March is here, and that means it is crunch time for bracketology. Here are the biggest games to watch across Saturday’s loaded schedule, with a look at why each one matters.
March. Is. Here.
It is finally time. After four months of hard-fought college basketball action, the end of the regular season is nearly here. Teams everywhere are frantically looking for last-minute victories to improve their NCAA Tournament resumes. As has been the case throughout the season, yet another Saturday slate is loaded with top-tier games and those with major bubble implications.
In total, there will be 136 games played on March 2. Let’s discuss the biggest of the day and why they carry so much weight.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
Highly-rated teams playing for seeding
Tennessee at Alabama: This is a top-tier SEC battle between two teams trending towards protected seeds. Alabama hasn’t lost at home since Nov. 28 (vs. Clemson) and has risen to a projected No. 3 seed. Tennessee enters on a five-game win streak and is still questing to steal a No. 1 seed. If the Volunteers close well — they still play South Carolina and Kentucky after this — they could usurp Arizona’s spot.
Marquette at Creighton: This Big East matchup is just as big as the SEC tilt above. Creighton could assert itself as a protected seed with a home victory, while Marquette remains on the outskirts of the No. 1 seed conversation. Creighton has won five of its last six, highlighted by knocking off UConn in Omaha. Meanwhile, Marquette’s only loss since Jan. 10 was at UConn. The Golden Eagles are playing as well as anyone in the country.
Kansas at Baylor: Kansas’ Kevin McCullar has missed four of the last five games. The Jayhawks are a much different team without him, which the committee could consider on Selection Sunday. Either way, Kansas is in line for an excellent seed, but its chances at a No. 1 have slipped away lately. As for Baylor, the Bears look to avenge a prior loss to Kansas. They will also hope to regain some momentum after recently losing to Houston at home. The McCullar factor is worth monitoring here.
Florida at South Carolina: Few teams are hitting their stride at a better time than Florida. The Gators are 5-1 over their last six games (and 9-2 over their last 11) with wins over Kentucky and Auburn. South Carolina has been a bit more vulnerable lately, but the Gamecocks are coming off back-to-back road wins over Ole Miss and Texas A&M. In doing so, they asserted themselves as an NCAA Tournament team and sent those teams into the depths of the bubble. As a result, this SEC matchup is a case of single-digit seeds jockeying for position.
Illinois at Wisconsin: Wisconsin’s tremendous overall collection of wins — 12 Quadrant 1 victories — has the team safely in the NCAA Tournament. However, the Badgers have been nothing short of poor the past few weeks. Wisconsin has lost six of their last eight games, including five straight on the road. The NCAA Tournament isn’t played in Madison, but this game will be. Wisconsin could use a strong performance against a high-quality team to get back on track. Wisconsin has fallen out of protected seed talks. Meanwhile, Illinois is trending as a No. 4 seed and looks to hold firm in that spot.
Mississippi State at Auburn: Auburn’s resume is among the most interesting in the country. The Tigers boast off-the-charts metrics (top 16 across the board) but own just one Quadrant 1 victory; no other team in the NET top 26 has so few. What will the committee do with that information? The metrics indicate a likely No. 2 or 3 seed, but the lack of high-quality wins could weigh them down. This is a Q2 game, but it would be another win over the field for Auburn. As for Mississippi State, a top-10 NET road win would go a long way in helping the Bulldogs avoid the dreaded 8/9 game in the first round.
Three chances to move into “lock” territory
Oklahoma (vs. Houston): Oklahoma is in the middle of a Big 12 jumble on the projected No. 7-9 seed lines. The Sooners are unlikely to fall out of the field, but they are not yet a 100 percent lock. They can get there if they defend home court against projected No. 1 seed Houston.
TCU (at BYU): TCU is in a similar thicket and has a similar opportunity on the horizon. As the Horned Frogs travel to face BYU, they are solidly in the field and would remain so even with a loss. However, a win in Provo would erase all worry of TCU landing on the bubble, where its poor NCSOS could be an issue.
Michigan State (at Purdue): Michigan State is squarely on the bubble after dropping back-to-back home games to Iowa and Ohio State. The Spartans probably need at least one win over their final three games (at Purdue, vs. Northwestern, at Indiana) to remain safe. Winning in Mackey is unlikely, but it would move MSU off the bubble. A loss would not hurt much, but it would further shrink the margin for error.
Top games with bubble implications
Villanova at Providence: It does not get much more bubbly than this game. Both teams enter the weekend in the “Last Four In” category in our Heat Check CBB bracketology. Villanova has superb wins, but its total losses — including three in Quadrant 3 — hold them back. The Wildcats have some of the worst resume metrics in at-large consideration, but KenPom and BPI rate them well. It could be hard to leave Villanova out if it adds a tenth Q1/Q2 win by beating Providence on the road. Providence’s resume screams bubble across the board. The Friars probably need to win at least two of its last three, and beating Villanova would be a great way to start.
Just take a peek at these numbers, per Torvik:
- Villanova: 92.3% of bid with a win, 41.7% with a loss
- Providence: 61.3% of bid with a win, 29.7% with a loss
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech: Virginia Tech is a long shot to make the NCAA Tournament field, but the dream is not quite dead. A home win here would bring the Hokies a bit closer while also greatly hindering Wake Forest’s chances. As for the Demon Deacons, their resume features only one Quadrant 1 win, plus a poor NCSOS and a 2-8 road record. Winning in Blacksburg would give the Deacs a crucial Q1 road win. Fans of every bubble team not named Wake Forest should be rooting for Virginia Tech this weekend.
New Mexico at Boise State: New Mexico has alternated results for eight straight games, most recently suffering a Quadrant 4 home loss to Air Force. That defeat sent the Lobos tumbling toward the bubble. If the pattern persists, UNM would be in for a road win over Boise State that could put them back into relative safety. A loss will keep the team right in the thick of the bubble. Meanwhile, Boise State hopes to keep rolling. The Broncos’ ongoing four-game win streak has them fighting to avoid the 8/9 game.
Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s: Gonzaga added its second Quadrant 1 win of the year when it won at San Francisco on Thursday. Was that enough to make the field, even if it drops another game (or two) to Saint Mary’s? Perhaps, but it would be better not to find out. If the Bulldogs can pull off this upset, their streak of NCAA Tournament appearances should stay intact. SMC is a projected No. 6 or 7 seed fighting to stay in that favorable position, and a win would make the Gaels an impressive 8-4 in Q1/Q2 games.
Virginia at Duke: A true road win over Duke would be a godsend for Virginia, which has slipped relatively close to the cutline. That is easier said than done, but it would go a very long way. If the Cavaliers fall short, they will be right in the “Last Four In” conversation heading into the homestretch.
Mid-majors bubbling below the surface
With bubble teams dropping like flies, the committee may focus on a pair of mid-majors with outstanding overall records.
One of those teams, Princeton, looks to defend home court this weekend against Columbia and Cornell. If the 19-3 Tigers win both, the committee will have to consider whether Princeton’s positives (overall record, 10 road wins, 33rd in SOR) outweigh its negatives (zero Q1 games). There’s also McNeese State, which does not have the same great resume metrics as Princeton (95th in KPI, 47th in SOR). Still, the Cowboys have a Quadrant 1 win at VCU and are 21-3 in Division I games.
Neither team can control anything other than winning the games on their schedule. If the committee does choose to prioritize win percentage, both teams will be in the at-large mix.
Don’t let a good season slip away
Colorado State (vs. Wyoming), Texas (vs. Oklahoma State), Texas Tech (at West Virginia), and Florida Atlantic (vs Tulane) are all projected NCAA Tournament teams set to face sub-100 KenPom opponents. As it stands, Florida Atlantic should be the only team with anything to worry about. CSU, Texas and Texas Tech would survive a loss this weekend. They essentially just need one more win to become “locks.”
However, FAU is in danger of letting a high-quality season go to waste if it doesn’t handle business down the stretch. The Owls have dropped three of their last six to fall toward a double-digit seed line. Beating Tulane isn’t a must, but the Owls finish with games against North Texas and Memphis. A win here would ease a lot of worries.
Huge opportunities to regain bubble traction
Three teams on the outskirts of the bubble have huge road opportunities this weekend: Oregon (at Arizona), Iowa (at Northwestern) and NC State (at North Carolina). All three teams have a lot of work to do to creep into the projected field, especially NC State.
High-quality road wins over sure-fire NCAA Tournament teams would be huge at this stage. On the other hand, losses would effectively end at-large hopes for all three. The leverage odds on Bart Torvik show just how much sway these particular games have:
- Oregon: 57.3% chance of bid with a win, 2.6% with a loss
- Iowa: 48.4% chance of a bid with a win, 7.0% with a loss
- NC State: 4.6% chance at a bid with a win, 0.3% with a loss
Perhaps just one last gasp at at-large hopes…
As is the case each season, the bubble has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks. Some teams have sewn up NCAA Tournament resumes, but many have fallen victim to losing streaks or landmines. The seven teams below have fallen to the category of at-large “longshots” for the final stretch.
Kansas State and Cincinnati are two such longshots, and they play each other this weekend. The winner will remain on the fringe of consideration and can build their case in the Big 12 Tournament. The loser will be eliminated for good, barring an auto-bid run.
Ole Miss may have the most to gain out of this group. The Rebels are just 5-9 against the upper two quadrants with sub-80 quality metrics. Still, they rank 38th in KPI and 37th in SOR. If they can dominate Missouri enough to raise their KenPom and BPI, there may yet be life in Oxford. Pittsburgh (at BC) and Utah (at Cal) also put their slim hopes on the line in road games against sub-100 KenPom opponents.
Butler has dropped five consecutive games, and six of its last seven, to fall well out of the field. Several wins over projected tournament teams, including at Creighton and Marquette, are excellent — but they aren’t enough to mask a 15-13 record. To maintain any shot at an at-large, the Bulldogs must win at DePaul this weekend (and beat Xavier at home, and make a deep run in the Big East Tournament).
Finally, Texas A&M has had its own slide. The Aggies need to win out in the regular season, starting with Georgia this weekend, and then get some help in the SEC Tournament.