With college basketball in full swing, this latest Rauf Report details Duke’s first disappointment, Auburn’s guard question, Arizona State’s hot start and much more.
The Champions Classic is behind us, and Duke’s star freshman Cooper Flagg has been at the forefront of media conversations after his debut on the big stage. Flagg did a lot of incredible things and put up great stats, but he also had the two backbreaking turnovers late.
The performance was largely excellent. Flagg has been as-advertised: a phenomenal defender and great passer who can score from all three levels and make clutch plays on both ends. Those two turnovers, though, were a byproduct of trying to do too much.
In a tied game with 20 seconds left, Duke ran an isolation set with Flagg at the top of the key. Flagg gets to where he wants to go, putting his defender on his hip and spinning to the middle to create space. The problem: veteran Otega Oweh was there ready to pounce.
That’s a great defensive play by Oweh, but it’s also a move Flagg has used countless times already. Still, being defended by Kentucky is vastly different from being defended by Army.
Now trailing, Flagg got the switch he wanted on the next possession — but he tried to rush things. With his mind moving quicker than his body, the freshman mishandled the dribble and lost it out of bounds.
While the loss hurts for Duke, I really think both turnovers were simple cases of a young player making young mistakes. Flagg will learn from them and get better because of them — and will make the Blue Devils much better for it.
Now, let’s get into the rest of this Rauf Report:
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Auburn’s point guard conundrum
Perhaps no team has been as good as Auburn to start the season. The Tigers have blown out two high level mid-majors in Vermont and Kent State, with a road victory over a great Houston team sandwiched in the middle. There is no reason for anyone to feel anything but great about what Bruce Pearl’s squad has accomplished this season.
But — deep breath, dramatic pause — there might be one thing.
Look, we’re bringing this up because the Tigers are now in that truly elite tier of national championship favorites across the sport. The top of the top. It’s a good place to be. It’s also where we start to nitpick about what could potentially keep this team from winning a national title or even reaching the Final Four.
For Auburn, the nit to pick is a lack of consistent production from the lead guard spot.
Furman transfer JP Pegues was supposed to be that guy, and maybe he can still turn into him. But Pegues hasn’t made a shot since the Vermont game (he was 3-for-3 against the Catamounts) and was dropped from the starting lineup against Kent State. Miles Kelly started instead, and he was rather ineffective against Kent State.
Freshman Tahaad Pettiford has been the guy, flashing his potential with his 21-point showing against Houston, which Auburn doesn’t win if not for his scoring. That being said, the freshman recorded as many fouls as points (nine) across the other two games.
To be clear, this hasn’t been a real issue for Auburn — yet. After all, it’s only Nov. 15, and Pettiford did lead the Tigers to a top-10 win. The inconsistent lead guard production is something to monitor, though, especially considering the same problem ultimately led to Auburn’ doom in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Is it time to recalibrate expectations for Arizona State?
Remember Arizona State’s 103-47 exhibition loss Duke on Oct. 27? Many wrote off the Sun Devils after that, and head coach Bobby Hurley considered it a real wake-up call.
“Hats off to where [the Blue Devils] are, and ‘Oh sh-t’ about where we are,” Hurley said after that game.
Since then, however, ASU has looked good. A seven-point win over Santa Clara was a step in the right direction, as was an eight-point loss at Gonzaga in which the Sun Devils led most of the way. They followed that up with a win over Grand Canyon on Thursday in Phoenix — notable considering the Lopes were 5.5-point favorites and received more votes in the AP poll.
“Nobody in the country, through four games, has played a harder schedule than us,” Hurley said postgame. “For us to be where we are right now, we’re in a good spot. … We’re excited about where things are going.”
Ball State transfer Basheer Jihad has become an offensive force, averaging 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds against Gonzaga and Grand Canyon. Freshmen Joson Sanon and Jayden Quaintance have been effective in major roles, and Adam Miller and Missouri State transfer Alston Mason have been steady.
This group has all the components of a typical Hurley team: three or four guards on the court at all times, everyone can create their own shot, and they shoot a lot of 3-pointers. ASU can get sloppy with the ball and struggle on the glass, but the good has far outweighed the bad so far.
Arizona State’s offense has been its most efficient since 2018-19, when it made the NCAA Tournament and won a First Four game. Add in a top-50 defense, and the Sun Devils look like they could finish in the second tier of the Big Ten.
UCF might be legitimately good
In our preseason Big 12 preview, I wrote that UCF could be one of the more interesting teams to follow this season given the former high school stars on its roster, the scoring it brought in from the transfer portal, and how the Knights overachieved in their first season in the conference.
It’s hard to ask for a better two weeks than what head coach Johnny Dawkins’ squad has put up so far.
The Knights knocked off Texas A&M on opening night, beat a solid Purdue-Fort Wayne team, and overcame a double-digit deficit on Tuesday to beat a FAU team that has been impressive in its own right.
Keyshawn Hall (26 points), Jordan Ivy-Curry (24) and Darius Johnson (21) all had incredible backcourt performances in that 100-94 victory over the Owls, showcasing the kind of offensive firepower UCF had yet to tap into during its first two games.
“It says we have some guys capable of putting the ball in the hole. They also showed that they’re willing to share the basketball,” Dawkins said of his team’s offensive performance. Still, he realizes that there is plenty of room to grow after a few slow starts.
“These guys are still learning to play with each other,” he explained. “You’re three games into the season — I expect some of that.”
A good three-game stretch means nothing in the grand scheme of things. Heck, UCF started the 2021-22 campaign with four straight victories, including one at Miami, before going 14-12 the rest of the way.
On the other hand, almost every other UCF season has been quickly derailed with non-competitive losses against quality competition. This team has talent — and two early victories over KenPom top-85 teams, one of which is ranked in the top 20. These Knights might be legit.
Providence’s offensive struggles
The Friars needed every bit of offense they could scrape up to get past Central Connecticut in the opener and, more recently, Hampton on Tuesday. Providence trailed for a good portion of both those games, only to get bailed out by its defense against lesser opponents.
It’s clear that things just haven’t clicked without Bryce Hopkins. Perimeter players like Jabri Abdur-Rahim (Georgia), Wesley Cardet Jr. (Chicago State) and Bensley Joseph (Miami) were brought in to help replace the offense hole left by Devin Carter and others. None of those players have worked out so far, and it’s creating a weird offensive profile.
For instance, Providence ranks 11th nationally in 3-point rate, meaning they attempt more 3-pointers than just about anyone. However, the Friars rank 221st in 3-point percentage, making just 31.0 percent of those attempts. Only Louisville (and its dismal shooting performance against Tennessee) is shooting more 3-pointers at a worse percentage among major conference teams.
This guard-heavy roster is also turning the ball over at an extremely alarming rate (26.0, 348th nationally) and isn’t getting to the foul line.
I don’t expect the Friars to remain in dogfights with the likes of Central Connecticut and Hampton for the entire season. That said, Providence has legitimate issues that go well beyond Hopkins’ absence. His return will give this team a boost — whenever that ends up being — but there are some perimeter issues here that need quick fixes.
Utah’s offense has been buzzing
You know who isn’t struggling offensively right now? Utah.
Picked to finish near the very bottom of the Big 12, the Utes were an afterthought throughout the preseason — but they are 3-0 going into this weekend’s showdown with Mississippi State. Wins over Alcorn State, Central Arkansas and Queens don’t mean much, but it’s notable how Craig Smith’s squad has gotten here.
Utah has played at a relatively average tempo each of the past three seasons, shooting a moderate amount of 3-pointers and making them at a relatively average clip. The outside barrage saw a slight uptick last year, and now, the Utes are all in on the 3-point revolution.
This isn’t just a case of a coach finally getting “his” players into the system and being able to run what he wants. Before last season, none of Smith’s teams at South Dakota, Utah State or Utah ranked above 133rd nationally in 3-point rate. This team is simply leaning into it harder than ever.
Personnel helps drive a change like this. Gabe Madsen and Mason Madsen are two of the nation’s better shooters, Mike Sharavjamts made 40 3-pointers for San Francisco a year ago, and a handful of other players are elite shooters as well.
Part of the reason why expectations were low for Utah is because there isn’t a ton of traditional talent on this roster — but there are a lot of shooters or guys who can shoot. Smith and his coaching staff are leaning right into that identity and embracing it in a way few other teams in the country have.
Sunday’s game against Mississippi State will be the first test of whether this strategy changes the team’s outlook at all. Regardless, one thing is for sure: Utah will be fun to watch this year.
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