While Memphis is poised to win its first AAC title, UAB and Wichita State look to crash the party.
With the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC adding members over the past few seasons, and the new Pac-12 coming together in the future, it is easy to overlook the changes in the American Athletic Conference. Cincinnati, Central Florida, Houston, and SMU all left last year, and they were replaced by six former Conference USA programs.
Despite these changes, the AAC’s standing in the college basketball landscape has not dramatically changed — the conference ranked between seventh and ninth in all but one season, per KenPom. This year shouldn’t be much different, with multiple potential NCAA Tournament at-large teams, and 10 of 13 programs ranked in KenPom’s top 150.
When it comes to the conference race, Memphis and UAB are expected to compete head-to-head for the spot atop the league standings. Teams like Wichita State, Florida Atlantic and South Florida could crash the party, though. Regardless of who wins the regular season, the AAC is talented enough that any of its Big Dance participants will be dangerous once the tournament starts.
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Projected Order of Finish
1. Memphis Tigers
For as talented as Memphis has been under Penny Hardaway, and for as strong as they have finished conference play, the program has yet to win an AAC title. The Tigers have finished second just once in 11 seasons while the Tigers have finished fifth or worse in seven.
This year, Hardaway’s squad is once again the league’s most talented. Memphis lost nearly its entire roster, only returning starting 4-man Nick Jourdain (6.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg), and Hardaway was forced to turn to the transfer portal — where he put together a team of mercenaries who could turn the conference on its head.
The highlights of the haul are PJ Haggerty (21.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.8 apg, 1.9 spg at Tulsa) and Colby Rogers (16.4 ppg 40.9 3P%, 99 3PM at Wichita State), two intraconference transfers that led their respective teams in scoring. Joining them in the backcourt are Tyrese Hunter (11.1 ppg, 4.1 apg at Texas), who should man the point, Baraka Okojie (8.1 ppg at George Mason), and another AAC transfer in PJ Carter (9.5 ppg, 40.3 3P%, 52 3PM at UTSA).
In the frontcourt, former five-star center Moussa Cisse makes his return to Memphis, where he played as a freshman in 2020-21 before stops at Oklahoma State and Ole Miss. Between Cisse (4.5 ppg, 1.4 bpg), Jourdain and Dain Dainja (6.1 ppg at Illinois), Memphis has perhaps the highest-ceiling frontcourt in the American. Tyreek Smith (8.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg at SMU) is another scoring option in the paint and helps solidify Memphis’ depth.
On paper, Memphis undoubtedly looks like the best team in the AAC. But basketball isn’t played on paper, and the Tigers will need to prove it on the floor if Penny Hardaway wants to avoid any questions about his job security.
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