The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the weekend of NCAA basketball, including looks at Gonzaga, Villanova and much more.
We’ve officially reached the start of the NCAA basketball postseason! The ASUN Conference starts its tournament today. The Horizon, Patriot League and Sun Belt all kick off Tuesday. In total, eight leagues will start their tournaments before Friday, and the first four NCAA Tournament bids will be handed out this weekend. (You can find our Interactive Champ Week schedule here.)
It’s officially the best time of year.
However, there are still plenty of meaningful trends to follow over the final week of the regular season and into conference tournament action. We’ll start this Rauf Report with Gonzaga, which is playing at a high level and becoming a more serious threat.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
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Gonzaga’s improvement makes it a March threat
I have, admittedly, been down on Gonzaga this season. Depth, 3-point shooting and defense have all been concerns for this team. During the first half of the season, those issues kept the Bulldogs from reaching the caliber of play we’ve come to expect from this program.
After an underwhelming 11-5, which culminated in a Jan. 11 loss at Santa Clara, Gonzaga found itself in bubble territory. Without many marquee wins available in the WCC, the Zags remained on the bubble — until last weekend’s resounding 70-57 victory at Saint Mary’s, which likely secured their at-large bid.
Gonzaga has greatly improved since the Santa Clara loss, particularly on offense. Still, in a down year for the WCC, there weren’t many chances to validate that turnaround. Yes, the Bulldogs won at Kentucky, but that result seemingly said more about the Wildcats than it did of Gonzaga. After drubbing the Gaels, though, there’s no doubting how dangerous this team is.
Gonzaga has led the nation in effective field goal percentage since Jan. 11, largely thanks to the play of Graham Ike. The star big man has scored at least 20 points in 11 of 14 games in this span, including each of the last seven. As a team, the Zags have a top-three offense in the sport over those seven games. It’s a testament to how far this group has come and the identity it has established.
That development is something Few talked about after the Saint Mary’s win. He lamented the early season “narrative” around the Zags and praised how much they’ve improved.
Thanks to that improvement, Gonzaga is peaking at the right time. This group isn’t perfect — but it’s a team no one wants to face in the NCAA Tournament.
Villanova is putting it together at the right time
Speaking of improvement, Villanova was largely dead and buried after a five-game losing streak in January left them just above .500. Coupled with early season losses to Penn, Saint Joseph’s and Drexel, serious questions began to surface about head coach Kyle Neptune’s future.
Over the last month, however, the Wildcats have re-entered the bubble conversation. And with Saturday’s road win over Providence, they likely cemented their place on the right side of that bubble.
Villanova is 6-2 since the start of February and has avoided taking any more bad losses. Its offense has gotten better, but a vastly improved defense has been leading the turnaround. Only UConn has scored more than 62 points against Villanova over its last eight games, and five opponents have been held to 56 points or fewer.
“We have multiple guys who have been through a lot in their careers, and we’ve been through a lot together as a unit,” Neptune told reporters Saturday. “I think it’s hardened us over this year. Our goal is always to be the best by the end, and I think we’re trending that way.”
This revitalized Villanova team will be tested twice in the final week of the regular season. The Wildcats will travel to face Seton Hall with the chance to usurp fourth place in the Big East standings, a spot that provides a double bye in the conference tournament. Following Wednesday’s tilt in Newark, Villanova hosts a surging Creighton team on Saturday.
If it wins both of those games, Villanova will not be sweating on Selection Sunday. Given how the Wildcats started the season, it would feel like a minor miracle.
Kam Jones’ importance to Marquette
Sticking in the Big East, Creighton’s win over Marquette made it six victories in seven games for the Jays. However, the conversation after the game wasn’t about Creighton — it was about how Marquette battled without stars Tyler Kolek (oblique) and Oso Ighodaro (illness).
Those ailments left the Golden Eagles with a particularly short rotation, and three players played at least 37 minutes. No one on either side played more than Kam Jones, who did not leave the floor.
Jones has been one of the nation’s more underrated players all season long, and he made a clear statement in this game about his talent. The 6-5, 200-pounder had 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting, following up on his scorching hot February.
Kolek and Ighodaro are the two most talked about players on Marquette’s roster, and for good reason, yet Jones’ production is extremely critical to the team’s success. The Golden Eagles were at their best early in the season, and they appear to have recaptured that form. Both stretches have been fueled by highly efficient production from Jones.
Marquette has expectations of the long NCAA Tournament run that eluded the Golden Eagles last season. Undoubtedly, Kolek and Ighodaro will have to be major factors in that run if it’s going to happen. But keep an eye on Kam Jones, too, as his scoring has been the key to unlocking this group’s full potential.
Loyola Chicago may be the team to beat in the A10
A relatively down year for the Atlantic 10 is shaping up to give us one of the most intriguing conference tournaments of the season. Dayton is the only A-10 team projected to make the NCAA Tournament, as everyone else either struggled mightily in nonconference play or saw a dip once league play began. Still, a slew of teams are playing at an NCAA Tournament level right now.
Richmond is in first place, while both VCU and UMass are right in line for 20-win seasons. A few others, namely Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s, have shown they can beat anyone on any given night.
That said, no one in the conference is playing better than Loyola Chicago right now. The Ramblers are just a game behind Richmond in the standings after Friday night’s spotlight win over Dayton.
Loyola is getting it done with defense. The Ramblers rank 21st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per Torvik, anchored by their high-end interior play. They are among the D1 leaders in interior defense and block rate thanks to a pair of high-end rim protectors. Freshman Miles Rubin has quickly emerged as a force, ranking second in the country in block rate. Meanwhile, Dartmouth transfer Dame Adelekun ranks in the league’s top 10 for that category.
The Ramblers do have room to grow offensively. However, recent adjustments from head coach Drew Valentine have this group playing at a much higher level.
Loyola’s shot at winning the A-10 Tournament depends upon the continued success of those offensive tweaks. The Ramblers may not be the top seed in Brooklyn, but they are looking like the favorites to claim the league’s auto-bid.
Could USC be a factor in the Pac-12 Tournament?
While Arizona and Washington State battle for the Pac-12 regular-season title, the rest of the conference is mired in parity and mediocrity. For example, half the teams in the league are currently under .500 on the season.
While that won’t get many teams into the NCAA Tournament — there’s a real possibility the Pac-12 is only a two-bid league — it should make for a really fun and wide-open conference tournament.
That makes USC’s recent spike in play very intriguing. The Trojans have been incredibly disappointing this year. Once ranked as high as No. 16 in November, USC held a 9-15 overall record just a few weeks ago. More recently, though, the results have been much more reflective of the talent on this roster.
Andy Enfield’s squad has won three of its last five games, all against quality competition. Their two losses weren’t bad, either. One came to Colorado in double overtime, and the other was a three-point defeat at Washington State. This USC group has collectively picked up its level of play on both ends of the court, and it’s paying dividends.
Arizona is the only Pac-12 team to post better efficiency numbers than USC during this five-game stretch. It is a small sample size, but the Trojans are putting it together at the right time of the season. If USC can maintain momentum this week while hosting the Arizona schools, expect this group to enter the Pac-12 Tournament as a sleeper with legitimate bid-stealing potential.
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