After yet another WAC Tournament title run, Grand Canyon is back in the Big Dance for the fourth time in five seasons. Can the Lopes pull off another March stunner?
Grand Canyon is headed to the NCAA Tournament once again, cementing its place as the WAC’s top dog. While the Lopes have just one outright regular-season title since joining the league, their Gonzaga-like domination has persisted in WAC Vegas. Bryce Drew’s program is now an astounding 12-1 in the conference tournament over the past five years.
Before winning the automatic bid, GCU’s regular season had more bumps in the road than anyone had anticipated back in the fall. The Lopes earned a handful of preseason Top 25 votes, becoming one of the nation’s most anticipated mid-majors. Their 10-4 nonconference featured defeats to three non-NCAA Tournament teams, including UC Davis at home and Arizona State and Louisiana Tech on the road. But since the start of league play, Drew’s squad has looked its usual self and posted a 16-3 record over its final 19 games.
While the March Madness outlook isn’t nearly as optimistic as it was a year ago, when GCU won its first tournament game, the Lopes still pose another threat to pull off an upset.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
GCU’s charitable offensive approach
Grand Canyon’s offense is highly predicated on attacking the cup and putting pressure on opposing frontcourts. The Lopes rank seventh nationally in free-throw attempt rate, and 24 percent of the team’s total scoring comes via the charity stripe. Tyon Grant-Foster‘s relentless offensive approach is the calling card, where the 6-7 swingman ranks sixth in D-I for free-throw attempts (282) while drawing over seven fouls per game.
In total, five different Lopes have over 100 free-throw attempts on the year. Ray Harrison (101-of-115) is the guy you don’t want to foul given his lifetime 81.8 percent mark at the line. JaKobe Coles (94-of-122) and Makaih Williams (93-of-120) are no slouches, either, with a combined 77.3 percent success rate.
GCU is far less effective offensively when its opponents keep the fouls to a minimum. Against teams that rank in the top 200 in free-throw rate prevention, the Lopes are 8-5. When facing more foul-prone opponents, the Lopes are 18-2. Those shots proved important in Saturday’s WAC Tournament final, as Grand Canyon attempted a whopping 33 free throws in its victory over Utah Valley.
Defense remains the calling card for an upset
If GCU pulls off another March stunner, its rugged defense will likely be the deciding factor. Drew’s squad ranks top 35 nationally in both effective field goal defense and opponent turnover rate — a combination achieved by just five other teams (Houston, St. John’s, VCU, Little Rock, Merrimack).
The Lopes have quickness and length on the perimeter, which contributes to steals and deflections, while their interior has the athleticism to block and alter shot attempts. Even when opponents hoist it up, they usually don’t fare very well. Since Jan. 1, GCU’s 2-point defense ranks fifth in all of college basketball, with opponents converting just 43.6 percent of their attempts. Expect a heavy dose of low-quality jump shots against this Lopes defense.
To make matters even more difficult, GCU operates at one of the fastest paces in the sport. The Lopes average 71.5 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 14th in the country. If Grand Canyon faces off against a slower-paced team that is particularly reliant on a methodical offensive approach, it could lend its way to a potential upset. Bear in mind that Saint Mary’s ranked 357th in tempo last year when GCU beat them in the first round. The same problem could bite slower high-seeds such as Clemson (327th), UCLA (301st), Purdue (297th) and Texas Tech (281st) should any wind up facing the Lopes this year.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Grand Canyon is a projected No. 13 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. With a power rating of 57.3, the Lopes would rate as a below-average No. 13 seed (historically, 58.1 is an “average” No. 13 seed power rating).
The TI projects an average of 0.25 wins for Grand Canyon given its projected seed and strength.
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