Some say that the First Four games don’t matter. Don’t listen to them. The mid-week matchups in Dayton are often the precursor to some of March’s maddest moments.
The early weeks of March are always an incredible time. The wall-to-wall excitement of the conference tournaments, the urgent anticipation in those nervous final hours of Selection Sunday, the sound of crumpled-up brackets missing wastebaskets across America in the days following the reveal of the 68-team NCAA Tournament field.
However, for all the passion shown throughout the past two weeks, an oddly apathetic — yet entirely expected — refrain is also being sung throughout the country. You may have heard it already.
The First Four games don’t matter.
Now, there may be a few reasons for the sentiment. Often, and most innocuously, folks just want a few more hours to fill out their brackets before their pool of choice closes. Fair enough. Others might claim that the extra games are simply a money grab by greedy television executives and various interested parties at the college level. Maybe so.
Of course, some will say that the at-large teams in the First Four didn’t do enough to deserve a trip to the NCAA Tournament. (Many of them will extol the virtues of their favorite aggrieved mid-major in the very next breath, but I digress.) Others still will lament that the 16-seeds are being cheated out of the true March Madness experience by ensuring that two of them won’t make it out of Dayton. Hard to argue.
Maybe all of them are right. But being right won’t stop the First Four from playing on, at least not until the next round of tournament expansion takes place. And being right doesn’t change the fact that the First Four actually has mattered quite a bit.
—March Madness: The only six teams that can win the championship
First Four games often lead to more March memories
In the 13 tournaments that have featured a First Four, 13 opening-round participants have advanced past Dayton only to win at least one more NCAA Tournament game. That’s an average of one team per season moving on and pulling off the (so-called) first-round upset. Further, the 2019 tournament is the only one since 2011 that has not had a First Four participant advance to the Round of 32.
For games that don’t matter, the First Four contests have served as the launchpad for many a memorable March moment.
The inaugural First Four produced the 2011 VCU team that subsequently knocked off Georgetown, Purdue, Florida State and Kansas to reach the Final Four. That run put now-Marquette head coach Shaka Smart on the map and forever helped build the image of mid-majors everywhere. A decade later, the 2021 UCLA Bruins made the same journey from Dayton to the Final Four, before eventually falling to Gonzaga and Jalen Suggs’ historic half-court heave.
That’s not all. Three more teams — 2013 La Salle, 2014 Tennessee and 2018 Syracuse — made a Sweet 16 run after playing in the First Four. Eight more managed to get a win in the Round of 64 before bowing out, including the 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson team that became just the second 16-seed to topple a No. 1. The Knights are still the only team to have done it after playing in Dayton.
Again, that’s a lot of March memories that might never get made if not for the momentum built on Tuesday and Wednesday night.
Looking ahead to the 2025 NCAA Tournament, all four of the at-large teams have a case for why they could be the ones to make a deep run. For starters, all four — yes, even North Carolina — have shown an ability to hang with better competition.
North Carolina, San Diego State do battle on Tuesday
The Tar Heels famously have just one Quad 1 win to their name, but a win over 7-seed UCLA and a three-point loss to 7-seed Kansas bode well for their chances in the Round of 64 should they make it. As for the deeper rounds, UNC just had a 1-seed Duke team on the ropes in the ACC Tournament semifinals (albeit without Cooper Flagg on the floor). The Heels also lost by just six to 1-seed Florida, and they took 2-seed Michigan State to overtime. North Carolina also has recent history in its favor, too, having made the national championship game as recently as 2022 under head coach Hubert Davis.
Speaking of recent national finalists, North Carolina’s opponent on Tuesday will be the Aztecs of San Diego State, who are no strangers to deep NCAA Tournament runs themselves. Brian Dutcher’s team made it to the title game in 2023, and while that may be a tall task this year, this SDSU team could roll off a couple wins. Notably, the Aztecs beat 1-seed Houston and 9-seed Creighton back in November, so there’s precedent for this club beating truly high-level opponents. If San Diego State can get past UNC, there is serious potential for a third-consecutive Sweet 16 for Dutcher and the Aztecs.
As for the team awaiting Tuesday’s final result, 6-seed Ole Miss enters the tournament having lost five of its past eight games in SEC play. That stretch includes a defeat at 10-seed Vanderbilt, although that is the only time this year that the Rebels fell to a team in the double-digit seed range. Will they be able to withstand whichever First Four winner comes their way?
Xavier and Texas square off on Wednesday
Moving to Wednesday’s game, Xavier and Texas will square off in a matchup between teams who sat directly next to each other in the KenPom rankings as of Sunday night.
The Musketeers saw a seven-game win streak snapped in the first round of the Big East Tournament, and the frustration was likely doubled given it was the second two-point loss of the year to 7-seed Marquette. They beat the Golden Eagles (yes, by two points) in the second meeting in the series, and they also split a pair with 9-seed Creighton. Perhaps nothing was more frustrating, however, than building a 16-point lead against 2-seed St. John’s in Madison Square Garden, only to give it up and lose in overtime. Still, there’s potential for a tourney win or two based on those performances.
On the other side, Texas limped to a 6-12 record in SEC play but made the field thanks in part to three Quad 1A victories. That includes a double-overtime win over 3-seed Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament and a mid-February home win over 3-seed Kentucky. The Longhorns also beat 6-seed Missouri, 8-seed Mississippi State and 10-seed Vanderbilt this year, and they kept it close in their sole matchup with overall top seed Auburn, falling by just five points. The Longhorns buckled under the immense pressures of their first SEC season, but those trials may make them stronger in March.
Waiting for the winner of the Xavier-Texas game is 6-seed Illinois. The Illini were riding a four-game win streak before crashing out of the Big Ten tournament with an 88-65 loss to 4-seed Maryland. Illinois has been susceptible to surprise losses this year, too, including defeats to non-tournament teams such as Rutgers, USC, Nebraska and Northwestern. Could another upset be in the cards?