March Madness 2025: Five most likely first-round upsets

Let’s check out the five double-digit seeds most likely to beat higher seeds in the first round of March Madness.

The NCAA Tournament earned its March Madness nickname because of the upsets that always occur. We don’t know which games will turn brackets upside down or create folk heroes from previously unknown college students, but we know it’s going to happen without a shadow of a doubt.

Everyone remembers NC State’s magical run to the Final Four last season. It started, of course, with a first-round upset over Texas Tech. Oakland’s shocking victory over Kentucky was another lasting moment from that tournament even though it fell to the Wolfpack in the next game. 

Those first-round upsets contribute to the spectacle that is March Madness. So where could the next Cinderella come from? Below are five games I’m monitoring with legitimate upset potential.

More Heat Check CBB:

• Region previews: South | East | Midwest | West
• The only six national title contenders
• Why the First Four could be a tournament launchpad

No. 13 High Point over No. 4 Purdue

Purdue has been reeling of late, having lost six of its last nine games. That’s in large part because of its defense that ranks 362nd (out of 364 teams) in 2-point percentage allowed since the calendar flipped to 2025. The Boilermakers’ lack of interior size has translated into inferior rim protection, and average athleticism on the perimeter coincides with an inability to keep opponents out of the paint.

Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn have been one of the best offensive duos in the entire country, yet Purdue hasn’t received consistent production from the others around them in about a month or so.

That is not a problem for High Point, which also has a top-25 offense in the country, per KenPom. Three different players average over 13 points per game and virtually everyone is a threat to fill it up from 3-point range (12th in eFG%). The Panthers also have a litany of players who excel at finishing around the rim, headlined by first-team All-Big South performers Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton. 

7-foot center Juslin Bodo Bodo has also won the Big South Defensive Player of the Year each of the last two seasons, creating an intriguing matchup between himself and Kaufman-Renn.