Central | MEAC | 47.3 | 16 | 0.10 | 215 | 10-9 | 8.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) |
| 226 | Weber State | Big Sky | 47.2 | 216 | 11-10 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 227 | Wright State | Horizon | 47.0 | 228 | 12-10 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 228 | Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | 47.0 | 222 | 12-10 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 229 | Southern Indiana | OVC | 47.0 | 219 | 13-9 | 2015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 230 | St. Thomas | Summit League | 46.9 | 204 | 14-9 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 231 | Fairfield | MAAC | 46.9 | 233 | 10-10 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 232 | Mercer | SoCon | 46.8 | 239 | 10-12 | 2014 Albany (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 233 | Army | Patriot | 46.7 | 234 | 11-11 | 2019 Gardner Webb (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 234 | Georgia State | Sun Belt | 46.6 | 246 | 9-12 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 235 | Alcorn | SWAC | 46.6 | 256 | 9-10 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 236 | Loyola Chicago | Atlantic 10 | 46.5 | 276 | 7-13 | 2019 Bradley (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 237 | Pacific | WCC | 46.5 | 224 | 10-12 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 238 | Coastal Carolina | Sun Belt | 46.5 | 263 | 10-11 | 2014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 239 | Abilene Christian | WAC | 46.5 | 243 | 10-11 | 2018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 240 | Bowling Green | MAC | 46.5 | 235 | 10-10 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 241 | ETSU | SoCon | 46.3 | 270 | 8-14 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 242 | Southern | SWAC | 46.0 | 16 | 0.09 | 218 | 10-10 | 7.6% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) |
| 243 | California | Pac-12 | 45.8 | 288 | 3-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 244 | Saint Peter's | MAAC | 45.7 | 315 | 8-12 | 2015 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 245 | FIU | C-USA | 45.7 | 249 | 10-11 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 246 | Portland State | Big Sky | 45.6 | 225 | 9-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 247 | Nicholls | Southland | 45.6 | 16 | 0.09 | 227 | 10-10 | 7.4% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Appalachian St. () |
| 248 | North Dakota State | Summit League | 45.6 | 245 | 8-13 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 249 | Niagara | MAAC | 45.6 | 241 | 10-9 | 2021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 250 | Tulsa | AAC | 45.5 | 286 | 5-14 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 251 | Robert Morris | Horizon | 45.4 | 252 | 9-12 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 252 | Northeastern | CAA | 45.3 | 267 | 8-12 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 253 | Lafayette | Patriot | 45.3 | 248 | 7-15 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 254 | Campbell | Big South | 45.3 | 255 | 9-12 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 255 | La Salle | Atlantic 10 | 45.2 | 271 | 8-12 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 256 | Boston U | Patriot | 45.2 | 251 | 10-12 | 2021 Appalachian St. () | ||||||||
| 257 | Howard | MEAC | 45.2 | 16 | 0.09 | 258 | 12-10 | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
| 258 | UT Martin | OVC | 45.2 | 16 | 0.09 | 232 | 14-8 | 7.2% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) |
| 259 | Western Illinois | Summit League | 45.0 | 229 | 13-8 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 260 | Canisius | MAAC | 45.0 | 275 | 5-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 261 | SEMO | OVC | 45.0 | 16 | 0.09 | 236 | 11-11 | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) |
| 262 | Morgan State | MEAC | 45.0 | 16 | 0.09 | 237 | 11-9 | 7.1% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) |
| 263 | North Carolina A&T | CAA | 45.0 | 269 | 11-12 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 264 | UT Arlington | WAC | 44.9 | 297 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 265 | Illinois State | MVC | 44.8 | 261 | 8-14 | 2018 UMBC (16-seed, R32) | ||||||||
| 266 | Charleston Southern | Big South | 44.8 | 293 | 7-13 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 267 | New Hampshire | America East | 44.8 | 254 | 9-10 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 268 | Northern Colorado | Big Sky | 44.7 | 266 | 7-13 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 269 | ULM | Sun Belt | 44.7 | 291 | 10-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 270 | Western Carolina | SoCon | 44.7 | 260 | 11-11 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 271 | Lehigh | Patriot | 44.7 | 247 | 12-8 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 272 | Wagner | NEC | 44.7 | 16 | 0.09 | 274 | 11-8 | 7.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) |
| 273 | Prairie View | SWAC | 44.6 | 292 | 7-14 | 2013 North Carolina A&T (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 274 | Dartmouth | Ivy League | 44.5 | 281 | 7-13 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 275 | Bellarmine | ASUN | 44.5 | 262 | 10-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 276 | Oakland | Horizon | 44.5 | 257 | 9-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 277 | Northern Illinois | MAC | 44.5 | 259 | 8-12 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 278 | UMES | MEAC | 44.4 | 16 | 0.08 | 240 | 11-8 | 6.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
| 279 | Western Michigan | MAC | 44.4 | 295 | 6-14 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 280 | Mount St. Mary's | MAAC | 44.3 | 268 | 7-14 | 2017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 281 | Winthrop | Big South | 44.1 | 273 | 9-13 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 282 | Idaho State | Big Sky | 44.1 | 253 | 7-14 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 283 | Valparaiso | MVC | 43.9 | 289 | 9-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 284 | High Point | Big South | 43.9 | 299 | 10-11 | 2021 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 285 | Jacksonville State | ASUN | 43.9 | 307 | 9-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 286 | UC San Diego | Big West | 43.9 | 277 | 8-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 287 | North Florida | ASUN | 43.8 | 283 | 8-13 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 288 | Southeastern Louisiana | Southland | 43.8 | 16 | 0.08 | 250 | 12-9 | 6.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) |
| 289 | Chicago State | DI Independent | 43.7 | 282 | 5-17 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 290 | UIC | MVC | 43.6 | 280 | 9-13 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 291 | USC Upstate | Big South | 43.6 | 290 | 9-11 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 292 | Texas Southern | SWAC | 43.6 | 305 | 7-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 293 | Louisville | ACC | 43.5 | 334 | 2-18 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 294 | Cal Poly | Big West | 43.5 | 279 | 7-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 295 | The Citadel | SoCon | 43.4 | 300 | 9-12 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 296 | Denver | Summit League | 43.4 | 264 | 12-11 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 297 | Northern Arizona | Big Sky | 43.3 | 294 | 5-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 298 | North Alabama | ASUN | 43.3 | 296 | 12-10 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 299 | Morehead State | OVC | 43.2 | 16 | 0.08 | 265 | 13-9 | 6.4% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
| 300 | Maine | America East | 43.0 | 272 | 8-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 301 | Bucknell | Patriot | 43.0 | 302 | 8-14 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 302 | UTRGV | WAC | 43.0 | 284 | 10-11 | 2019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 303 | Tennessee Tech | OVC | 42.9 | 285 | 10-12 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 304 | FDU | NEC | 42.9 | 16 | 0.08 | 306 | 13-10 | 6.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) |
| 305 | Austin Peay | ASUN | 42.7 | 304 | 8-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 306 | Marist | MAAC | 42.7 | 303 | 7-11 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 307 | South Dakota | Summit League | 42.7 | 310 | 9-12 | 2019 Iona (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 308 | Texas A&M Commerce | Southland | 42.6 | 301 | 9-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 309 | William & Mary | CAA | 42.6 | 298 | 9-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 310 | Miami (OH) | MAC | 42.5 | 317 | 7-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 311 | Idaho | Big Sky | 42.4 | 287 | 8-14 | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 312 | Arkansas State | Sun Belt | 42.4 | 312 | 9-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 313 | Central Michigan | MAC | 42.3 | 314 | 7-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 314 | Jackson State | SWAC | 42.3 | 323 | 6-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 315 | Presbyterian | Big South | 42.2 | 339 | 5-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 316 | Manhattan | MAAC | 42.2 | 325 | 6-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 317 | North Dakota | Summit League | 42.0 | 311 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 318 | CSU Bakersfield | Big West | 42.0 | 313 | 6-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 319 | UTSA | C-USA | 41.8 | 326 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 320 | NJIT | America East | 41.6 | 322 | 6-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 321 | Tennessee State | OVC | 41.5 | 321 | 11-11 | 2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 322 | Omaha | Summit League | 41.5 | 309 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 323 | CSUN | Big West | 41.4 | 329 | 4-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 324 | Sacred Heart | NEC | 41.4 | 16 | 0.07 | 320 | 11-12 | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
| 325 | UAPB | SWAC | 41.4 | 308 | 9-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 326 | Saint Francis | NEC | 41.4 | 16 | 0.07 | 319 | 8-12 | 5.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64) |
| 327 | Alabama State | SWAC | 41.3 | 332 | 6-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 328 | Eastern Michigan | MAC | 41.3 | 331 | 4-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 329 | Stony Brook | CAA | 41.3 | 324 | 7-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 330 | Binghamton | America East | 41.2 | 16 | 0.07 | 327 | 8-12 | 5.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
| 331 | Merrimack | NEC | 41.1 | 337 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 332 | South Carolina State | MEAC | 40.8 | 348 | 3-18 | 2016 Hampton (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 333 | Central Connecticut | NEC | 40.8 | 336 | 5-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 334 | Central Arkansas | ASUN | 40.8 | 330 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 335 | Holy Cross | Patriot | 40.7 | 328 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 336 | Alabama A&M | SWAC | 40.6 | 344 | 7-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 337 | Coppin State | MEAC | 40.6 | 316 | 6-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 338 | Little Rock | OVC | 40.5 | 340 | 6-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 339 | Stonehill | NEC | 40.5 | 318 | 9-14 | 2017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 340 | UAlbany | America East | 40.5 | 335 | 6-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 341 | Loyola Maryland | Patriot | 40.2 | 341 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 342 | McNeese | Southland | 40.2 | 333 | 5-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 343 | VMI | SoCon | 40.1 | 346 | 5-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 344 | Hampton | CAA | 40.0 | 349 | 5-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 345 | New Orleans | Southland | 39.9 | 350 | 6-13 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 346 | Columbia | Ivy League | 39.8 | 343 | 6-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 347 | Eastern Illinois | OVC | 39.8 | 338 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 348 | Elon | CAA | 39.7 | 352 | 2-19 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 349 | Lindenwood | OVC | 39.6 | 342 | 7-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 350 | UIW | Southland | 39.6 | 347 | 9-12 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 351 | Evansville | MVC | 39.5 | 345 | 4-18 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 352 | Bethune-Cookman | SWAC | 39.1 | 351 | 6-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 353 | Houston Christian | Southland | 38.7 | 353 | 7-14 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 354 | St. Francis Brooklyn | NEC | 38.6 | 354 | 10-11 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 355 | Monmouth | CAA | 37.6 | 359 | 1-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 356 | Delaware State | MEAC | 37.4 | 355 | 2-16 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 357 | Mississippi Valley State | SWAC | 37.3 | 357 | 2-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 358 | Lamar | Southland | 37.2 | 356 | 6-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 359 | Florida A&M | SWAC | 37.2 | 358 | 3-15 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 360 | IUPUI | Horizon | 35.7 | 361 | 3-19 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 361 | Hartford | DI Independent | 35.5 | 362 | 5-17 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 362 | Green Bay | Horizon | 35.3 | 360 | 2-20 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) | ||||||||
| 363 | LIU | NEC | 35.0 | 363 | 3-18 | 2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64) |
Tournament Index highlights:
- Correctly predicted each of the previous three national champions
- Correctly predicted 14 Final Four teams since 2013
- “Upset Alert” teams have lost 42 percent of their first-round matchups compared to the national average of 24 percent
- “Cinderella Watch” teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 or further 28 percent of the time compared to the national average of 7.8 percent
- “Dark Horse” teams have won 38 percent more NCAA Tournament games than other 5-11 seeds
How it works: Teams are given 0-to-100 power ratings based on key metrics that predict March Madness success, according to our research. These metrics include team efficiencies, Four Factors, NBA talent, tournament experience, preseason rankings and more.
After the bracket release on Selection Sunday, every team has a 0-to-100 “path rating” that determines the difficulty of their tournament path based on likely tournament opponents. For example, a 2-seed in a weaker region may have a more favorable draw than a 1-seed in a stronger region, which is reflected by this rating.
Round-by-round win probabilities are then generated for every team. From there, using ESPN’s Tournament Challenge pick data, we identify which teams provide the best overall value to help win your bracket pool. Value is determined by how many bracket points you would be expected to “gain” over your pool based on correctly selecting a particular team.
Here’s an example: In 2021, 6-seed BYU faced 11-seed UCLA in the first round. Our model gave BYU a 56.8% win probability compared to the 34.2% who selected UCLA to advance while our model gave UCLA a 43.2% win probability compared to the 65.8% who selected BYU to advance. Standard bracket formats typically follow the 10-20-40-80-160-320 round-by-round scoring format. The calculation for first-round pick value looks like the following:
- BYU: 0.568 win probability * 0.342 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 1.9 pick value
- UCLA: 0.423 win probability * 0.658 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 2.8 pick value
These calculations continue through the remaining five rounds and are summed for the team’s final overall pick value. The pick value indicates which teams you should select in each round of your bracket to earn the most expected points possible over your bracket pool.
Our model outsmarts the competition.
First and foremost, tournament seeds can deceive. Though the 2014 Kentucky team underwhelmed during the regular season, John Calipari’s Wildcats still had one of the tournament’s most talented rosters that year. Remember, the Cats were the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll going into the 2013-14 campaign.
As an 8-seed, Kentucky’s Power Rating of 79.6 would have even been considered above-average for a 3-seed, let alone an 8. It should come as somewhat less of a surprise, then, that the woefully under-seeded Wildcats advanced all the way to the national title game that year.
Meanwhile, a team like 2017 Minnesota — with a Power Rating of just 66.6 — entered the Big Dance as a 5-seed, but had a relative strength more resembling a 9-seed. Tournament Index would have said to avoid this 5-seed like the plague. As it happened, the Gophers trailed 12-seed Middle Tennessee by as many as 17 points in an eventual 81-72 first-round loss.
The selection committee has an impossible job to “correctly” select and seed all 68 teams, which means there is always hidden value to be found. To that end, Tournament Index shines a light into all the nooks and crannies of the bracket.
Below are tables showing how to interpret the Tournament Index ratings and identify potential advantages in your bracket pool.
NCAA Tournament wins based on Tournament Index Power Rating
| Power Rating | Average NCAA Tournament Wins |
| 88 or higher | 3.84 |
| 80 to 87.9 | 2.21 |
| 70 to 79.9 | 1.15 |
| 60 to 69.9 | 0.61 |
| 59.9 or lower | 0.13 |
Tournament Index Power Ratings By Seed
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