The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the week of NCAA Basketball action, headlined by a look at Creighton’s puzzling losses.
Full disclosure: I was planning on writing this week’s Rauf Report as a strict look-ahead to this weekend’s massive slate of games because a) there are so many good games, highlighted by Arizona-Purdue on Saturday; and b) this week’s slate kind of stunk on paper.
But, as the saying goes, games aren’t played on paper!
Wednesday night alone provided plenty of storylines. Northwestern, who had just entered the AP Top 25 and was looking to pick up its first home victory as a ranked team since the Eisenhower administration, lost at home to Chicago State. Louisville was blown out by Arkansas State and Creighton was beaten handily on the road by UNLV.
We will touch on all of these games, along with a couple more takeaways in this Rauf Report. But we need to start with a look at why this Creighton team has been so hot and cold this season.
Creighton’s two key factors
This Bluejay team has looked really strong at times and has enough impressive performances, particularly against Iowa, Nebraska and Oklahoma State. It’s enough to conclude that Creighton is good. However, this team has also been relatively uncompetitive in its two losses to Colorado State and now UNLV.
The obvious culprit is poor shooting. Creighton shoots a ton of 3-pointers by design (third nationally in 3-point attempt rate, per KenPom). The program recruits accordingly, so it’s no surprise the system is based on having elite production from the perimeter.
This core Creighton group has been together since last season. They are the definition of a team that lives by the 3 and dies by the 3:
- 2023-24 — 8-0 when shooting at least 34.5 percent from 3-point range, 0-2 when under
- 2022-23 — 16-3 when shooting over 37.0 percent from 3-point range, 8-10 when under
Clearly, shooting better from the field increases a team’s chances of winning. However, in Creighton’s case, there isn’t much else the Bluejays can rely on to make up for a cold shooting night. They’re the worst team in the country — dead last — at forcing turnovers, and they aren’t protecting the rim at the same clip as last year.
Those losses have also coincided with a major dip in production from Trey Alexander, Creighton’s best pro prospect. Here are his win/loss splits this season:
We’re only 10 games into the campaign, but trends are starting to form. Creighton needs to shoot well to win, and it looks like they also need Alexander to play well. Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman are excellent, yet the Bluejays seem to go as Alexander goes.
And, with a big three-game stretch coming up, they need him to perform at a high level.
The Kenny Payne era needs to end
Louisville’s loss to Arkansas State was less shocking than Creighton’s, which speaks to the state of the Cardinal program. It was Louisville’s first double-digit home loss to a team with a losing record since 1963. And that was only part of the ongoing circus within the program.
The program made an official announcement early Wednesday that Koron Davis, who has not appeared in a game this season, was transferring. Davis stated he never told anyone he wanted to transfer. Louisville countered by explaining he was dismissed from the team. However, Davis still showed up to the game to watch his now-former team lose to the Red Wolves.
It was just the latest in a long line of borderline unbelievable off-court incidents since Kenny Payne took over (remember the tights fiasco?). Couple that with the disastrous on-court play, and it’s clear the program needs to move on.
Parting with Payne appears to be a matter of when, not if. The longer this goes on, the more Louisville hurts itself.
This is a proud program that should be one of the nation’s best on a near-annual basis. Louisville has elite history, resources and fan support. It should expect more from itself than the laughingstock it has become under Payne. For the record, I was an advocate of the hire — there was nothing in his track record to suggest this was on the horizon.
But, now that we’re here, it’s best for everyone involved to part ways sooner than later.
The biggest win in Chicago State history?
Chicago State’s history as a college basketball punchline may be coming to an end, too. Last year, head coach Gerald Gillion led the Cougars to 11 victories for the first time in a decade. That raised expectations for this year.
“We’re starting to figure out how to win with those little details,” Gillion told me for The Almanac. “It allowed us to gain confidence. We have to do that more at a consistent rate.”
Chicago State limped out to a 3-9 start, but that breakthrough finally happened Wednesday against Northwestern.
It was the Cougars’ first win over an AP-ranked opponent in program history, and it finally gave the program a victory to hang its hat on. Wesley Cardet Jr. was the best player on the court, with 30 points, four rebounds and four assists.
“This is probably one of the biggest wins in the state of Illinois history,” Gillion told reporters postgame. “For Chicago State, not even a question. This was huge. Huge for our guys.”
Now, Chicago State has to turn this momentum into more victories. But for the moment, the Cougars have legitimate momentum for the first time in a while.
Jared McCain is Duke’s X-factor
Duke’s season has been filled with more downs than ups. This was a consensus preseason top-3 team that has already fallen out of the rankings. I’ve gone into detail about the offensive struggles in past Rauf Report columns, and those issues remain, particularly with Tyrese Proctor out.
There are a handful of role players that need to step up and produce consistently, but Jared McCain has shown he can provide exactly what Duke needs as a shooter and a secondary scoring option.
The five-star freshman has been that guy against Duke’s weaker opponents. However, when the Blue Devils have faced higher-level competition, McCain becomes virtually invisible:
There are going to be freshman struggles, particularly during the first month of his college career. Still, the disappearing act is really hurting this group. McCain isn’t the only problem — I’ve written a lot about that, too, from Proctor’s regression to the lack of overall shooting to a lack of depth to a lack of rim protection. But McCain has the potential to swing Duke’s season if he can start producing against the team’s better opponents.
Impact of NCAA transfer decision
Alright, let’s take a collective deep breath before we dive into this.
On Wednesday, a judge in West Virginia issued a 14-day temporary restraining order against the NCAA in favor of those protesting the NCAA’s two-time transfer rules. The ruling seemingly granted eligibility for two-time non-graduate transfers who had not been cleared to play.
The NCAA, for its part, seemed to accept defeat in the matter. It issued a statement shortly thereafter saying that it “will not enforce in the year in residency requirement for multiple-time transfers.” Essentially, that meant everyone was eligible and the NCAA wasn’t going to fight it.
Except they might fight it!
On Thursday, the NCAA let schools know that players may lose a year of eligibility if they play during this 14-day window and the court order is reversed.
I do not know why the NCAA continues to take these stances. I understand the two-time transfer rule based on my prior knowledge of the sport — this is just the way things work. But I also don’t see a way the NCAA wins in this given the way this hearing went and the way courts continue to view the organization. This goes back to 2021, when Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh ruled that the NCAA did not have antitrust protection.
Bud Elliott, a college football and recruiting analyst for 247sports and the Cover 3 Podcast, laid it out plainly:
Bud is right! Based on logic and the way the courts have set a precedent on how they view the NCAA, it’s hard to believe this ruling won’t be made in favor of the athletes. It probably should be, too, at least until the NCAA gets some legitimate legislation around schools being able to compensate athletes directly.
One way or another, this whole ordeal will likely force the NCAA into action after dragging its feet and avoiding the inevitable for too long.
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