The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the NCAA basketball weekend, including a look at mid-majors with potential at-large cases.
This past weekend in college basketball was the first one filled with buzzer-beaters and incredibly close games. The noon window on Saturday, for example, was absolutely loaded with entertainment.
Creighton went on the road and knocked off Seton Hall in three overtimes. Quadir Copeland hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer to push Syracuse past Miami, which was shortly followed by Tyrese Hunter’s game-winning layup for Texas against Baylor.
There was plenty more that happened throughout Saturday — Furman and Radford won on clutch shots late, too, among others. But as we approach the stretch run of the season, what happened for Kentucky is of the utmost importance.
It was revealed early Saturday that 7-2 big man Zvonimir Ivisic would play for the Wildcats following a three-month eligibility battle. The Croatian delivered in a big way, putting up 13 points, five rebounds, two assists, three blocks and two steals in just 16 minutes in Kentucky’s victory over Georgia.
It was a dazzling debut for a team that was already playing at a high level. So, what does his presence mean for John Calipari’s squad moving forward? That’s where we’ll start this Rauf Report.
What Big Z’s addition means for Kentucky
No one really knew what to expect from ‘Big Z’ in his debut. While he was a highly regarded international prospect, there were varying opinions about how ready he was to play at this level. And then there’s the fact that he hadn’t played at all this season previously, so there would likely have to be so time for him to get up to speed.
Nope.
“It was ridiculous. And I know some of it was Z made a shot and everybody was standing and dancing and all of that. But so what?” Calipari told reporters postgame, before adding some areas where Ivisic can improve. “He got pushed around. There are things that he is doing in practice the same way that we have got to work on. But he rebounded.”
The takeaway from Ivisic’s performance isn’t that he’ll be an all-star or that he’s now Kentucky’s best player or anything like that. It’s highly unlikely that Big Z will continue to make 3-pointers at a Reed Sheppard-like clip or that the Wildcats will run their offense through him. This team has been an offensive juggernaut anyway, but it is clear that Ivisic only makes them stronger in that area.
He proved he could be effective playing at the fast pace Kentucky wants to play at, a rarity for someone his size. Ivisic also demonstrated slick passing ability and vision, showing some early potential as a secondary playmaker that will allow the Wildcats to run more high post action. And of course, it helps immensely when you have a big man who is a threat from distance. The spacing Ivisic will provide — and the stress that will put on opposing defenses — will be incredibly impactful.
Yet, Ivisic’s biggest impact comes on the defensive end. Kentucky has simply been overpowering opponents with its offensive firepower, which only got stronger with the addition of Big Z. Still, the Wildcats have been somewhat vulnerable due to a mediocre defense. They rank outside the top 70 in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC.
We only have a 16-minute sample size, but Ivisic was impressive on the defensive end. He protected the rim at an elite level, while showing quick hands and the ability to stay in front of opponents on the perimeter. He also rebounded at a high clip for the Cats.
Ivisic’s offensive showing was the story Saturday night, and rightfully so. That said, his defensive impact is what could dictate Kentucky’s ability to make a long NCAA Tournament run.
South Carolina’s showcase
Kentucky’s next game comes on Tuesday against a South Carolina team looking to put a firm stamp on its NCAA Tournament resume.
Lamont Paris’ squad has been one of the biggest surprises in the country. The Gamecocks were picked to finish last in the SEC, but after a 77-64 drubbing of Arkansas at Bud Walton Arena, they now boast a 15-3 overall record and a 3-2 mark in conference play.
South Carolina has gotten to this point on the back of some tremendous team play and a firm identity.
Paris spaces the floor with four (sometimes five) capable 3-point shooters on the court. The team passes extremely well (top 50 nationally in assist rate) while holding its own defensively by running opponents off the perimeter and defending the interior well. Meechie Johnson has stepped up to deliver an All-SEC performance. Meanwhile, transfers Myles Stute (Vanderbilt), BJ Mack (Wofford) and Ta’Lon Cooper (Minnesota) have proved to be vital pieces in shaping the team identity.
The Gamecocks are currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament field, according to Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins. However, they are still on the bubble due to a lack of elite wins. South Carolina is just 1-2 in Quad 1 games, and 0-2 against Quad 1A foes. After taking a Q3 loss to Georgia last week, South Carolina needs an offsetting win that can headline its resume.
Tuesday provides the perfect chance for that win. The Gamecocks have won three of the last six meetings against Kentucky going back to the 2017-18 season, including a 2-1 mark at home during that stretch. The rest of their SEC schedule is manageable, but aside from the Kentucky game, there is only one more Quad 1 opportunity at Colonial Life Arena this season (March 6 vs. Tennessee).
If South Carolina wants to make a statement and solidify its NCAA Tournament position, now is the time.
American race will be wild
Coming into the season, Florida Atlantic and Memphis were projected to do battle at the top of a revamped American conference. After all, they are clearly the two best teams on paper and have the most experience in the fold.
The calculus changed, however, after FAU struggled early while Memphis surged into the AP top 10, and it appeared this conference was the Tigers’ to lose. Then, Memphis suffered a pair of surprising upsets this past week against South Florida and Tulane, throwing the AAC standings into utter chaos.
As it stands, there are seven teams within a game of first place and six teams with only one loss in league play. Florida Atlantic sits atop the conference with a 5-1 mark, yet its current four-game win streak hasn’t exactly been inspiring. Thanks to some disastrous defensive performances, the Owls beat Tulane by a single point and needed overtime to get past UTSA.
The Owls’ defense cost FAU at Charlotte, which is tied with the Owls for first in the league. The 49ers were not good in nonconference play, but they have found their footing and are playing high-level, balanced basketball. North Texas, South Florida and UAB have also been surprise entries into this jumble at the top alongside SMU.
FAU and Memphis should still finish as the top two in this league given their talent levels. However, inconsistent play and head-scratching losses have turned the top of the AAC into a logjam.
Many conference races don’t heat up until the end of February, but the American is worth paying attention to now. This cluster of teams will be battling it out to determine which ones have staying power and which will slide back to the middle of the league.
Drexel is the CAA team to monitor
Speaking of intriguing conference races, the CAA got a national spotlight on Saturday when UNC Wilmington hosted Charleston in a rematch of last season’s conference championship. The Seahawks emerged victorious in front of a raucous home crowd thanks to some key buckets late.
That victory pulls UNCW into a tie with Charleston for second in CAA play — but both are a full two and a half games behind conference-leading Drexel, which already beat the Seahawks by 15 earlier this year.
Charleston and UNCW have more national cachet given Charleston’s run last season and UNCW’s victory over Kentucky this past December. However, Drexel is the team that deserves the national spotlight.
Zach Spiker’s squad is a perfect 7-0 in CAA play behind an abundance of depth and experience. The Dragons also earned their own notable December win over Villanova at the Wells Fargo Center. Currently, Drexel is one of just two teams in the country with a two-game conference lead (or better), joining North Carolina in the ACC. With only one matchup left against both UNCW and Charleston, the Dragons have the inside track at the conference’s regular-season crown.
True mid-majors with at-large cases
This is the time of year when bracketology becomes a focal point of the conversation. With leagues like the ACC, Pac-12 and A-10 struggling, there are likely to be more at-large bids available to the one-bid leagues. Here are six true mid-major programs that have a legitimate case right now:
Missouri Valley duo
Indiana State may have the strongest case of any mid-major. The Sycamores boast fantastic metrics (No. 28 in NET, No. 42 in KenPom) and have a Quad 1 win (at Bradley). Meanwhile, they only have three losses, all of which came on the road to top-50 teams (Alabama, Michigan State, Drake).
Even though Drake knocked off the Sycamores, the Bulldogs are behind them in the at-large conversation because of their team sheet — but it’s still a strong resume. Drake sits at No. 44 in the NET and No. 48 in KenPom, with three more chances to pick up significant wins (at Indiana State, home/away vs. Bradley).
Too many wins to ignore
Looking outside the MVC, Princeton finds itself at No. 31 in the NET with a 15-1 record. The Tigers don’t have a Quad 1 win — they haven’t even played a Q1 game yet — but are 4-1 in Q2 games. And with such a lofty record, Princeton can likely endure another loss or two and still be in the at-large conversation.
The 2012-13 Middle Tennessee team that made the First Four is the case study here. That Blue Raiders team lacked quality wins, going just 1-3 in games against the top two quadrants. Still, that team was 28-5 entering Selection Sunday. It’s simply hard to leave out a team with that many victories.
Grand Canyon is hoping to get in via this route, too. The Lopes took a tough loss to Seattle on Saturday, but they’re still 17-2 with an elite win (San Diego State) and a few more quality ones (San Francisco, Louisiana Tech, Liberty). GCU is also the heavy favorite to win the remainder of the games on its schedule. With a top-50 NET ranking and No. 61 KenPom ranking, the team sheet could be good enough if the Lopes get to 28 or more wins.
The same goes for James Madison. The Dukes were the toast of college basketball during the opening weeks of the season, starting 14-0 before suffering their first loss. Their defeat to Southern Miss certainly hurts the resume, but that early road win over Michigan State should offset that. As long as JMU doesn’t suffer more disastrous losses down the stretch, this group may be in a good spot despite so-so metrics. A showdown with Appalachian State on Saturday is the biggest game left on its regular-season schedule.
Opportunities Ahead
San Francisco is the last team I’ll include in this mix. The Dons don’t meet the threshold right now, but they have ample opportunities ahead with two games against Gonzaga and a road trip to Saint Mary’s on deck. They are No. 54 in the NET and No. 63 in KenPom, but currently just 0-4 in Q1 games. To get into the mix, San Francisco will need to pick up a pair of quality wins while avoiding any bad losses. Thankfully, the opportunity to do so is standing right in front of them.