Even after losing its National Player of the Year, expect Purdue back atop the Big Ten leaderboard.
A lot can be said about the elite teams at the top of other conferences, but when it comes to the sheer number of NCAA Tournament-caliber teams, it is difficult to find a conference with more than the Big Ten. Last year was the first season since 2018 in which the Big Ten did not have the most bids. With Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington entering the fold, it wouldn’t be out of the question for the league to earn double-digit bids, something that has only happened once — when the Big East earned 11 bids in 2011.
The run to March starts with Purdue, which has won the past two regular-season championships. But without their star big man in Zach Edey, the gap between them and the rest of the look appears incredibly tight.
Illinois lost its best players, but the Illini may still have the most talented roster they have had in years. Indiana has a lot of talent for Mike Woodson to deploy, and UCLA is the feisty newcomer who has a legitimate shot to win the title in their first season as a league member. The rest of the league can’t be counted out either, because the difference between fifth and 15th might be a matter of a few games.
As long as the conference performs to its potential in the nonconference slate, which was an issue last season, it should be talked about as one of the three best leagues in basketball.
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Projected Order of Finish
1. Purdue Boilermakers
No Edey? No problem.
At least that is what the Big Ten media, analytics sites like KenPom, Torvik and EvanMiya would have you believe. While the pain of losing both Edey and Lance Jones can’t be understated, the Boilermakers will still likely have a top-five backcourt and one of the best coaches in the country.
Braden Smith’s reputation as a top point guard has been a contentious one, with some believing his success was a byproduct of Edey’s dominance. This year, however, Smith still has plenty of talent around him to continue as one of the nation’s best playmakers. He shot 43.1 percent from deep and finished second in the country with 7.5 assists per game.
Part of the confidence in Smith comes from the return of Fletcher Loyer, one of the best shooters in the country (44.4 3P%), and Trey Kaufman-Renn, who was a good foil to Edey as a face-up big. Cam Heide could also have a significant impact, after seeing his role expand throughout his freshman season. The final two returning players, Myles Colvin and Caleb Furst, should also be in line for bigger roles, but their minutes are not safe after inconsistent play down the stretch.
If Colvin and Furst can’t improve over last year, Daniel Jacobsen or Gicarri Harris could earn starter’s minutes as freshmen. Harris is the program’s fourth-highest-ranked recruit since 2000, per 247Sports, while Burgess and the 7-3 Jacobsen are expected to compete for minutes at the 5-spot. Sophomore center Will Berg started Purdue’s scrimmage, but his play likely has him on the outside looking in.
If this group clicks, Purdue could be a top-10 team again. Even if they play toward their floor, Smith and Painter are good enough to lead this team to a top-five Big Ten finish.
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