NCAA Basketball: Alabama’s defense, question about Tennessee highlight March 1 Rauf Report

The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the week of NCAA basketball, including two keys that may determine who wins the SEC title.

We made it, folks — it’s March! Conference tournaments begin next week with the A-Sun kicking things off with its first round on Monday. (You can find our Interactive Champ Week schedule here.)

There are still a plethora of regular season games to be played this weekend, though. Many teams still have a full week until the postseason. Conference championships are on the line in the meantime, and there are multiple close races across the country.

Few races are closer than the one in the SEC, which makes Alabama’s upcoming showdown with Tennessee the highlight of the weekend. These Final Four hopefuls square off in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with sole possession of first place on the line. Ahead of their showdown, let’s dive into both teams and discuss my concerns with them. That’s where we’ll start this Rauf Report.

More Heat Check CBB:

• NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
• Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
• Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions

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Alabama will go only as far as its defense takes it

It should not come as a shock that Alabama is a really fun, really good team. Since hiring Nate Oats in 2019, the Tide have played at one of the fastest tempos of any team in the country, all while sporting one of the country’s best offenses.

To that point, Alabama currently leads the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. The Tide have broken the 100-point barrier in four of their last five games, and they’ve notched at least 98 points in seven of their last nine.

The questions come on the other end of the floor, where Alabama’s defense has been spotty at best.

While the offense has been red hot of late, the Crimson Tide have been dreadful on the other end of the floor. They ranked 193rd in defensive efficiency in February games. That’s not indicative of a typical NCAA Tournament team — let alone a Final Four contender.

This problem started before February, though. Alabama’s defense has shined against lesser teams on its schedule, but it has wilted against its stiffer competition.

Nevertheless, Alabama has an opportunity to win the SEC for the third time in four seasons. That is a major testament to just how dominant the Crimson Tide have been offensively. They have largely been able to overcome defensive efficiencies by daring opponents to match them basket for basket.

But here’s the issue: That approach has not worked well in the NCAA Tournament historically. Alabama has made the Sweet 16 twice under Oats, but it did so with teams ranked third nationally in adjusted defense. Those 2021 and 2023 groups could get stops. As for the 2022 team, which had a defense almost as porous as this year’s, that squad was upset by Notre Dame in the first round.

Early tournament exits have been commonplace for other teams with elite offense and terrible defenses. Of the 10 teams that most closely match Alabama’s efficiency profile since 2008, none have made it out of the first weekend and only two teams won a game, per Bart Torvik. That list includes the 2022 Alabama squad, as well as last year’s Arizona team, which lost to 15-seed Princeton in the first round.

Simply put, Alabama must improve on defense. If not, the Tide may have a very short March run.

Is Tennessee too reliant on Dalton Knecht?

Tennessee is arguably the most solid Final Four contender from the SEC. Chalk that up to its typical elite defense and the emergence of Dalton Knecht as an All-American. Knecht has had plenty of impressive performances this year, but none more so than Wednesday’s 39-point outburst against Auburn.

But have the Vols become too reliant on Knecht’s offense?

At times this year, I’ve watched Tennessee lean on Dalton Knecht for everything offensively. That may not be sustainable for a deep NCAA Tournament run, though, particularly in close games.

In losses, Knecht has averaged 3.4 more shot attempts than he puts up in victories. When the Vols get down, naturally, they turn to their top scorer to bail them out. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. In the Auburn game, for instance, Knecht took 10 of Tennessee’s final 15 shots across the final 12 minutes — and the Vols turned an eight-point deficit into an eight-point victory.

Feeding the ball to your best player is a good plan in theory. However, that strategy can backfire if the other four players become non-factors. Therein lies Tennessee’s potential issue.

Take the possession below: Coming out of a late timeout, Tennessee tried to get Knecht the ball on the wing. Auburn defended the initial action well, so Zakai Zeigler kept his dribble alive — except he didn’t look elsewhere. Instead, he dribbled in a giant circle, unable to get the ball to Knecht. Zeigler ultimately had to force the action, and Auburn bailed him out with a foul.

It is worth noting that Knecht has answered the bell just about every time Tennessee has needed him to shoulder the scoring load. Rick Barnes has every reason to trust him, and there’s a real possibility that Knecht becomes the star of the NCAA Tournament as he singlehandedly carries the Vols.

If Knecht is anything short of a superstar, though, Tennessee could be in trouble. To make the Final Four for the first time in program history, his teammates must walk the line between deferring to him and becoming complete bystanders.

Colorado State’s recent slide

Colorado State has been one of the strongest teams in the Mountain West, and as of a few weeks ago, was a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament. However, the Rams have played their best recently.

Niko Medved’s squad has last four of its last five games, including three in a row. None of the losses are particularly alarming — all four came against teams ranked higher in the conference standings, three were on the road, and two were one-possession games — but the results were still disappointing for CSU.

“Tough. Heartbreaking,” star point guard Isaiah Stevens said after CSU’s most recent loss to Nevada, which came via a half-court buzzer-beater from Jarod Lucas.

“Obviously, all these games matter, especially late February going into March you want to start playing your best basketball,” he continued. “It’s not even necessarily that we feel like we’re not playing well, we just got to connect all the dots and piece it all together.”

Stevens is right — Colorado State isn’t playing all that poorly. Heck, the one win during this stretch was a 20-point drubbing of Utah State, which may win the league. However, there has been a clear dropoff from the way CSU was playing in November and December.

The Rams have been good on defense this year, but their bread and butter is offensive efficiency. Medved’s system is designed around spacing, sharing the ball, and having as many shooters on the floor as possible. However, in Mountain West play, Colorado State has dipped significantly in the metrics that correspond with that system.

If the Rams handle business against Wyoming and Air Force to close the season, they will steer clear of the bubble. But for CSU to make any noise in the NCAA Tournament, it must recover its offensive rhythm.

Why I’m still doubting Saint Mary’s

Saint Mary’s handed Colorado State its only nonconference loss, a result that helped turn the season around in Moraga. SMC is now 21-1 since its rocky 3-5 start, and the Gaels currently own the nation’s longest win streak at 16. That run includes a perfect 15-0 mark in WCC play and the program’s first outright league title since 2012.

This run has restored Saint Mary’s to the national profile it had in the preseason. The Gaels were a well-regarded group, one that many thought could make an NCAA Tournament run. The bandwagon became considerably less packed after the slow start, but it is filling back up gradually.

Still, I’m not fully on board just yet.

For starters, the issues that plagued the Gaels during that 3-5 start — namely, lackluster offensive production caused by a lack of dynamic playmakers and creators — have not disappeared. Rather, Saint Mary’s just hasn’t faced competition that can make it truly uncomfortable.

The Gaels rank just 92nd in adjusted offensive efficiency against top-50 opponents, per Torvik. Meanwhile, since the CSU win on Dec. 9, Saint Mary’s has played just one such foe: Gonzaga. SMC beat the Zags by two points in Spokane, and the two titans of the WCC will face off again on Saturday.

However, the point remains: Saint Mary’s has struggled offensively against the level of competition it will face in the NCAA Tournament.

Notably, there hasn’t been much opportunity against that kind of competition lately. After all, the WCC has been down this season. As a result, the Gaels have largely rehabilitated their resume based on bullying lesser teams. Has this squad truly turned a corner, or did it just turn down the difficulty?

Saturday’s game against Gonzaga (and the WCC Tournament) will give Saint Mary’s a chance to show its turnaround is legit. I still have my doubts, though.

Ohio State’s meaningful resurgence

Ohio State firing Chris Holtmann on Valentine’s Day was somewhat shocking, but it also felt inevitable. The Buckeyes were 14-11 with a 4-10 record in Big Ten play, just one season after posting a 5-15 mark in the league. Holtmann began his tenure with five consecutive 20-win seasons, but the program was clearly headed in the wrong direction.

However, what has happened since Holtmann’s firing is nothing short of incredible. Interim head coach Jake Diebler has led the Buckeyes to three victories over projected NCAA Tournament teams, including wins over Purdue at home and Michigan State in East Lansing.

“These guys are playing with an edge right now,” Diebler said after the Buckeyes beat Nebraska on Thursday. “They’re playing with a great deal of confidence and aggressiveness. But you’re seeing the character of the people in this program. It’s being revealed at a high level.”

That edge may end up putting the Buckeyes back in the NCAA Tournament conversation. This 3-1 stretch includes two Quad 1 victories, and they still don’t have a terrible loss. If Ohio State can beat Michigan and Rutgers to close the season, it could find its way back to the bubble.

Ohio State is still looking for its next permanent head coach to be a more proven commodity from outside the program. However, thanks to this late surge, Diebler has established himself as a hot candidate for mid-major openings in the upcoming coaching carousel.