Tournament Index: March Madness 2023 predictions, Cinderella projections

Upset Alerts

Current Ratings	Historical Team Ratings
Upset Alerts	Cinderella Watch
Dark Horses	Draw Difficulty

Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.

An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.

Seed Matchup	Average Win Probability	“Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold
16 vs. 1	5.4%	7.1%
15 vs. 2	9.1%	12.6%
14 vs. 3	15.9%	21.2%
13 vs. 4	18.1%	24.8%
12 vs. 5	29.7%	39.2%
11 vs. 6	38.7%	51.4%

Since 2013, a total of 34 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.

Seeds 1-3

Stat	On “Upset Alert”	Not on “Upset Alert”
Avg. Tournament Wins	1.80	2.53
Reached Second Round	80.0%	91.4%
Reached Sweet 16	53.3%	66.7%

Seeds 4-6

Stat	On “Upset Alert”	Not on “Upset Alert”
Avg. Tournament Wins	0.47	1.25
Reached Second Round	36.8%	68.8%
Reached Sweet 16	10.5%	40.2%