This Saturday features 144 college basketball games, many of which have significant bracketology implications. Let’s dive into the most important bracket games on a major day of college hoops.
The final month of the college basketball regular season is here, making this crunch time for teams trying to make the bracket. While many programs have already asserted their NCAA Tournament cases, several still have work left to do. The NCAA Tournament selection committee treats every game from November through March generally the same, but there is no denying it: During this portion of the season, every game feels like it matters more.
Time is running out, and the margins are thin.
With that in mind, this Saturday’s slate of 144 games could have huge implications. Let’s dive in.
Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: Latest 2024 NCAA Tournament projections
Top games to watch
Marquette at UConn
A battle between teams at the top of the S-curve won’t have a dramatic impact on the bracketology picture. Both are locks to make the NCAA Tournament field and perhaps already locks for protected seeds. However, Marquette is not out of the equation for a No. 1 seed. The Golden Eagles have won eight consecutive games and are now 10-5 against the upper two quadrants with no bad losses. If the Golden Eagles pull off this difficult road upset, they would have five Quad 1A wins, second only to Purdue. UConn will stay on the No. 1 line regardless, but a win would mean Marquette can no longer control its destiny to usurp the top spot in the Big East.
Creighton at Butler
There might not be a bigger swing game for a team currently projected in the field than when Butler hosts Creighton this weekend. The Bulldogs are a projected No. 10 seed, with a touch of separation from the cutline. If they can complete a season sweep of the Bluejays, that buffer zone will grow significantly. It would be hard to keep Butler out of the field if they can add a fifth Quadrant 1 victory (combined with no bad losses). Conversely, a loss would put Butler below .500 against the upper three quadrants, and with back-to-back road games coming next. The Bulldogs would likely still be on the right side of the cutline with a loss, but their margin for error would be gone. As for Creighton, this is merely a seeding game; the Bluejays are a No. 4-6 seed.
Wake Forest at Virginia
Virginia played its way into single-digit seed territory with a recent eight-game win streak. The Cavaliers did drop their most recent game at Pittsburgh, though. Defending home court against Wake Forest would be a big bounce-back to remain with a solid bit of separation from the cutline. A loss, especially at home, would have Virginia doubling the deodorant again. Wake Forest, on the other hand, is still seeking its first Quadrant 1 win of the year. The Deacs’ quality metrics are superb, both ranking in the top 30, but the team likely won’t dance without some strong wins. This game is a huge opportunity for Wake, and it would be hard to keep them out of the projected field with a win. A loss would keep the team winless in Q1 with just a 2-7 road record.
Utah State at Colorado State
Utah State and Colorado State are both solidly projected as single-digit seeds. Given Utah State plays this game on the road, a win could boost its odds of a top-five seed, whereas a loss would not hinder much in terms of seeding. Colorado State, on the other hand, has more to lose. The Rams are coming off a road loss to San Diego State, and they follow this game with road matchups at New Mexico and UNLV. It is a brutal stretch that could cause a drop in seeding if CSU isn’t careful. The BPI hates Colorado State (No. 72 in BPI, top 40 in all other metrics), which could be a hindrance if the committee chooses to make it one. Best for the Rams to avoid all doubt and continue on their single-digit seed trajectory.
Virginia Tech at North Carolina
North Carolina is locked into an excellent seed at the NCAA Tournament but still has a shot at a No. 1 seed. Defending home court against bubble teams like Virginia Tech is essential to keeping those hopes alive. As for Virginia Tech, this is a massive road opportunity. The Hokies are on the outside looking in at the Big Dance picture, but a road win over the Tar Heels would do wonders for their resume. Per Bart Torvik, Virginia Tech would have a 19 percent chance of reaching the tournament with a win — and just two percent with a loss. It will be difficult, but UNC hasn’t been at its best lately. Considering Virginia Tech’s resume as it stands, this might be a must-win to even stay in the picture.
Texas A&M at Alabama
Texas A&M looked to be in a decent spot following a three-game win streak that included home wins over Florida and Tennessee. But then the Aggies followed that up by losing at Vanderbilt to mark their third Quadrant 3 loss. They have a lot going for them on their resume, including a top NCSOS and five Quadrant 1 wins, but those bad losses leave the door open for a slide. Playing at Alabama gives Texas A&M a chance to bounce back and perhaps lock in their tournament bid for good. With a win, TAMU’s tournament odds would climb to 93 percent, per Torvik; they would sit at just 77 percent with a loss. Alabama, meanwhile, is firmly in competition for a top-three seed.
TCU at Kansas State
TCU sits on a projected single-digit seed line, though somewhat precariously. The Horned Frogs boast solid metrics and some excellent victories but are only 4-7 in Quadrants 1 and 2. At a certain point, it might become essential to look at TCU’s win percentage against quality teams rather than just the quantity of victories — especially given its incredibly weak nonconference schedule. A loss to Kansas State, even on the road, might have TCU sweating. On the other side of the floor, K-State returned to the bubble picture recently with a home win over Kansas. To stay in the mix, the Wildcats must win home games like this one. Including this game, three of Kansas State’s next four games are in Manhattan.
Kansas at Oklahoma
Barring a collapse from the latter, Kansas and Oklahoma essentially play for seeding. However, the Jayhawks might have more to prove in this game, considering their woes away from home. Don’t get me wrong: Kansas is a deadbolt lock for the NCAA Tournament as a likely No. 2 or 3 seed. But it is just 2-5 in true road games, with those wins coming over non-tournament teams in LSU and West Virginia. The NCAA Tournament isn’t played in the Phog, so figuring out how to win away from home will be essential for Kansas. For Oklahoma, this marks a key home opportunity to assert its status as a single-digit seed.
Kentucky at Auburn
Having now added a pair of Quadrant 1 victories to elite metrics, Auburn is seemingly locked into a protected seed. Kentucky, on the other hand, has quickly fallen to hovering around the No. 7-9 seed lines. The Wildcats are still solidly in the field, but their position could become more precarious in the final month. Kentucky’s resume metrics average 36.5, only slightly above bubble territory, and the Wildcats are 2-5 in Quadrant 1 games. A win at Auburn would quell the creeping doubts about Kentucky, which has lost five of its past six games against KenPom top-50 opponents. Including this game, UK plays three of its next four away from Lexington; the lone home game is hosting Alabama.
Texas at Houston
Houston is in great shape for a No. 1 seed. Not much else to add there. However, Texas is a very interesting case. The Longhorns boast an outstanding four Quadrant 1A wins but are just 8-8 overall against the upper three quadrants. While they deserve to be positioned solidly in the field at the moment, the closing stretch is an absolute gauntlet. The Longhorns host Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, and they might need to win all of those considering they still play on the road at Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech and Baylor. Texas is a team to monitor for a potential slide toward the bubble — or a big jump up the seed lines. After all, the Longhorns have already proven they can beat some of the best of the best on the road.
Mid-Major Special: Yale at Princeton
Even with Princeton ranking 36th in strength of record, odds are highly likely that the Ivy League will be a one-bid conference again this season. There may be an argument for Princeton to be an at-large team, though the Tigers will enter Selection Sunday without having played a Quadrant 1 game. They are also just 2-3 in Quadrant 2 games to this point.
That said, if either of these teams comes out of the Ivy League, they will be a popular upset pick in March. Princeton already put forth a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16 last year and, despite losing several key pieces from that team, has performed admirably in the sequel. Sophomores Xaivian Lee and Caden Pierce have taken star turns this season, while Matt Allocco has raised his scoring volume.
Yale entered this season with high expectations after bringing back four starters from a team that tied Princeton for the regular-season Ivy League title. The Bulldogs started this season relatively slowly but have turned on the jets lately. They are riding a nine-game win streak, the fifth-longest in the country, and beat this Princeton team at home a couple of weeks ago. All five Yale starters average over 9.0 points per game, led by breakout sophomore Danny Wolf and sharpshooter John Poulakidas.
If you want a peek at a couple of potential Cinderellas, check this one out.
Several bubble teams take tough road tests
Winning on the road is hard in college basketball; that’s why bracketologists seemingly never shut up about the importance of adding quality road wins. In addition to the games noted above, several other bubble teams enter a college basketball “no man’s land” of potential potholes on the road:
- Oregon at Oregon State
- Florida at Georgia
- Indiana State at Southern Illinois
- Nevada at UNLV
- Colorado at USC
- Cincinnati at UCF
Of the teams listed above, Indiana State, Nevada, and Cincinnati are in the most danger. Indiana State is coming off a rough loss to Illinois State that pushed them to the projected cutline, and now the Sycamores face their toughest remaining opponent. Nevada has climbed into the projected field recently, but UNLV has been a giant killer in MWC play with a road win over Boise State and a season sweep of New Mexico. Cincinnati is clinging to the cutline heading into a stretch in which three of its next four come on the road. This one is the most winnable of them all, but UCF is dangerous.
“Don’t lose at home as heavy favorites” games
As important as it is to add key road wins, defending home court is also essential for bubble teams, especially when they are heavy favorites. Butler is the lone bubble team looking to pick up a major win at home to bolster its status. The other 10 bubble teams playing home games are all projected as heavy favorites without much to gain from winning — but each has a lot to lose.
- DePaul at Providence
- Georgia Southern at James Madison
- Louisville at Pittsburgh
- Arkansas at Mississippi State
- California Baptist at Grand Canyon
- Fresno State at Boise State
- Missouri at Ole Miss
- Pacific at Gonzaga
- Stanford at Washington State
- Penn State at Nebraska
Six teams — Providence, James Madison, Pittsburgh, Grand Canyon, Boise State and Gonzaga — are in particular danger as their matchups are in Quadrant 4. A loss for any of those teams would be disastrous. These games should all be wins, but they won’t add much to the teamsheet. The main objective here is simply to avoid stepping on a landmine late in the season.