Welcome to Tournament Index — the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.

Heat Check CBB’s Tournament Index is the most accurate March Madness projections model on the Internet.

The purpose: We project how March Madness teams will perform based on their own strengths as well as their bracket placement, identifying under-seeded and over-seeded teams and the difficulty of their tournament path.

Current RatingsHistorical Team Ratings
Upset AlertsCinderella Watch
Dark HorsesDraw Difficulty

Tournament Index: 2022-23 Ratings

Ratings are updated every morning.

Projected seeds are courtesy of BracketMatrix.com. Only teams that appear in the most recent BracketMatrix update are included in tournament advancement probabilities.

Clicking the + icon will display tournament advancement probabilities by round as well as the team's most similar historical March Madness team, determined by similarity scores.
RANKTEAMCONFRATINGSEEDAVG. WINSNETRECORDFirst RoundSecond RoundSweet 16Elite EightFinal FourChampMost Similar Team
1HoustonAAC90.113.23131-294.9%76.3%59.2%42.9%29.7%19.7%2014 Arizona (1-seed, E8)
2UCLAPac-1286.522.79429-590.1%73.3%51.6%31.8%20.3%12.3%2022 Baylor (1-seed, R32)
3AlabamaSEC84.612.72228-592.8%68.7%48.5%31.3%19.1%11.1%2021 Michigan (1-seed, E8)
4GonzagaWCC83.932.44628-587.4%65.2%43.2%24.8%14.9%8.4%2022 Purdue (3-seed, S16)
5TennesseeSEC83.642.18323-1081.8%61.3%33.6%21.2%12.6%7.1%2013 Michigan State (3-seed, S16)
6UConnBig East83.332.38725-887.0%64.1%41.9%23.6%13.9%7.7%2017 Florida State (3-seed, R32)
7KansasBig 1281.712.46827-791.5%64.2%42.6%25.6%14.4%7.7%2015 Kansas (2-seed, R32)
8ArizonaPac-1280.922.301128-686.3%64.8%40.2%21.1%11.6%6.0%2018 Purdue (2-seed, S16)
9TexasBig 1280.322.25926-885.8%63.8%39.0%20.1%10.8%5.5%2017 Purdue (4-seed, S16)
10PurdueBig Ten79.612.28528-590.3%60.6%38.3%21.7%11.5%5.7%2019 Purdue (3-seed, E8)
11DukeACC79.651.722526-877.9%48.1%23.1%13.0%6.9%3.4%2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16)
12BaylorBig 1278.722.121222-1084.5%61.1%35.8%17.5%9.0%4.3%2014 Michigan (2-seed, E8)
13ArkansasSEC78.181.231820-1364.3%27.2%16.5%8.9%4.5%2.1%2018 Kentucky (5-seed, S16)
14CreightonBig East77.471.361421-1269.2%33.1%18.6%8.7%4.2%1.9%2014 Oklahoma State (9-seed, R64)
15KentuckySEC77.361.492121-1172.3%38.3%21.4%9.9%4.9%2.2%2016 Duke (4-seed, S16)
16IndianaBig Ten76.541.602822-1173.7%48.0%20.6%10.6%5.1%2.3%2022 Ohio State (7-seed, R32)
17XavierBig East74.241.442325-970.7%43.5%17.1%8.2%3.6%1.5%2016 Miami (3-seed, S16)
18Saint Mary'sWCC73.561.231026-766.9%31.1%15.4%6.2%2.6%1.0%2021 Colorado (5-seed, R32)
19MarquetteBig East72.831.571328-676.9%44.9%21.7%8.5%3.5%1.4%2017 Butler (4-seed, S16)
20IllinoisBig Ten72.190.903320-1255.5%18.3%9.3%4.1%1.7%0.6%2018 Texas A&M (7-seed, S16)
21Kansas StateBig 1272.131.521723-976.1%43.5%20.6%7.8%3.2%1.2%2015 Maryland (4-seed, R32)
22TCUBig 1271.951.222921-1268.0%33.6%12.0%5.3%2.1%0.8%2022 North Carolina (8-seed, RUNNER-UP)
23AuburnSEC71.790.883220-1254.9%17.8%8.9%3.9%1.5%0.6%2022 North Carolina (8-seed, RUNNER-UP)
24VirginiaACC71.541.273025-766.8%38.2%13.4%5.8%2.3%0.8%2015 Maryland (4-seed, R32)
25San Diego StateMountain West70.651.141627-666.0%31.1%10.5%4.4%1.7%0.6%2019 Florida (10-seed, R32)
26FAUC-USA69.780.771531-350.8%15.0%7.0%2.8%1.0%0.3%2019 Utah State (8-seed, R64)
27Texas A&MSEC69.461.002425-860.6%24.2%10.3%3.5%1.3%0.4%2013 VCU (5-seed, R32)
28North CarolinaACC68.4110.734420-1345.0%17.2%7.1%2.3%0.8%0.3%2021 Villanova (5-seed, S16)
29Iowa StateBig 1268.451.032019-1362.6%27.2%8.3%3.2%1.1%0.3%2017 Minnesota (5-seed, R64)
30West VirginiaBig 1267.980.691919-1447.8%12.9%5.7%2.1%0.7%0.2%2016 Texas Tech (8-seed, R64)
31MarylandBig Ten67.780.692621-1247.5%12.7%5.6%2.1%0.7%0.2%2015 Xavier (6-seed, S16)
32Utah StateMountain West67.3100.832226-855.7%17.7%7.0%2.2%0.7%0.2%2018 Davidson (12-seed, R64)
33MemphisAAC66.790.663425-846.5%11.9%5.0%1.8%0.6%0.2%2022 Virginia Tech (11-seed, R64)
34MiamiACC66.560.863525-756.0%19.8%7.6%2.2%0.7%0.2%2018 TCU (6-seed, R64)
35IowaBig Ten66.290.643819-1345.8%11.4%4.7%1.6%0.5%0.1%2017 Oklahoma State (10-seed, R64)
36Boise StateMountain West65.6100.772724-953.0%15.7%5.8%1.7%0.5%0.1%2016 Dayton (7-seed, R64)
37OregonPac-1265.34719-142021 UCLA (11-seed, F4)
38ProvidenceBig East65.0110.595321-1139.4%13.1%4.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%2017 UNCW (12-seed, R64)
39MichiganBig Ten64.95417-152016 Michigan (11-seed, R64)
40RutgersBig Ten64.8110.584319-1439.1%12.8%4.5%1.2%0.4%0.1%2013 Oregon (12-seed, S16)
41USCPac-1264.7100.734822-1051.4%14.5%5.2%1.4%0.4%0.1%2022 Virginia Tech (11-seed, R64)
42Michigan StateBig Ten64.370.693119-1248.6%13.5%4.7%1.3%0.4%0.1%2018 Kansas State (9-seed, E8)
43North TexasC-USA64.04226-72016 SFA (14-seed, R32)
44Ohio StateBig Ten63.95716-192015 Oregon (8-seed, R32)
45NC StateACC63.8110.553723-1037.6%11.8%4.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%2014 NC State (12-seed, R64)
46VillanovaBig East63.77217-162018 Oklahoma (10-seed, R64)
47DaytonAtlantic 1063.6130.507522-1131.2%13.7%3.3%1.0%0.3%0.1%2019 UCF (9-seed, R32)
48Penn StateBig Ten63.4100.685522-1249.2%13.1%4.4%1.1%0.3%0.1%2017 Virginia Tech (9-seed, R64)
49NorthwesternBig Ten63.370.654021-1147.0%12.4%4.2%1.1%0.3%0.1%2019 Minnesota (10-seed, R32)
50Oklahoma StateBig 1263.2110.534118-1536.5%11.1%3.7%0.9%0.3%0.1%2021 Virginia Tech (10-seed, R64)
51Mississippi StateSEC62.9110.524621-1236.2%10.9%3.6%0.9%0.2%0.1%2018 Syracuse (11-seed, S16)
52UABC-USA62.75825-92014 Dayton (11-seed, E8)
53UCFAAC62.77118-142019 Arizona State (11-seed, R64)
54LibertyASUN62.24526-82018 Bucknell (14-seed, R64)
55OklahomaBig 1262.06715-172022 Notre Dame (11-seed, R32)
56CincinnatiAAC61.87621-122016 SFA (14-seed, R32)
57IonaMAAC61.6130.436327-728.4%11.5%2.5%0.7%0.2%0.0%2016 Stony Brook (13-seed, R64)
58Oral RobertsSummit League61.5120.493930-434.3%11.2%2.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%2022 Davidson (10-seed, R64)
59ClemsonACC61.2110.466123-1033.5%9.3%2.8%0.6%0.2%0.0%2022 Colorado State (6-seed, R64)
60YaleIvy League61.1130.426421-727.8%11.1%2.3%0.6%0.2%0.0%2017 Vermont (13-seed, R64)
61CharlestonCAA60.9120.475131-333.3%10.6%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%2016 UNCW (13-seed, R64)
62Texas TechBig 1260.86216-162013 La Salle (13-seed, S16)
63MissouriSEC60.870.574924-942.8%10.0%3.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%2017 Marquette (10-seed, R64)
64Kent StateMAC60.6130.416828-627.1%10.6%2.2%0.6%0.1%0.0%2013 New Mexico State (13-seed, R64)
65DrakeMVC60.4120.465227-732.6%10.2%2.1%0.6%0.1%0.0%2017 Princeton (12-seed, R64)
66NevadaMountain West60.4110.443622-1032.4%8.6%2.5%0.5%0.1%0.0%2022 Miami (10-seed, E8)
67VCUAtlantic 1060.3120.456626-732.4%10.0%2.0%0.5%0.1%0.0%2016 Dayton (7-seed, R64)
68ColoradoPac-1260.27017-162013 La Salle (13-seed, S16)
69UtahPac-1260.28017-152014 Tulsa (13-seed, R64)
70New MexicoMountain West60.05022-112018 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64)
71Washington StatePac-1260.06917-162013 La Salle (13-seed, S16)
72Arizona StatePac-1260.0110.436522-1231.8%8.3%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%2021 Georgetown (12-seed, R64)
73FloridaSEC59.95916-162017 Princeton (12-seed, R64)
74Utah ValleyWAC59.77425-82017 ETSU (13-seed, R64)
75MarshallSun Belt59.38324-82017 New Mexico State (14-seed, R64)
76Sam HoustonWAC59.16025-72018 UNCG (13-seed, R64)
77PittsburghACC59.1110.415622-1130.5%7.7%2.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%2014 North Dakota State (12-seed, R32)
78Seton HallBig East59.07817-152021 Missouri (9-seed, R64)
79BYUWCC58.58419-152013 La Salle (13-seed, S16)
80BradleyMVC58.27325-92015 UC Irvine (13-seed, R64)
81VanderbiltSEC58.1110.388220-1429.1%6.9%1.8%0.3%0.1%0.0%2017 UNCW (12-seed, R64)
82ToledoMAC57.87927-72013 Iona (15-seed, R64)
83St. John'sBig East57.69818-152016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64)
84WisconsinBig Ten57.58117-142013 Villanova (9-seed, R64)
85FurmanSoCon57.4140.298827-720.1%6.7%1.7%0.3%0.1%0.0%2016 Iona (13-seed, R64)
86HofstraCAA57.48624-92021 Liberty (13-seed, R64)
87Virginia TechACC57.47719-142018 Charleston (13-seed, R64)
88Santa ClaraWCC57.18523-92016 South Dakota State (12-seed, R64)
89LouisianaSun Belt56.9130.328926-722.6%7.5%1.3%0.3%0.1%0.0%2014 Louisiana (14-seed, R64)
90StanfordPac-1256.99514-192013 South Dakota State (13-seed, R64)
91Indiana StateMVC56.49322-122018 Georgia State (15-seed, R64)
92UC IrvineBig West56.49723-112021 Eastern Washington (14-seed, R64)
93Saint LouisAtlantic 1056.110221-122018 Charleston (13-seed, R64)
94San Jose StateMountain West56.19620-132013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64)
95South AlabamaSun Belt56.010619-162017 Bucknell (13-seed, R64)
96Grand CanyonWAC55.6140.2512024-1118.3%5.6%1.3%0.2%0.0%0.0%2016 Iona (13-seed, R64)
97Southern MissSun Belt55.58725-72017 Northern Kentucky (15-seed, R64)
98UMass LowellAmerica East55.211526-82014 Mercer (14-seed, R32)
99Wake ForestACC55.19119-142019 Northeastern (13-seed, R64)
100James MadisonSun Belt55.19422-112016 Chattanooga (12-seed, R64)
101Wichita StateAAC55.010917-152019 Vermont (13-seed, R64)
102AkronMAC54.910522-112018 Charleston (13-seed, R64)
103UC Santa BarbaraBig West54.8140.2410127-717.5%5.2%1.1%0.2%0.0%0.0%2017 Iona (14-seed, R64)
104ColgatePatriot54.8150.229926-815.1%5.2%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%2015 Belmont (15-seed, R64)
105UNLVMountain West54.79019-132021 Oregon State (12-seed, E8)
106San FranciscoWCC54.710820-142017 Iona (14-seed, R64)
107WashingtonPac-1254.612216-162013 Montana (13-seed, R64)
108TowsonCAA54.613221-122017 Florida Gulf Coast (14-seed, R64)
109Ole MissSEC54.412612-212016 Fresno State (14-seed, R64)
110NebraskaBig Ten54.39216-162022 Richmond (12-seed, R32)
111PrincetonIvy League54.3140.2311720-817.0%4.9%1.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%2021 Drexel (16-seed, R64)
112UNCGSoCon54.111320-122016 Middle Tennessee (15-seed, R32)
113DuquesneAtlantic 1054.013120-122016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64)
114LMUWCC53.910719-122015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
115HawaiiBig West53.812322-112018 SFA (14-seed, R64)
116Eastern WashingtonBig Sky53.713022-102019 Colgate (15-seed, R64)
117VermontAmerica East53.6150.2011123-1014.1%4.6%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%2019 Northeastern (13-seed, R64)
118Youngstown StateHorizon53.512424-92015 Eastern Washington (13-seed, R64)
119Colorado StateMountain West53.411015-182018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
120TulaneAAC53.410020-112019 Northeastern (13-seed, R64)
121OhioMAC53.313819-142014 Delaware (13-seed, R64)
122SyracuseACC53.212717-152018 Charleston (13-seed, R64)
123Montana StateBig Sky53.2150.1910325-913.8%4.4%0.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%2022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
124CharlotteC-USA53.211218-142018 Marshall (13-seed, R32)
125Middle TennesseeC-USA52.911919-142016 Buffalo (14-seed, R64)
126SIUMVC52.712123-102015 Wyoming (12-seed, R64)
127BelmontMVC52.711621-112018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
128PennIvy League52.513917-132017 Iona (14-seed, R64)
129TempleAAC52.511816-162015 Northeastern (14-seed, R64)
130Southern UtahWAC52.510422-122014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
131Cal State FullertonBig West52.312520-132014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
132UNC AshevilleBig South52.2150.1814027-713.0%4.0%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.0%2022 Montana State (14-seed, R64)
133TroySun Belt52.213520-132013 Pacific (15-seed, R64)
134UC RiversideBig West52.014122-122018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
135Seattle UWAC52.014320-122013 James Madison (16-seed, R64)
136Missouri StateMVC51.914217-152015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
137Kennesaw StateASUN51.8140.1911426-814.8%3.8%0.7%0.1%0.0%0.0%2013 Pacific (15-seed, R64)
138ButlerBig East51.813314-182022 Yale (14-seed, R64)
139George MasonAtlantic 1051.812920-132019 Bradley (15-seed, R64)
140Long Beach StateBig West51.616317-162016 Green Bay (14-seed, R64)
141SFAWAC51.613719-132015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
142FordhamAtlantic 1051.513425-82013 Albany (15-seed, R64)
143Cleveland StateHorizon51.517221-132013 Northwestern State (14-seed, R64)
144Air ForceMountain West51.515014-182018 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
145LSUSEC51.515114-192015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
146SamfordSoCon51.513621-112018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
147South FloridaAAC51.415214-182015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
148PepperdineWCC51.32029-222014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
149Fresno StateMountain West51.214811-202018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
150Eastern KentuckyASUN51.116620-132014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
151Northern KentuckyHorizon51.0160.1315622-1210.4%2.4%0.5%0.1%0.0%0.0%2014 Wofford (15-seed, R64)
152ODUSun Belt51.015419-122014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
153GramblingSWAC51.017624-92022 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64)
154South CarolinaSEC50.923311-212022 Wright State (16-seed, R64)
155GeorgiaSEC50.815316-162016 Buffalo (14-seed, R64)
156LipscombASUN50.814920-132017 North Dakota (15-seed, R64)
157California BaptistWAC50.817017-162015 North Dakota State (15-seed, R64)
158DavidsonAtlantic 1050.714516-162018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
159LongwoodBig South50.716720-122018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
160RichmondAtlantic 1050.615715-182013 Montana (13-seed, R64)
161UC DavisBig West50.514618-142018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
162DePaulBig East50.516910-232018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
163Ball StateMAC50.314720-122017 Troy (15-seed, R64)
164A&M-Corpus ChristiSouthland50.3160.1317723-1010.0%2.2%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.0%2017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
165CornellIvy League50.312817-112017 Troy (15-seed, R64)
166Georgia TechACC50.218015-182016 Buffalo (14-seed, R64)
167QuinnipiacMAAC50.216420-122018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
168HarvardIvy League50.116014-142018 Wright State (14-seed, R64)
169Detroit MercyHorizon50.021214-192018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
170UNCWCAA49.914424-102018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
171WyomingMountain West49.91749-222018 Iona (15-seed, R64)
172Norfolk StateMEAC49.919122-112015 Albany (14-seed, R64)
173East CarolinaAAC49.920816-172014 Cal Poly (16-seed, R64)
174Notre DameACC49.918611-212014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64)
175MontanaBig Sky49.816817-142021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16)
176NavyPatriot49.717518-132013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64)
177Texas StateSun Belt49.619216-192018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
178RiderMAAC49.621616-142017 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
179Boston CollegeACC49.517116-172018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
180Utah TechWAC49.515814-192021 Oral Roberts (15-seed, S16)
181ChattanoogaSoCon49.517918-172019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
182PortlandWCC49.416514-192014 Eastern Kentucky (15-seed, R64)
183South Dakota StateSummit League49.415519-132018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
184StetsonASUN49.415917-132018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
185DrexelCAA49.319017-152013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64)
186Wright StateHorizon49.219418-152014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
187TarletonWAC49.216117-162022 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
188NC CentralMEAC49.217818-122013 Albany (15-seed, R64)
189App StateSun Belt49.119616-162014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
190UMassAtlantic 1049.120315-162014 Wofford (15-seed, R64)
191Louisiana TechC-USA49.116215-182021 Appalachian St. ()
192SMUAAC49.020910-222021 Appalachian St. ()
193RadfordBig South49.018519-142016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
194Northwestern StateSouthland48.920522-112015 Texas Southern (15-seed, R64)
195UTEPC-USA48.919314-182021 Appalachian St. ()
196Western KentuckyC-USA48.817317-162018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
197Saint Joseph'sAtlantic 1048.720016-172018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
198St. BonaventureAtlantic 1048.619914-182018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
199BuffaloMAC48.618315-172018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
200Gardner-WebbBig South48.519715-162013 Western Kentucky (16-seed, R64)
201BrownIvy League48.518214-132017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
202FGCUASUN48.518117-152018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
203New Mexico StateWAC48.41889-152019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
204BryantAmerica East48.218417-132018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
205Weber StateBig Sky48.218718-152017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
206Abilene ChristianWAC48.120713-172019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
207SienaMAAC48.020117-152018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
208HowardMEAC47.9160.1121722-128.6%1.7%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%2021 Norfolk State (16-seed, R64)
209QueensASUN47.920418-152016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
210Georgia SouthernSun Belt47.920617-162022 Cal State Fullerton (15-seed, R64)
211PacificWCC47.918915-182019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
212Florida StateACC47.72229-232019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
213MilwaukeeHorizon47.721021-112017 Jacksonville State (15-seed, R64)
214GeorgetownBig East47.62427-252022 Wright State (16-seed, R64)
215MercerSoCon47.622714-192014 Albany (16-seed, R64)
216St. ThomasSummit League47.619519-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
217La SalleAtlantic 1047.322015-192018 Radford (16-seed, R64)
218North Dakota StateSummit League47.321416-172014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
219MinnesotaBig Ten47.32189-222018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
220Oregon StatePac-1247.222311-212021 Appalachian St. ()
221Northern ArizonaBig Sky47.123212-232018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
222UNIMVC47.021514-182018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
223San DiegoWCC46.923111-202017 South Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
224George WashingtonAtlantic 1046.921116-162019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
225Sacramento StateBig Sky46.922414-182016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
226AlcornSWAC46.924518-132016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
227Murray StateMVC46.921317-152019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
228FIUC-USA46.821914-182019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
229WoffordSoCon46.622617-162017 South Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
230Northern ColoradoBig Sky46.623512-202019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
231RiceC-USA46.619818-152019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
232SIUEOVC46.322119-142016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
233JacksonvilleASUN46.323813-162014 Milwaukee (15-seed, R64)
234Robert MorrisHorizon46.224616-172017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
235CampbellBig South46.123416-182019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
236Jacksonville StateASUN46.024113-182018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
237UT ArlingtonWAC46.025111-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
238Purdue Fort WayneHorizon46.023717-152018 Lipscomb (15-seed, R64)
239North FloridaASUN45.923614-172015 Lafayette (16-seed, R64)
240Western CarolinaSoCon45.923018-152016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
241ETSUSoCon45.926612-202018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
242DelawareCAA45.922517-162019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
243Rhode IslandAtlantic 1045.92639-222021 Appalachian St. ()
244Loyola ChicagoAtlantic 1045.626910-212019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
245Northern IllinoisMAC45.524713-192017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
246Morehead StateOVC45.422821-112018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
247Southern IndianaOVC45.425716-162018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
248ArmyPatriot45.424817-162019 FDU (16-seed, R64)
249CanisiusMAAC45.326210-202016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
250Prairie ViewSWAC45.327713-192015 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
251Portland StateBig Sky45.324912-192016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
252UMESMEAC45.222918-132021 Hartford (16-seed, R64)
253UMBCAmerica East45.224018-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
254Saint Peter'sMAAC45.130114-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
255NichollsSouthland45.126416-152021 Appalachian St. ()
256Idaho StateBig Sky45.025211-212016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
257FairfieldMAAC44.926513-182021 Appalachian St. ()
258NiagaraMAAC44.925316-152018 UMBC (16-seed, R32)
259USC UpstateBig South44.925616-152017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
260WinthropBig South44.825415-172019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
261Southeastern LouisianaSouthland44.825518-142016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
262UTRGVWAC44.825915-172016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
263Western IllinoisSummit League44.724416-142016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
264SEMOOVC44.7160.0824319-167.1%1.2%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
265Kansas CitySummit League44.630811-212016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
266Boston UPatriot44.626015-172021 Appalachian St. ()
267North AlabamaASUN44.523918-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
268CaliforniaPac-1244.43133-292016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
269UT MartinOVC44.325019-142018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
270Georgia StateSun Belt44.229210-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
271Bowling GreenMAC44.228311-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
272AmericanPatriot44.126117-152019 FDU (16-seed, R64)
273DartmouthIvy League44.127910-182017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
274Mount St. Mary'sMAAC44.027013-202017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
275WagnerNEC44.031015-132016 Hampton (16-seed, R64)
276North DakotaSummit League44.027413-202016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
277BellarmineASUN44.025815-182019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
278SouthernSWAC44.026715-172017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
279LafayettePatriot44.027111-232017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
280Arkansas StateSun Belt43.928213-202016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
281MaristMAAC43.929113-202017 UC Davis (16-seed, R64)
282Texas SouthernSWAC43.8160.0830914-206.7%1.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
283New HampshireAmerica East43.826815-152016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
284Miami (OH)MAC43.828412-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
285ULMSun Belt43.829411-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
286OaklandHorizon43.827313-192018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
287Coastal CarolinaSun Belt43.829511-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
288UC San DiegoBig West43.727810-202016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
289Tennessee StateOVC43.728118-142019 FDU (16-seed, R64)
290Illinois StateMVC43.628011-212019 North Dakota State (16-seed, R64)
291High PointBig South43.529314-172018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
292Charleston SouthernBig South43.430410-212018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
293Cal PolyBig West43.43078-252016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
294LehighPatriot43.427516-142017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
295CSU BakersfieldBig West43.428911-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
296Chicago StateDI Independent43.429911-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
297ValparaisoMVC43.329011-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
298DenverSummit League43.328615-172018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
299LouisvilleACC43.33164-282016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
300FDUNEC43.2160.0829819-156.5%1.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%2018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
301MaineAmerica East43.127613-172017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
302Jackson StateSWAC43.130514-192016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
303South DakotaSummit League43.129712-192019 Iona (16-seed, R64)
304Tennessee TechOVC43.127216-172018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
305UTSAC-USA43.028810-222016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
306NortheasternCAA42.831210-202016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
307UICMVC42.828512-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
308Alabama A&MSWAC42.732115-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
309BinghamtonAmerica East42.630013-182018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
310Eastern MichiganMAC42.53198-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
311Texas A&M CommerceSouthland42.530313-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
312MerrimackNEC42.530618-162017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
313BucknellPatriot42.529612-202017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
314Western MichiganMAC42.43248-232018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
315ManhattanMAAC42.430212-182016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
316Morgan StateMEAC42.328715-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
317IdahoBig Sky42.231110-222018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
318TulsaAAC42.13225-252016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
319Little RockOVC41.632310-212018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
320North Carolina A&TCAA41.631813-192016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
321OmahaSummit League41.43159-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
322Austin PeayASUN41.43259-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
323William & MaryCAA41.331713-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
324UAPBSWAC41.333210-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
325CSUNBig West41.23337-252016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
326Sacred HeartNEC41.132716-172016 Austin Peay (16-seed, R64)
327The CitadelSoCon41.033110-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
328Loyola MarylandPatriot41.032013-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
329McNeeseSouthland40.933911-232018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
330Stony BrookCAA40.832911-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
331Central MichiganMAC40.732810-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
332New OrleansSouthland40.634012-202018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
333Alabama StateSWAC40.63468-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
334StonehillNEC40.631414-172017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
335NJITAmerica East40.53347-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
336Central ArkansasASUN40.53309-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
337South Carolina StateMEAC40.53475-262016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
338ElonCAA40.03378-242016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
339Central ConnecticutNEC40.034310-222018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
340PresbyterianBig South39.93535-272016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
341UIWSouthland39.934512-192016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
342Coppin StateMEAC39.73269-232017 Mount St. Mary's (16-seed, R64)
343MonmouthCAA39.73517-262016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
344ColumbiaIvy League39.73417-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
345Holy CrossPatriot39.633510-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
346Saint FrancisNEC39.633613-182018 Texas Southern (16-seed, R64)
347Eastern IllinoisOVC39.63449-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
348LindenwoodOVC39.633811-212016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
349Bethune-CookmanSWAC39.534812-202016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
350UAlbanyAmerica East39.43428-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
351HamptonCAA39.23498-242016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
352EvansvilleMVC38.93505-272016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
353LamarSouthland38.53569-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
354VMISoCon38.43557-252016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
355Houston ChristianSouthland38.335710-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
356St. Francis BrooklynNEC38.335214-162016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
357Mississippi Valley StateSWAC38.23585-272016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
358Florida A&MSWAC38.13597-222016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
359Delaware StateMEAC38.03546-242016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
360IUPUIHorizon37.13605-272016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
361Green BayHorizon35.43613-292016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
362HartfordDI Independent34.13635-232016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)
363LIUNEC34.03623-262016 Holy Cross (16-seed, R64)

Tournament Index highlights:

  • Correctly predicted each of the previous three national champions
  • Correctly predicted 14 Final Four teams since 2013
  • “Upset Alert” teams have lost 42 percent of their first-round matchups compared to the national average of 24 percent
  • “Cinderella Watch” teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 or further 28 percent of the time compared to the national average of 7.8 percent
  • “Dark Horse” teams have won 38 percent more NCAA Tournament games than other 5-11 seeds

How it works: Teams are given 0-to-100 power ratings based on key metrics that predict March Madness success, according to our research. These metrics include team efficiencies, Four Factors, NBA talent, tournament experience, preseason rankings and more.

After the bracket release on Selection Sunday, every team has a 0-to-100 “path rating” that determines the difficulty of their tournament path based on likely tournament opponents. For example, a 2-seed in a weaker region may have a more favorable draw than a 1-seed in a stronger region, which is reflected by this rating.

Round-by-round win probabilities are then generated for every team. From there, using ESPN’s Tournament Challenge pick data, we identify which teams provide the best overall value to help win your bracket pool. Value is determined by how many bracket points you would be expected to “gain” over your pool based on correctly selecting a particular team.

Here’s an example: In 2021, 6-seed BYU faced 11-seed UCLA in the first round. Our model gave BYU a 56.8% win probability compared to the 34.2% who selected UCLA to advance while our model gave UCLA a 43.2% win probability compared to the 65.8% who selected BYU to advance. Standard bracket formats typically follow the 10-20-40-80-160-320 round-by-round scoring format. The calculation for first-round pick value looks like the following:

  • BYU: 0.568 win probability * 0.342 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 1.9 pick value
  • UCLA: 0.423 win probability * 0.658 opponent pick rate * 10 possible points = 2.8 pick value

These calculations continue through the remaining five rounds and are summed for the team’s final overall pick value. The pick value indicates which teams you should select in each round of your bracket to earn the most expected points possible over your bracket pool.

Our model outsmarts the competition.

First and foremost, tournament seeds can deceive. Though the 2014 Kentucky team underwhelmed during the regular season, John Calipari’s Wildcats still had one of the tournament’s most talented rosters that year. Remember, the Cats were the No. 1 team in the preseason AP poll going into the 2013-14 campaign.

As an 8-seed, Kentucky’s Power Rating of 79.6 would have even been considered above-average for a 3-seed, let alone an 8. It should come as somewhat less of a surprise, then, that the woefully under-seeded Wildcats advanced all the way to the national title game that year.

Meanwhile, a team like 2017 Minnesota — with a Power Rating of just 66.6 — entered the Big Dance as a 5-seed, but had a relative strength more resembling a 9-seed. Tournament Index would have said to avoid this 5-seed like the plague. As it happened, the Gophers trailed 12-seed Middle Tennessee by as many as 17 points in an eventual 81-72 first-round loss.

The selection committee has an impossible job to “correctly” select and seed all 68 teams, which means there is always hidden value to be found. To that end, Tournament Index shines a light into all the nooks and crannies of the bracket.

Below are tables showing how to interpret the Tournament Index ratings and identify potential advantages in your bracket pool.

NCAA Tournament wins based on Tournament Index Power Rating

Power RatingAverage NCAA Tournament Wins
88 or higher3.84
80 to 87.92.21
70 to 79.91.15
60 to 69.90.61
59.9 or lower0.13

Tournament Index Power Ratings By Seed