The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the week of NCAA basketball, including why Kentucky fans shouldn’t panic.
Now less than a week away from March, we have recently been reminded of one simple truth: Even great teams aren’t invincible.
Purdue’s loss to Ohio State on Sunday, followed by UConn’s blowout loss at the hands of Creighton on Tuesday, were the most recent examples of quality teams struggling on the road. At the same time, neither result is necessarily a referendum on either club.
The Boilermakers had won nine in a row and have suffered exactly one loss in each of the last three months, all of which have been on the road. Matt Painter’s squad has been as consistent as they come, and one minor slip-up here or there doesn’t indicate the sky is falling. The same is true for the Huskies, who had tied a Big East record with 14 consecutive conference victories before losing in Omaha. Yes, the way UConn lost was certainly jarring, but it was an anomaly.
Remember, there’s a reason no one has completed an undefeated season since 1976. It’s hard!
Those two still occupy the nation’s top tier, and it’s fair to say that Houston is entering that mix as well. The Coogs picked up a statement victory over Iowa State on Monday, avenging one of their three losses on the season. We’ll touch on Houston more in a bit, but we start this Rauf Report with a look at another team capable of playing at the highest level.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
Rauf Report readers can now get 15% off their purchase with Homefield by using promo code REPORT at checkout! Homefield is the premier collegiate apparel brand with over 150 schools to choose from. Visit their website and use promo code REPORT for 15% off!
Why I believe in Kentucky
I understand why Kentucky fans are ringing the alarm bells. The Wildcats are just 6-6 in their last 12, and Wednesday’s road loss to LSU saw them blow a 15-point second-half lead. This comes on the heels of the worst stretch of John Calipari’s tenure in Lexington. UK hasn’t reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2019.
However, Kentucky’s performance provided positive signs moving forward and continues an upward trend for the Wildcats.
Kentucky’s hot start featured plenty of dazzling offense for both the Wildcats and their opponents. The Cats were among the worst defensive teams in the power conferences, which came up in January losses to Texas A&M and South Carolina.
Since the South Carolina loss, though, the Wildcats have been solid on the defensive end of the floor. Most importantly, they’re continuing to improve. Calipari’s unit boasts a top-50 defense since Jan. 23, per Torvik, and its metrics continue to improve every week.
- Adjusted defensive efficiency through Jan. 23: 101.5 (118th)
- AdjD since loss to South Carolina on Jan. 23: 98.6 (48th)
- AdjD since loss to Tennessee on Feb. 3: 95.4 (31st)
- AdjD since loss to Gonzaga on Feb. 10: 85.4 (5th)
This is not to say there are no more questions about Kentucky’s defense. Both Gonzaga and LSU destroyed the Wildcats with drives to the basket and took advantage of UK’s lackluster perimeter defense. It is still a major issue that flares up too frequently, but there has been substantial improvement.
The LSU loss, however, was more due to stagnant offense. The Tigers ripped off a 29-9 run over nearly 10 minutes in the second half, and that run completely flipped the game around. I don’t expect this high-powered Kentucky offense to go quiet like that too often.
Alabama will provide perhaps the toughest test of the season for Kentucky’s defense, especially on the perimeter. We’ll know a lot more about this team’s ceiling after that game, but it’s fair to say the Wildcats are more prepared to meet that challenge than you may think.
Jamal Shead’s offense is the biggest key to Houston’s March success
Houston, meanwhile, has no problems on the defensive end of the court. In fact, the Cougars are on pace to put up one of the best defensive seasons in the analytical era. That isn’t necessarily a surprise — defense has been the calling card under Kelvin Sampson. Houston has recorded four straight seasons with a top-10 defense, per KenPom.
Any doubts about whether this Houston team occupies the same tier as Purdue and UConn stem from the offense. Do the Cougars have enough firepower?
This was a fairly valid question during the first half of the season. The Cougars weren’t tested much in nonconference play. They were also involved in closer-than-expected games against a trio of bubble teams (Utah, Xavier, Texas A&M). Houston struggled to pull away offensively, and those issues were problematic in back-to-back losses to Iowa State and TCU.
Since those losses, however, Houston’s offense has been much better. That’s almost solely due to the play of Jamal Shead. The senior point guard has taken his game to another level, maintaining his efficiency while increasing his usage.
Shead’s ability to create with the ball in his hand, either for himself or others, has been the key. Whether in a pick-and-roll or an isolation set, the 6-1 dynamo consistently finds a way to get downhill or create space for a jumper.
“Jamal Shead paid his dues. And those are the guys that, when it comes time to step up, you can depend on,” Sampson told reporters after Shead’s 26-point, six-assist night against Iowa State on Monday. “He was the guy that was not going to let us lose tonight.”
Shead has to carry a significant burden, but this Houston team will go as far as he can take them.
Washington State has a real chance to make an NCAA Tournament run
Washington State’s victory over Arizona didn’t go final until early Friday morning on the East Coast, but it may have been the single most impactful victory of the week. It not only put the Cougars in first place in the Pac-12, but it also hammered home the potential of one of the hottest teams in the country.
“Incredible win for our program,” head coach Kyle Smith told reporters postgame. “Our guys just gutted it out. (Arizona is) really hard to defend, and they opened up the second half with some transition.”
Few could’ve seen this coming given Washington State’s inauspicious start. The Cougars were 10-5 overall, including a 1-3 mark in conference play, after a Jan. 6 loss to Oregon. The team also lacked any real significant wins at that point.
Since then, Wazzu is 11-1. This stretch is far from fluff, too. The Cougars have four Quad 1 wins in those 12 games, plus another four Quad 2 victories. The lone loss came in overtime at Cal.
It feels like this group has finally come together. Given the mass turnover the program experienced this offseason, it unsurprisingly took some time to get things rolling. The Cougars lost their four leading scorers from last season, and top transfer addition Joseph Yesufu (Kansas) only played in six games before a hip injury ended his season.
Washington State has now found its rhythm and isn’t looking back. Jaylen Wells, who had the four-point play that ultimately proved to be the winner against Arizona, perfectly summed up the Wazzu locker room in postgame comments.
“I think it’s a big win for us, just because people thought we were the underdogs,” he said. “People saying ‘Oh, you’ve got to play Arizona.’ No, they’ve got to play us.”
Many teams won’t want to play Washington State moving forward. The Cougars are poised to make their first NCAA Tournament since 2008 and will present unique challenges for whoever they face. Redshirt freshman Myles Rice, their leading scorer and point guard, is the only starter under 6-8. He and fellow freshman Isaiah Watts are the only rotation players under 6-7. That mix of length and versatility allows WSU to be elite defensively while holding their own on the inside.
Those early-season struggles will impact Washington State’s seed, but its recent play has proven this is an incredibly dangerous team.
Dayton’s recent slide
Dayton has been a trendy pick to make a tournament run, and it’s easy to see why. Big man DaRon Holmes II is a projected first-round pick in the NBA Draft, and the Flyers were 19-3 not long ago!
However, the Flyers are headed in the wrong direction.
Dayton won 16 of its first 18 games with the only losses coming to Northwestern and Houston, each away from home, over the first two weeks of the season. Both were understandable, and Dayton’s ensuing 13-game win streak alleviated any concerns.
There are concerns now, though. Anthony Grant’s squad is only 5-3 over their last eight games, and there’s been a significant drop in play on both ends of the court.
A late January loss at Richmond is forgivable. So is a defeat at the hands of VCU at the Siegel Center. Wednesday’s loss to George Mason might be the tipping point, though. Holmes was the only player who could get anything going for the Flyers, who were also outrebounded and beaten soundly inside.
Looking more closely, Dayton’s record seems a tad inflated. Those two Quad 1 wins came against SMU and Cincinnati, neither of whom are projected to make the NCAA Tournament. None of their five Q2 wins are against teams projected to be in the field of 68 either, according to Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins.
Dayton still has good overall metrics, which should give it a solid seed on Selection Sunday. Still, its recent play and lack of success against tournament-caliber teams is troublesome. The Flyers must close strong.
Colgate’s historic run
I want to close with a shoutout to Colgate because what head coach Matt Langel has done with the Raiders is absolutely incredible.
Colgate’s victory over Lafayette on Monday was its 12th-consecutive victory and clinched the program’s fifth regular-season Patriot League title in six seasons. That’s a remarkable achievement for anyone, let alone a program that only had three conference championships before this run.
The win also gave the Raiders their fifth 20-win season in the last six years, a first for the program. By the way, the lone season without 20 wins was the COVID-shortened campaign in 2020-21 — when the Raiders went 14-2.
The only thing missing from this run is an NCAA Tournament victory, so the goal is clear for Langel.
“The team that wins the Patriot League championship and gets to represent the conference in the NCAA Tournament is the team that’s playing the best in March. To win a regular season championship is an incredible accomplishment, but we need to start getting ready to play our best,” he explained following the Lafayette victory.
“The only way I know how to play our best in the tournament is to finish the regular season well,” Langel added. “We’ve got more work to do to be the best version of Colgate basketball.”
Colgate has appeared in each of the last four NCAA Tournaments, earning two No. 15 seeds and two No. 14 seeds. Harkins currently projects this Raiders team as a No. 15 seed. Could this be the year the Raiders finally pull off the big upset?
You must be logged in to post a comment.