The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the NCAA basketball weekend, including why Illinois’ defense may be a problem.
So many fun and impactful things happened during the weekend of NCAA Basketball, but they will be overshadowed by the latest court-storming controversy. In case you were living under a rock for the last two days, Duke’s Kyle Filipowski was injured after a collision with a fan following Wake Forest’s home upset of the Blue Devils.
“When are we going to ban court storming?” Jon Scheyer lamented in his postgame press conference. “How many times does a player have to get into something where they get punched or they get pushed or they get taunted? … It’s a dangerous thing.”
In reality, the last thing we need is more discourse about court-storming. As with most issues these days, each side of the argument is deeply entrenched in its beliefs, and the conversations often lead nowhere.
But here’s the thing: Everybody’s right!
Court-storming is not bad on its face. It’s a fun way to celebrate a massive victory, and it’s something that everyone does. We’ve been playing college basketball for well over a century, and court-stormings have mostly gone without incident.
Unfortunately, incidents have been on the rise. But that doesn’t mean court-storming needs to be axed completely. Measures can be put in place to make things safer for players and coaches. Many schools have already done so with added security and sectioned-off benches immediately following a game. Those measures need to be mandated nationwide.
See? We can have a conversation that ends in compromise!
Now let’s get into some of the on-court action. I already discussed Wake Forest’s need for a big win and why I am confident in Kentucky last week, so we’ll skip those two stories. Instead, we start with Illinois, which is not playing its best basketball of late.
More Heat Check CBB:
- NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch 2024: What will it take to reach March Madness?
- Bracketology: Heat Check CBB March Madness projections
- Tournament Index: March Madness Projections, Cinderella Predictions
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Illinois’ recent defensive play is a concern
The Illini can make a run to the Final Four when they’re playing at their best. Terrence Shannon Jr. is one of the best players in the country. Marcus Domask is another excellent scorer, and Coleman Hawkins is one of the most versatile players in the country. This group has the depth, size, experience, and top-end talent necessary to beat anyone on any given night.
That said, Illinois has also been inconsistent, and its collective defensive effort simply hasn’t been good enough recently. One of the Big Ten’s better defenses earlier this season, the Illini have experienced a significant defensive dropoff over the past month.
Illinois has allowed at least 80 points in six of the past nine games. Only three opponents — FAU, Purdue and Tennessee — reached that mark during the Illini’s first 18 games.
This squad has never been good at forcing turnovers, but they’re struggling to defend the paint despite their size. Iowa shot 51.0 percent from inside the arc, largely thanks to drives and its perimeter players getting into the lane. Penn State had success in the same area in its upset victory over the Illini on Wednesday. Neither opponent has an incredibly dynamic backcourt, either, which is concerning.
Illinois has more than enough offense to make up for some defensive lapses. The Illini don’t need a Houston-level defense to make the Final Four. They do have to be better, though. The last four games (vs. Minnesota, at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue, at Iowa) will be a good test.
Comparing this FAU team to last year’s squad
Here’s a question we’ve probably all wondered about at some point recently: Why is this FAU team less dominant than last season’s Final Four team?
This is largely the same group that was responsible for that magical March run. With almost everyone back, FAU had high expectations coming into the new season. The Owls were picked to win the American in their league debut, and they were a consensus top-15 team nationally.
After losing at Memphis on Sunday, though, FAU is now 3-3 in its last six games. The Owls would need significant help to win a share of a conference title at this point, despite the AAC looking like a potential one-bid league. The Owls are still on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble — for now — but their struggles have been surprising.
What changed from last season? The offense continues to hum and is putting up slightly more efficient numbers. The defense, on the other hand, has dipped dramatically.
FAU was able to routinely get stops last season and held six of its eight postseason opponents (including the C-USA Tournament) to 70 points or fewer. Kansas State’s 76 points were the most the Owls allowed last March. They are giving up 72.7 points per game currently, though, which ranks outside the top 200 nationally. Last season’s squad had hunger, intensity and urgency in droves. Those traits don’t appear to be there this season.
Could FAU simply flip a switch as the calendar flips to March? That wouldn’t be a shock — but if it was simply a matter of effort, you’d think this group would’ve done it by now. The Owls will have to flip that switch, though, to come close to repeating last season’s success.
Should Ole Miss still be in the bubble conversation?
Ole Miss is sitting right on the bubble, but after Saturday’s 72-59 loss to South Carolina in Oxford, they are on the wrong side of the cutline. However, they’re still very much in the conversation.
But should they be?
The Rebels went undefeated in nonconference play, largely because they didn’t play anyone. Only one game — a win at UCF — currently qualifies in the top two quadrants. Since SEC play began, though, Mississippi has been relatively poor. The team has regressed on both ends of the court while struggling against better competition.
The NCAA Tournament case for Ole Miss centers around its quantity of wins and an 18-point win over Florida on Jan. 10. However, that victory is one of just two wins the Rebels have against teams in our most recent projected field. They’ve had five recent opportunities to add another such win, but they lost all five — four by double digits.
Ole Miss isn’t playing anything like an NCAA Tournament team right now. Wednesday’s tilt with Alabama is the Rebels’ last chance to make a statement in the regular season, and it’s looking more and more likely that they will be NIT-bound.
UNLV’s surge
The Mountain West’s quest for six NCAA Tournament bids is alive and well — our Lukas Harkins projects the league will get all six — but UNLV is pushing to make it a conversation about seven.
Kevin Kruger’s squad knocked off Colorado State in Vegas on Saturday, giving the Runnin’ Rebels their fifth Quad 1 victory of the season. Only 10 teams have more than that. UNLV also has a stellar record away from home, going 6-2 with Quad 1A victories over Boise State and New Mexico.
I wrote about UNLV’s strong turnaround after its victory over the Broncos on Jan. 16. The Rebels then proceeded to drop two straight games to Colorado State and Air Force.
That Air Force loss — a 90-58 loss at home, mind you — is part of why UNLV isn’t currently in the bubble picture. The Rebels sport a dismal 5-3 record in Quad 4 games, and it’s ugly albatross around the neck of their NCAA Tournament hopes.
That said, UNLV can make some noise down the stretch. The Rebels are 7-1 since losing to Air Force, and they have two Q1 games to close the season against San Diego State and Nevada. And remember: these guys beat Creighton by 15 points back in December. They’ll need to pick up some style points along the way, but this could be a team to watch down the stretch.
Pay attention to Samford
Let’s hear it for Samford. Since losing their first two games of the season, the Bulldogs have lost exactly twice. They now sit at 25-4 and already have the SoCon title all wrapped up. Samford had to split the crown with Furman last season, but this year’s group gets it all to themselves.
It’s the first time Samford will be the top seed in the SoCon Tournament since joining the league in 2008.
“What an accomplishment for our guys, for our program and for all of the people associated with the program,” McMillan said after beating ETSU on Saturday. “To win the SoCon this year and be the 1 seed going into the tournament. To be able to go back-to-back and bring home two SoCon championships, the first two Samford has had in back-to-back seasons. I’m so excited for our university and all of the people, not just our players and coaches, but everybody associated with the university and our fans.”
Samford’s success is fun to watch, too. Despite being one of the smallest teams in the country, this team has a top-50 offense thanks to an abundance of 3-point shooting (third nationally in 3P%) and ball movement. Seven different players are shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range, and another seven have assists rates over 10.0 percent.
This group also plays incredibly fast (11th in tempo, per KenPom) and uses elite depth to pressure opponents as much as possible on defense (10th in steal rate).
Samford’s nonconference schedule keeps the Bulldogs out of the at-large conversation, so they will need to win the SoCon Tournament in Asheville. If they do punch their ticket to the Big Dance, however, this will be a very dangerous team that is more than capable of pulling an upset.
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