The latest Rauf Report highlights five players who are set to make a significant impact on the remainder of the NCAA basketball season.
The start of each new calendar year is always an extremely interesting time in the NCAA basketball season. While teams have generally established what they’ll be this season during nonconference play, the introduction of conference schedules — and more true home/road games against familiar opponents — can lead to some interesting results.
Arizona has been one of the best teams in the country, and it has already lost a conference game to a Stanford team that was under .500 going in. UConn and Marquette, both ranked in the top 10, have suffered defeats in Big East play. Meanwhile, Creighton is just 1-2!
The point: The season finds a renewed spark in league play and teams have a chance to reinvent themselves.
We took some time off around Christmas and New Year’s, and there are too many takeaways to cover everything that happened in that time frame. However, a handful of players have stood out during that time and could make a surprising difference on the national landscape between now and Selection Sunday. In this Rauf Report, we highlight those players and why they’re worth watching.
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Jackson Shelstad could make Oregon a threat in the Pac-12
Oregon’s star freshman did not play in the first four games of the season due to a knee injury. Then, his first two collegiate games were losses to Santa Clara and Alabama. Suffice it to say, it was an inauspicious start to a career. But since then, Shelstad has found his footing and asserted himself as a reliable go-to guy.
He demonstrates tremendous feel for the game that transcends his age, and he can create his own shot off the bounce and hold his own defensively. Shelstad runs the team like a seasoned veteran with the skill to do whatever is needed from him, and he knows how to pick his spots.
All these skills were on display in Oregon’s victory over USC, which is Shelstad’s best performance to date.
“I see him working every day,” teammate Jermaine Couisnard said of Shelstad following Oregon’s victory over UCLA. “I know he puts the time in and I trust him to shoot those shots and be relaxed out there. There’s no pressure on him … I tell him to play with a free mind and be ready and be a learning sponge.”
Shelstad certainly has been that and more for the Ducks. Given that this is a down year for the Pac-12, Oregon has the opportunity to start stacking wins. It has as good of a chance as any to finish second behind Arizona, something that will only happen if Shelstad maintains this production.
Reese Waters is the difference for San Diego State
Elsewhere on the West Coast, San Diego State is playing its best basketball of the season after a rocky start that included road losses to BYU and Grand Canyon. However, since that loss, the Aztecs have won five straight games— including a double-digit victory over Gonzaga at The Kennel — with Reese Waters emerging as a star.
Even though San Diego State brought back Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell from last season’s team, Waters has become the team’s go-to perimeter option. He has recorded at least 11 points in 11 of SDSU’s 14 games, highlighted by his 22-point showing against the Zags.
While the Aztec program is built around defense and sports a balanced offense behind All-American candidate Jaedon LeDee, Waters’ performance in Spokane epitomized the impact he can — and will need to — have. Gonzaga threatened to come back on multiple occasions in the second half, but Waters came through each time with a big basket that kept the Bulldogs at bay.
Defense, depth and the emergence of LeDee have made the Aztecs a Top 25-level team and one of the favorites to win a loaded Mountain West. To maintain this trajectory, though, it will need key plays from the perimeter. Waters has stepped up and shown he is that guy for this group.
Waters suffered an ankle injury before San Diego State’s blowout victory over Fresno State on Wednesday. It does not appear to be anything serious, and the Aztecs have two games on deck they should win against UNLV and San Jose State. But Waters needs to be healthy for this SDSU team to be at its best, particularly in big moments.
Quincy Olivari’s surge makes Xavier dangerous
Xavier has had an up-and-down season to this point. At 7-7, X doesn’t appear to be in a position to do much nationally at this point. But the Musketeers have some big wins and have played Purdue, Houston and Villanova all incredibly close. They can hang with the best teams in the Big East.
The key to getting over that hump and getting back into the NCAA Tournament picture rests with Quincy Olivari. The Rice transfer has taken his game to a new level since that loss to Houston, leading to two of Xavier’s biggest wins of the season (Cincinnati, Seton Hall) and a near-upset of Villanova.
Olivari excels at getting to the foul line and has found a role in Sean Miller’s offense that allows him to hunt open shots from the perimeter within the structure of the offense. When he’s on, the Musketeers can beat anyone.
There’s a clear top four in the Big East. Still, the race behind them is wide open — especially given news of Bryce Hopkins’ season-ending knee injury for Providence. Xavier has shown the ability to make a surge. However, that will only happen if Olivari continues to play at a very high level.
Why Milan Momcilovic can be the difference for Iowa State
Iowa State wrapped up its nonconference schedule on New Year’s Eve with a rather nondescript 11-2 record. Its two losses were in close games to good teams (Virginia Tech, Texas A&M). It also has some solid wins over VCU and a blowout victory over Iowa.
It’s nothing to write home about, but it’s far from disappointing.
More importantly, it makes for an incredibly important two-week stretch from the Cyclones. After opening conference play on Saturday at Oklahoma, they will host Houston and Oklahoma State before facing both BYU and TCU on the road. The Big 12 schedule is always a gauntlet, but that is a particularly brutal stretch. Before long, we’ll know a lot more about how good Iowa State truly is.
Freshman Milan Momcilovic will play a major factor in that result. The 6-8, 220-pounder is one of the best shooters in the country. He provides a real offensive spark to a program that has been putrid on that end of the floor the last two seasons. Iowa State currently ranks 44th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, after ranking 114th a season ago.
Momcilovic isn’t the only reason for that; Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert have been really good, too. But the spacing he provides opens up TJ Otzelberger’s offense in a way we haven’t seen. Momcilovic ranks in the top 100 nationally in 3-point percentage, true shooting percentage and offensive rating, leading the Cyclones in all three categories. He is also on pace to enter the 50/40/90 club (50 percent shooting from the field, 40 percent from 3-point range, 90 percent from the foul line).
Our Lukas Harkins penned a feature earlier this season on how Momcilovic could be a major difference-maker for Iowa State. Can he help the Cyclones earn a place among the Big 12’s contenders?
Shahada Wells leading McNeese’s surprise season
McNeese State has been one of the biggest surprises of the young season. The Cowboys are 11-2 in their first season under Will Wade. That start includes impressive road victories over VCU and Michigan.
Their win over the Wolverines on Dec. 29 was led by TCU transfer Shahada Wells, who has transformed into a star McNeese. His raw stats (19.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.7 spg) are impressive enough, but his efficiency has also been incredible. Wells is shooting 52.7 percent from the floor while ranking among the nation’s leaders in assist rate, turnover rate, steal rate and usage.
All that was on full display in Ann Arbor. Wells went for 30 points while adding 10 rebounds, six assists and five steals as the Cowboys controlled the game from start to finish.
Wade’s offense is designed to get his guards attacking the rim and going downhill, which plays right into Wells’ wheelhouse. The added freedom has been a good thing. McNeese leads the country in turnover rate and has been especially efficient all over the court offensively. Wells sets that tone.
Entering Southland play, McNeese will be taking a step down in competition as no other league member ranks in the KenPom top 250. The Cowboys are projected to win the remainder of the games on their schedule. The computers expect all but three of those wins to come by double digits.
If the Cowboys maintain this level of play and run the table in the Southland, they will have a legitimate case for an at-large bid. They have a Quad 1 win. They are currently No. 42 in the NET and No. 80 in KenPom. Plus, a 29-2 regular-season record would be an overwhelming number of wins to leave out.
That scenario is very much in play — but it will only come to fruition if Wells continues to play like one of the best mid-major players in the country.
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