The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the NCAA basketball weekend, headlined by two teams headed in opposite directions.
We’ve officially hit the wacky point of the NCAA Basketball season. In what was the most upset-filled week in recent memory, 15 of the teams ranked in the AP top 25 suffered at least one defeat with both Houston and Oklahoma losing twice (welcome to the Big 12, Cougars!).
Teams ranked in the top 10 went just 9-10 during the week, showing a lack of stability from many of the teams at the top of the polls. We discussed some concerns about Purdue and why North Carolina looks strong in Friday’s Rauf Report, so we’re going to start this week’s column with a look at two other top 10 teams that appear to be trending in opposite directions.
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What’s wrong with Arizona?
Arizona quickly rose to the No. 1 team in the country during the first month of the season, demonstrating its strength via quality wins over Duke, Michigan State and Wisconsin. That led to a showdown with Purdue that was billed as the Game of the Year.
The Wildcats didn’t play well but still put up a good fight before ultimately falling to the Boilermakers. The loss itself wasn’t anything to be concerned about — and yet it has started an eight-game slide for Tommy Lloyd’s squad. That contest was the start of a 4-4 stretch in which Arizona’s offense has been inconsistent and its defense has been lackluster.
All of that has led to this slide but the effort plays — defense and rebounding — have been the biggest contributors. Arizona is giving up 16 points per game more, on average, over their last eight games while doing worse on the glass. It’s also allowing opponents to shoot a much higher percentage in the paint than it was previously.
“What I see is an average basketball team that has these really high moments and then they relax,” Lloyd told reporters after the loss to Washington State. “That’s what I see. So, we got to figure that out as a coaching staff, whether that’s shaking up the lineup. These are all things I got to think about, changing what we do. But everything’s on the table.”
Struggles in January are not rare for anyone and certainly aren’t exclusionary for postseason success. UConn went through a 2-6 stretch over eight games last season and went on to win the national championship. Miami, who lost to the Huskies in the Final Four, went 3-4 during that same period.
UConn guard Tristen Newton told me before that Final Four game that the Huskies simply didn’t bring it during that stretch. They relaxed and were coasting before “we refound our identity,” he said.
So, this isn’t a time to panic for Arizona, but there is reason for urgency as this group won’t reach its goals playing at this level. It needs to find the defensive intensity it played with at the start of the season, and the Wildcats have a good opportunity to shake out of this rut with a two-game homestand upcoming against USC and UCLA.
Tennessee is showing why this season is different
Tennessee has not hit a similar slide, but the Vols were in danger of losing its second game in a row on Saturday against Georgia. They trailed by 11 points with 6:24 remaining in the game and had been off offensively — the kind of game that has caused the program to have unexpected slip-ups in the past.
The narrative around this Tennessee team is that it is different than the past teams Rick Barnes has had because it is better and more explosive offensively. Losing that game to the Bulldogs in that fashion may indicate that this is the “same old Vols.”
Instead, Tennessee showed why this season is different — it has Dalton Knecht.
The Northern Colorado transfer scored 36 points to lead the way in the comeback victory, 20 of which in the second half, including 10 in the final 5:39.
That performance, particularly with how he stepped up late in the game, had Barnes comparing Knecht to Kevin Durant (who Barnes coached at Texas).
“Mindset [is similar],” Barnes told reporters postgame. “It’s a mindset where, you know, short memory. Not afraid of the moment, willing to go make the big play and if they don’t, they’ve got a great ability to bounce back.”
Knecht had gone through some offensive struggles recently, reaching double figures just once in five games coming into this week. Now, after a 28-point showing in a loss to Mississippi State and Saturday’s 36-point explosion, it’s safe to say he’s back in rhythm.
Having him back in the rhythm and knowing how he can step up in crucial late-game situations should provide plenty of confidence in what this team can do moving forward.
Maryland might be turning things around
Maryland’s offense has seemingly been out of rhythm all season. It does not take a trained basketball eye to see that scoring can be a painfully burdensome process for this group (see Thursday’s victory over Michigan).
The numbers more than back that up. The Terrapins rank 170th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and 296th in effective field goal percentage largely because they’re one of the 10 worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.
It’s bad. But what if I told you that Maryland has significantly improved and is actually turning its season around?
Kevin Willard’s squad has won seven of its last nine games and is only a game out of second place in the Big Ten following Sunday’s upset win over Illinois. It was the first time a top-seven team in the conference lost at home in league play this season, and the fact Maryland is the team that pulled it off is a truly shocking notion considering how it was playing at the start of the season.
But its improvement has been significant. While not shooting better from the floor overall, Maryland is connecting on 3-point attempts at a much higher rate, is turning the ball over less, performing much better on the glass and playing with more efficiency during this nine-game run.
The Terrapins have managed this by accepting their faults and playing into their identity. Defensively, this is still an elite group that ranks in the top 20 nationally on that end. They also have two all-conference caliber players in Jahmir Young and Julian Reese, and they’ve settled into running virtually everything through them. That duo combined for 48 of the team’s 76 points against Illinois and were dominant around the rim.
Willard pointed to an emphasis on getting the ball inside in his postgame comments as something that has helped this team and will continue to be an emphasis going forward. Their strength in the frontcourt, coupled with how well they’re playing defensively, can help Maryland maintain this level of play.
It may not be enough to get Maryland back to the NCAA Tournament, but this season was on track to be an absolute disaster with the Terps being one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Their recent play has shown they aren’t that.
Providence is sinking without Bryce Hopkins
Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports, and there was an outpouring of support for Bryce Hopkins when he tore his ACL on Jan. 3 against Seton Hall. This Providence team looked like it could potentially compete with the best teams in the Big East with how well he and Devin Carter were playing as leaders, and things have crumbled since.
Prior to that game against the Pirates, Providence had the No. 2 defense nationally in adjusted efficiency, per Torvik. Since then, the Friars rank outside the top 75, highlighting the biggest change in play in what has been a rough two weeks since the injury.
That 0-4 slide has put Providence in a precarious situation where, after looking like a clear top-25 team, there’s a real chance this team could miss the NCAA Tournament. Few teams in the country could handle a loss to a player as impactful as Hopkins and maintain the same level of play without him, but head coach Kim English doesn’t want to make that an excuse for poor results.
“No one cares [about excuses],” English told reporters this week. “We just have to find a way to get it done.”
Finding that way may involve changing how Providence plays. The Friars were excellent on the glass and at protecting the rim with Hopkins, but both areas have fallen off a cliff (as you’d expect) since the injury. Providence’s play on both ends has suffered mightily as a whole because of it.
It’s clear this is Devin Carter’s team now and his usage has gone through the roof during these four games. That isn’t a bad thing. But, if Providence is going to get back on track, its frontcourt has to step up to help this group find its defensive identity again.
Gabe Dynes is a name to know now
I wrote about Youngstown State in a Rauf Report right before Christmas, and the Penguins are continuing to play at a high level that is putting them in the mix to potentially win the Horizon for a second straight season.
Jarrod Calhoun’s squad is continuing to improve, and one of the biggest reasons why has been the emergence of 7-3, 190-pound freshman Gabe Dynes.
Dynes has seen his minutes fluctuate throughout the season but has become one of my favorite players to watch because of the rim protection he brings. His 15.9 block rate would rank second in the country (behind Ole Miss center Jamarion Sharp) if he played enough minutes to qualify.
The freshman’s six blocks on Friday against Wright State helped change the momentum of the game, which ultimately resulted in a big win for the Penguins.
In addition to his rim protection, Dynes has shown the ability to be a very good passer and has a deft touch around the rim. He obviously has to get stronger, but he’s finding a way to impact games with his size and length — giving Youngstown State an added dimension that many other mid-major teams don’t have and struggle to defend.
It’s also a dimension the Penguins haven’t had under Calhoun. This is still an offensively focused team, but last year’s team had the highest-rated defense under Calhoun, which was still just 264th, per KenPom. This season, they’re up to 168th (best in the Horizon) and Dynes will only play a bigger role moving forward. That provides a legitimate reason to believe Youngstown State can keep pace at the top of the Horizon and be a real factor in March.
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