Upset Alerts

Heat Check CBB defines a “first-round upset” as a win by any team seeded 6th or better falling in the tournament’s first round. Thus, wins by 10-seeds and 9-seeds are not considered upsets for our purposes.
An “Upset Alert” occurs when a team’s first-round win probability is at least one standard deviation below the seed matchup average.
Seed Matchup | Average Win Probability | “Upset Alert” Win Probability Threshold |
16 vs. 1 | 5.4% | 7.1% |
15 vs. 2 | 9.1% | 12.6% |
14 vs. 3 | 15.9% | 21.2% |
13 vs. 4 | 18.1% | 24.8% |
12 vs. 5 | 29.7% | 39.2% |
11 vs. 6 | 38.7% | 51.4% |
Since 2013, a total of 34 teams have been put on “Upset Alert” by the Tournament Index. Let’s see how teams with the “Upset Alert” label have performed compared to those that didn’t.
Seeds 1-3
Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
Avg. Tournament Wins | 1.80 | 2.53 |
Reached Second Round | 80.0% | 91.4% |
Reached Sweet 16 | 53.3% | 66.7% |
Seeds 4-6
Stat | On “Upset Alert” | Not on “Upset Alert” |
Avg. Tournament Wins | 0.47 | 1.25 |
Reached Second Round | 36.8% | 68.8% |
Reached Sweet 16 | 10.5% | 40.2% |
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