This Rauf Report makes the case for Iowa State to be ranked No. 1 in the country, discusses what Isaiah Evans’ breakout means, and much more.
This week exemplified what college basketball is all about.
Top teams played each other in true home games, showcasing the sport’s passionate and diverse atmospheres rather than the stale environments of many multi-team events. That dynamic led to a myriad of upsets, reminding everyone that winning on the road is the toughest thing to do in the sport.
The SEC also used this week’s ACC/SEC Challenge to showcase its dominance. It won the challenge 14-2, and those two losses were by teams ranked in the top four in the AP Poll (Auburn, Kentucky) that went on the road. Despite the slip-ups, the Tigers and Wildcats remain two of the country’s best teams. A week and a half ago, I called the SEC the nation’s best conference — usurping the Big 12 in that regard — and this week’s performance only strengthened my resolve. Meanwhile, for what it’s worth, the Big East is also beating the Big 12 in the Big East-Big 12 Battle.
What else notable happened this week? Let’s dive into this Rauf Report with a look at Iowa State, who deserves to be ranked No. 1 in the country for the first time in program history.
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The case for Iowa State as No. 1
There will be a new team atop the AP poll next week after Kansas’ double-digit loss to Creighton this week. Auburn, the team that would’ve been easiest to slide into that spot, also lost to Duke that same Wednesday night. Other top-five contenders Kentucky and Marquette lost this week as well.
Tennessee, the only top-five team that didn’t falter, has a good chance to get that No. 1 spot. However, I strongly believe that top ranking should go to Iowa State, despite the Cyclones having a loss while the Vols are undefeated.
For starters, both teams have two wins over KenPom top 55 squads. Iowa State’s best win was its double-digit victory against Marquette, while Tennessee’s came against a struggling Baylor team. The Cyclones have also played the tougher schedule to this point, with four KenPom top-90 games. They also led by as many as 18 points in its loss to Auburn, a game that easily could have gone the other way.
TJ Otzelberger’s team has traditionally struggled to pair efficient offense with its elite defense. That has not been the case this season, as Iowa State ranks sixth nationally in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. That rise has coincided with Keshon Gilbert’s breakout campaign (17.6 ppg, 5.6 apg). Gilbert just went head-to-head with Marquette’s Kam Jones and outplayed the National Player of the Year candidate, too.
The Cyclones have proven more than Tennessee has, while demonstrating elite play on both ends of the court and emerging as the Big 12 favorite — even ahead of Kansas. Put ISU at No. 1 in the polls.
What to make of Isaiah Evans’ breakout game
Duke’s win over Auburn wouldn’t have happened if it wasn’t for Isaiah Evans’ performance off the bench. The No. 15 incoming freshman in the country, per On3, Evans had been used sparingly by the Blue Devils and received three DNPs against Kentucky, Arizona and Kansas.
But, in need of an offensive spark following a slow start, Jon Scheyer put Evans into the game. The result: Six 3-pointers in the first half.
“It’s a great lesson for young players,” Scheyer told reporters postgame. “It’s the combination of being pissed [because] he wants to play, and I want guys to be pissed and have that edge about them, and having the humility to just attack every single day. And then there’s the … amazing courage in this game to come in and do what he did. I don’t know if I’ve been a part of something like that in my years.”
So why had Evans not been heavily featured in the rotation prior to this game? Inconsistency, particularly on defense, plagued Evans in high school and put him at the back end of Duke’s rotation. His defensive box plus/minus is still -0.2 even after the Auburn game, and his overall impact is not where Duke’s coaching staff would like it to be.
Per EvanMiya.com, Evans’ impact is below the 50th percentile nationally in a number of categories.
For his part, Evans seems to understand.
“I came [to Duke] for a difficult time,” Evans told Field of 68’s Jeff Goodman after the game. “I came here to put myself in an uncomfortable position. I’m going to always stay ready.”
After the Auburn game, Evans has earned himself much more playing time — just don’t be surprised if there are still some freshman growing pains.
Ian Schieffelin deserves more national respect
Sticking in the ACC, Clemson was responsible for the conference’s other victory in the ACC/SEC Challenge. The Tigers’ 70-66 victory over Kentucky served as a statement win for Brad Brownell’s squad, which is coming off an Elite Eight appearance. It also served as a spotlight game for Ian Schieffelin.
The 6-8, 240-pounder had 11 points on just 4-of-20 shooting, yet he was the most impactful player on the court with 20 rebounds and four assists. The performance highlighted Schieffelin’s unique skill set.
One of the nation’s very best rebounders despite a lack of elite size or athleticism, Schieffelin leads Clemson in assist rate and is the team’s best defender. EvanMiya’s skill chart for Schieffelin shows that his game really has no glaring holes:
Schieffelin showed flashes of being able to produce in a bigger role in the NCAA Tournament, as he averaged 14.8 points and 9.0 rebounds during Clemson’s run. While he has taken on more of an offensive burden this year, his rebounding (12.6 rpg) and playmaking (3.7 apg) have been the driving forces of the Tigers’ success.
Breaking down Xavier’s struggles
A popular sleeper pick entering the season, Xavier has struggled to meet its expectations through the first month. Yes, the Musketeers are 7-2, but even Sean Miller will tell you that his team is not playing good basketball right now.
Xavier has lost two of its last three games after falling to TCU on Thursday, and the lone victory during this stretch was a three-point win over South Carolina State. It was not the first time the Musketeers have struggled with a lesser opponent, either. Texas Southern had a lead in the second half against Xavier, and IU Indy trailed by just five at halftime.
What is causing this sluggish start? There have been two main culprits thus far: Defending the three and finishing around the rim.
The Musketeers rank 324th nationally in 3-point defense, routinely leaving shooters open following slow rotations. Three opponents made at least 10 shots from beyond the arc against Xavier this season, with Michigan and TCU combining to shoot 17-of-40 (.425) while handing XU its only losses thus far.
On the offensive end, Xavier has been solid from outside but can’t make anything at the rim. The team is shooting 57.9 percent on close 2s, per Bart Torvik, which is below average nationally. The backcourt, in particular, has had a hard time finishing among the trees (304th in blocked attempts).
All of that leads to a pretty damning stat: In three games against teams in Torvik’s top 100, Xavier ranks 156th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 92nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their overall rating on the year is 112th in the country, right behind North Florida.
There’s talent on this Musketeers team, but they need to elevate their level of play to hit their ceiling.
What to make of McNeese’s start
One of the offseason’s biggest mid-major darlings has stumbled out of the gates. Tuesday’s loss to Santa Clara dropped McNeese to 4-4 — already matching last season’s loss total. Part of that is because Will Wade’s squad has played Alabama and a slew of other top programs from non-power conferences, resulting in a 1-4 mark against the KenPom top 150.
The Cowboys are still solid on paper, sitting at No. 94 at KenPom, No. 84 at EvanMiya and No. 75 in Torvik. However, their expected rise has turned into a clear step backward on both ends of the court.
McNeese has not had a true star step up yet, and the overall guard play has been poor. The Cowboys are turning the ball over at a much higher rate and have struggled from 3-point range; both were key drivers for success in 2023-24. Additionally, the guards are getting beat on defense by not forcing turnovers and allowing a lot of open 3s. Put it all together, and McNeese looks rather exploitable.
The Cowboys have clearly missed the play of Shahada Wells. Last season’s Southland POY was a phenomenal scorer who did a bit of everything (fourth nationally in steal rate, 64th in assist rate). It has become clear that Wells didn’t get enough respect for just how important he was.
In his place, transfers like Sincere Parker (Saint Louis), Quadir Copeland (Syracuse) and Brandon Murray (Ole Miss) had high expectations placed upon them for similar high-level impacts. Unfortunately for Wade, all three have struggled, particularly from an efficiency standpoint.
McNeese should still be the heavy favorite in the Southland, but the Cowboys’ rocky start means they no longer hold a spot as one of the nation’s premier mid-majors.