That trendy March Madness upset pick that everyone is talking about? Well, they may be a better selection than you think. We break down why.
Ah, it’s the most wonderful time of year. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket is out, causing friends and family and coworkers across the country scrambling to make (and, in some instances, re-make) their March Madness selections.
Naturally, one of the major talking points leading up to first-round action is identifying which teams are capable of pulling off upsets. There are two lines of thinking here: Should you go with the school that everyone else is selecting? Or do you go against the grain and take the team less chosen?
Given the general unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament — where the odds of a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion — even “consensus” picks are hardly a given this time of year.
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It begs the question: Just how good is the general public at picking upsets? The answer may surprise you.
The chart below shows the average pick rate for each first-round upset since 2013, based on historical data from ESPN and Yahoo! Sports. For our purposes, when public confidence in a given upset is one standard deviation higher than average pick rate for its seed line, it is considered a “consensus” pick. The overall winning percentage of the lower-seeded team over that span is also included.
| Upset | Public Pick Rate | “Consensus” Pick Rate Threshold | Winning Percentage |
| 11 over 6 | 31.9% | 42.0% | 52.3% |
| 12 over 5 | 24.8% | 33.4% | 38.6% |
| 13 over 4 | 13.1% | 18.7% | 20.5% |
| 14 over 3 | 8.1% | 11.5% | 15.9% |
| 15 over 2 | 4.1% | 5.5% | 11.4% |
| 16 over 1 | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.6% |
Note just how often those 11-over-6 upsets have been happening over the past decade and change. That’s where we begin our dive into how the public has performed with its consensus upset picks.
11-over-6
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2022 Michigan | 56.0% | W, 75-63 vs. Colorado State |
| 2022 Virginia Tech | 52.5% | L, 81-73 vs. Texas |
| 2013 Minnesota | 48.4% | W, 83-63 vs. UCLA |
| 2024 Oregon | 47.5% | W, 87-73 vs. South Carolina |
| 2016 Gonzaga | 47.3% | W, 68-52 vs. Seton Hall |
| 2024 New Mexico | 47.1% | L, 77-56 vs. Clemson |
| 2015 Texas | 44.9% | L, 56-48 vs. Butler |
| 2024 NC State | 43.6% | W, 80-67 vs. Texas Tech |
| 2017 Xavier | 43.5% | W, 76-65 vs. Maryland |
| 2014 Tennessee | 43.3% | W, 86-67 vs. UMass |
The 11-vs.-6 matchup has been nearly a coin flip in recent years, with the 11-seed actually holding a slim 23-21 lead in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2013. In large part, the “consensus” 11-over-6 upsets have performed very well with seven of the 10 picks ultimately coming to fruition — the only exceptions being 2022 Virginia Tech, 2024 New Mexico and 2015 Texas. Of the consensus upset picks that panned out, all but one hailed from a power conference (save for Gonzaga, which is its own powerhouse).
12-over-5
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2021 Georgetown | 42.9% | L, 96-73 vs. Colorado |
| 2017 Middle Tennessee | 42.9% | W, 81-72 vs. Minnesota |
| 2019 Murray State | 42.3% | W, 83-64 vs. Marquette |
| 2013 Oregon | 41.7% | W, 68-55 vs. Oklahoma State |
| 2014 NC State | 40.3% | L, 83-90 vs. Saint Louis (OT) |
| 2019 Oregon | 39.1% | W, 72-54 vs. Wisconsin |
| 2023 VCU | 34.5% | L, 63-51 vs. Saint Mary’s |
Everyone’s favorite upset pick, the 12-over-5, has rendered strong results as well. This is where the mid-major sweethearts start to get involved. Since 2013, the “consensus” 12-over-5 pick has hit four out of seven times, as compared to just a 38.6% hit rate for all 12-seeds (17 upsets out of 44 games). Among the popular and memorable mid-majors in this group is Ja Morant’s 2019 Murray State squad. The Oregon Ducks have also made two Sweet 16 runs from this spot, and much of the public seemed to see it coming.
13-over-4
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2022 South Dakota State | 31.2% | L, 66-57 vs. Providence |
| 2022 Vermont | 23.3% | L, 75-71 vs. Arkansas |
| 2021 Ohio | 23.2% | W, 62-58 vs. Virginia |
| 2019 UC Irvine | 21.4% | W, 70-64 vs. Kansas State |
| 2016 Hawaii | 21.2% | W, 77-66 vs. California |
| 2023 Kent State | 21.1% | L, 71-60 vs. Indiana |
The 13-over-4 upset pick has become more popular of late with four “consensus” choices since 2021. While the winning percentage of 13-seeds since 2013 is 20.5%, the “consensus” picks have gone 3-3 (50.0%). This is where we can see the public getting a little overconfident, though. For instance, nearly a third of the country bought into South Dakota State’s top-ranked 3-point shooting in 2022 — only to watch Providence hold the Jackrabbits to 57 points in just the second game of the Thursday slate. A lot of brackets went into the wastebaskets very early that year.
14-over-3
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2017 FGCU | 18.6% | L, 86-80 vs. Florida State |
| 2019 Yale | 17.2% | L, 79-74 vs. LSU |
| 2021 Colgate | 15.4% | L, 85-68 vs. Arkansas |
| 2013 Davidson | 14.3% | L, 59-58 vs. Marquette |
| 2018 Stephen F. Austin | 13.5% | L, 70-60 vs. Texas Tech |
| 2017 New Mexico State | 11.9% | L, 91-73 vs. Baylor |
| 2022 Colgate | 11.6% | L, 67-60 vs. Wisconsin |
While the 14-over-3 “consensus” choices haven’t yet yielded an upset, there have been many close calls. FGCU had a late first-half lead in 2017 and kept things close, Yale made it interesting late in 2019 against LSU, and Davidson had a seven-point lead over Marquette with 1:49 left in 2013, only to lose by one. Since 2013, 14-seeds have defeated 3-seeds 15.9% of the time — but all of those upsets have been relatively unexpected to this point.
15-over-2
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2023 Vermont | 8.1% | L, 78-61 vs. Marquette |
| 2023 Colgate | 6.8% | L, 81-61 vs. Texas |
| 2023 Princeton | 6.4% | W, 59-55 vs. Arizona |
| 2018 Georgia State | 6.4% | L, 68-53 vs. Cincinnati |
| 2021 Iona | 6.1% | L, 68-55 vs. Alabama |
| 2021 Grand Canyon | 5.8% | L, 86-74 vs. Iowa |
| 2023 UNC Asheville | 5.7% | L, 86-53 vs. UCLA |
The 15-over-2 upset has become more common in recent years (11.4% winning percentage since 2013). Perhaps that shouldn’t be surprising given that three different 15-seeds have made Sweet 16 runs since 2021, including Saint Peter’s and its miraculous trip to the 2022 Elite Eight. However, the public has only struck on its consensus picks once in seven tries, when 2023 Princeton knocked off Arizona. The other picks haven’t been very competitive, although Iona and GCU kept it within 15 during the 2021 tournament.
16-over-1
| Upset Pick | Public Pick Rate | First-Round Result |
| 2017 South Dakota State | 4.3% | L, 66-46 vs. Gonzaga |
| 2023 Northern Kentucky | 4.2% | L, 63-52 vs. Houston |
| 2023 Howard | 4.1% | L, 96-68 vs. Kansas |
| 2018 Penn | 4.0% | L, 76-70 vs. Kansas |
| 2022 Norfolk State | 3.8% | L, 85-49 vs. Baylor |
| 2021 Drexel | 3.7% | L, 78-49 vs. Illinois |
| 2017 Texas Southern | 3.6% | L, 103-64 vs. North Carolina |
| 2023 FDU | 3.5% | W, 63-58 vs. Purdue |
| 2022 Georgia State | 3.5% | L, 93-72 vs. Gonzaga |
Until 2018, the 16-over-1 upset seemed like it would never happen. Now, with 2018 Virginia and 2023 Purdue both falling to 16-seeds in recent tournaments (and then reaching the national championship the following year) the next one feels like a matter of when and not if. Even still, picking a 16-seed in your bracket isn’t a great strategy, as tempting as the lifelong bragging rights may be if it were to happen. Perhaps the 3.5% of folks who rolled the dice on FDU would feel differently.
Takeaways and 2025 outlook
Overall, the general public is pretty good at picking upsets. Out of the 46 total “consensus” picks above, 16 became eventual upsets, good for a 34.8% success rate. Based on the winning percentages of these various matchups since 2013, the “expected” number of upsets out of these 46 picks was just 11.5 (24.9%). As a result, “consensus” upset picks by the general public are 39.1% more likely to pay off than their less popular counterparts.
Nicely done, America!
Turning the page to the 2025 tournament, there is just one “consensus” upset pick as of Monday evening: 13-seed Yale over 4-seed Texas A&M. According to Yahoo Sports, 20.9% of brackets have Yale advancing, which would make it the seventh-most picked 13-over-4 upset since 2013. If you’re still on the fence about that one, it might worth taking the plunge and jumping on the bandwagon.