The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the week of NCAA Basketball, headlined by a look at the offenses of Duke and UNC.
It’s hard to believe that we’re nearly a month into the NCAA Basketball season already! With Feast Week now behind us and the college football regular season nearly done, the basketball season is finding its rhythm and stepping more into the spotlight.
Many of the teams that participated in Feast Week’s biggest events, however, dealt with a bit of a hangover this week. Kansas struggled mightily to get past Eastern Illinois while Villanova was upset by Saint Joseph’s and Tennessee completely sleepwalked through the first half of its loss to North Carolina.
That performance from Tennessee was one of the major talking points to come out of the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge this week, where the conferences finished tied, 7-7. There isn’t much to take away from that game for the Vols, who entered the game with the nation’s top defense only to allow the Tar Heels to score 61 points in the first half.
“I didn’t recognize the first half,” Rick Barnes said postgame. “It was just our mindset to start the game. I’m still baffled by it, to be honest. I’m serious, I don’t think I’ve had a team look like that in nine years.”
I have no doubts about Tennessee’s ability to regain its footing on the defensive end. This was likely just a 20-minute blip, especially since the Vols went back to playing defense like we expect in the second half. However, we did learn something about the Tar Heels, which is where we will start this Rauf Report.
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Keys to unlocking UNC’s offense
North Carolina has had two distinct offenses in Hubert Davis’ short tenure as head coach. For the first half of 2021-22 and all of 2022-23, the Heels played at a relatively average tempo offensively and struggled offensively against good teams because of it. Then there’s the team that made it all the way to the 2022 national title game behind an up-tempo offense that spaced the floor with four shooters around Armando Bacot.
This season’s UNC squad is equipped to play a similar fast-paced style and it’s had incredible success so far.
The win over Tennessee served as the perfect showcase. The Tar Heels turned the game into a proverbial track meet in the first half, pushing the pace at every turn, getting out in transition and moving the ball with incredible quickness and purpose. They had Tennessee’s elite defense in shambles as a result of what was a dazzling display of effectiveness.
This is the kind of thing that Davis envisioned when he overhauled his roster via the transfer portal this offseason.
“We wanted our pace to be faster,” he told reporters after the Tennessee victory. “We want to be a running team. Even after made baskets, just getting out and running as fast as we can. I want to be the fastest team from free throw line to free throw line.”
UNC’s four-out system allows it to play that way since there are four ballhandlers on the court. It also keeps four shooters out there, creating more space for driving lanes and more area for defenses to cover. The Heels are now up to 37th nationally in offensive tempo and are top-50 in 3-point shooting, both major factors in what is now a top-5 offense in the country.
The biggest factor in effectively playing at that tempo without turning the ball over is having a good point guard. North Carolina certainly has one in freshman Elliot Cadeau. The former five-star prospect is one of the best passers in the country already and has routinely demonstrated elite vision and feel for the game. He controlled everything against the Vols in a clinic on how to run a team.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that UNC’s best results have corresponded with Cadeau finding his footing at this level. He struggled in his first three games, posting eight assists and eight turnovers combined. However, in his last four games, he has recorded 21 assists and a single turnover — including two starts against Arkansas and Tennessee, two of the nation’s best defenses.
North Carolina needs to play fast to be its best, and it needs Cadeau playing a high level to play fast efficiently. Those two factors will determine UNC’s ceiling.
Michigan State’s offense may not be completely fixable
Michigan State is starting to play better after its slow start, posting blowout wins over Butler, Alcorn State and Georgia Southern to go along with a narrow defeat to Arizona since losing to Duke in the Champions Classic.
There’s still a lot the Spartans have to figure out, especially from a rotation standpoint, and the offense continues to be one of the worst they’ve had under Tom Izzo. An early shooting slump is the main culprit — Michigan State went from being the nation’s third-best 3-point shooting team last season to 329th this season — but I have concerns that things won’t get much better.
Yes, more of the open shots the Spartans are currently getting will start to fall. Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins, in particular, are too good of shooters to stay as cold as they have been. But this offense is also suffering from a serious lack of spacing.
Simply put, the Spartans miss Joey Hauser. He provided elite spacing as a stretch big much like Brady Manek did for UNC during its 2022 NCAA Tournament run. When Manek left the Tar Heels, they went from ranking 60th in 3-point shooting to 322nd, per KenPom. The Spartans are experiencing a very similar dip.
While we expect Walker and Akins to return to form, Tre Holloman is the only other guy on the roster who can be considered a consistent threat from deep. Malik Hall and AJ Hoggard certainly have the ability to make threes, but not at a clip that will make opposing defenses adjust.
That’s what Michigan State is missing more than just shots — players a defense has to respect and change to accommodate. Again, open shots will start falling at a higher clip sooner rather than later, but scoring may be a laborious effort for the Spartans all season.
Duke’s offense has serious issues
Duke is another team facing its own set of challenges on the offensive end, and these are also unforeseen. A consensus top-3 team in the preseason polls, the Blue Devils have struggled to find offense for extended stretches throughout games. Duke’s offense was seen as a major positive — not negative — coming into the season given the stars it had returning, a potential breakout from Tyrese Proctor and a talented freshman class.
A lot of those things we just assumed would happen simply have not.
Proctor has regressed, if anything. He is shooting 30.3 percent from the floor against power conference competition, including a measly 17.6 percent from 3-point range. That would not be as big of an issue if either of Duke’s freshman guards — Jared McCain and Caleb Foster — were producing the way their recruiting profile suggests they would, yet they are not. Outside of a strong second half from Foster against Michigan State, that duo has been virtually non-existent in those three games (Arizona, Michigan State, Arkansas).
Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach are playing their roles in the offense incredibly well but there haven’t been reliable scoring options besides them. Eric Musselman even pointed this out following Arkansas’ win over the Blue Devils.
“We weren’t going to guard [Mark] Mitchell,” Musselman said postgame. “They had to take out one of their best offensive rebounders.”
Therein lies the issue. The other guys in the rotation — Mitchell, Ryan Young, Jaylen Blakes and Sean Stewart — are not players that opposing defenses have to worry about. So, when Proctor/McCain/Foster aren’t threats, the Blue Devils have nowhere else to turn. That’s why freshman TJ Power saw extended minutes against Arkansas — his first extended action in a non-blowout situation. He can score, though he struggles defensively right now.
Duke’s roster was built in a way that put its offense in a delicate balance. It was designed to have two go-to guys (Filipowski, Proctor), three secondary options (Roach, McCain, Foster) and role players. McCain and Foster don’t look ready to make an impact quite yet, so with Proctor struggling, it has been tough for them to find consistent offense. This will continue until Proctor gets out of his funk and, even then, the Blue Devils will have limited options.
Joe Girard’s impact on Clemson
Things are certainly better for Clemson, which is currently sitting at 6-0 after an impressive victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. It was a win that stamped the Tigers’ start as legitimate and signaled this group may be a factor on the national stage.
Those on the national stage will be introduced to star forward PJ Hall, who has been one of the best players in the ACC for a few years now. Guard Chase Hunter has been excellent, too, and is providing a real steadying hand in his fifth season.
But both of those guys have been around. Joe Girard III hasn’t, and the Syracuse transfer’s offensive acumen has added a needed dimension that has taken Clemson from the NCAA Tournament bubble to a top-25 caliber team.
He started 123 games over four seasons for the Orange and was impactful in nearly all of them. He’s coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high 16.4 points per game and has been a dynamic shooting threat throughout that career. However, he wasn’t always the most efficient given the scoring burden he was forced to carry, and his defensive limitations were often lamented.
Clemson has gotten the most out of his skills through six games, and he has given the Tigers some of the best basketball of his career. All of his shooting numbers and his offensive rating are the highest of his career, and his turnover rate has been nearly cut in half. On the flip side, he has provided more spacing to Clemson’s offense and given it the kind of perimeter threat it has lacked in recent years under Brad Brownell. The result — so far — is Brownell’s best shooting and most efficient offensive team since he took the job in 2010.
That offense looked unstoppable against the Crimson Tide, and Girard’s 16 points played a huge part.
This isn’t to say that Girard is Clemson’s best or most important player — that’s still Hall. But Hall is now playing alongside a sniper opposing defenses have to worry about, putting less pressure on him while Girard is thriving without having to be the No. 1 option. Those two, along with Hunter, form a trio that’s one of the best in the country, and one that’s turning Clemson into a real threat in the ACC.
Butler looks like a surprise NCAA Tournament team
Year 1 of Thad Matta’s second stint at Butler did not go well a season ago as the Bulldogs won just 14 games and finished in ninth in the Big East. An overhauled roster didn’t do much to heighten expectations going into this season, yet the week the Bulldogs just capped could change things.
Butler is on a three-game win streak that has left Penn State, Boise State and Texas Tech in its wake, all of which the Bulldogs won by at least eight points. It was the kind of statement this group needed to build momentum, and now they even have a solid-looking resume!
Sitting at 6-2, Butler’s only losses have come to Michigan State on the road and a narrow five-point defeat to FAU, which has looked like world-beaters ever since. Those are reasonable blemishes that certainly don’t hurt this group. If anything, the close game against FAU helps their case.
Northeastern transfer Jahmyl Telfort has been a revelation with his scoring, passing and versatility as a 6-7 wing, serving as a perfect fit for this system. St. John’s transfer Posh Alexander has thrived after making the move to Indianapolis, too, with his playmaking and tough-nosed defense bringing a new attitude to this group.
However, the most impactful newcomer might be Michigan State transfer Pierre Brooks. The 6-6, 240-pounder has scored in double figures in all eight games, averaging 23.0 points during this win streak.
Butler has already proven it’s a much-improved team, and those newcomers are the main reasons why. It shouldn’t be near the basement of the conference, but rather in the middle. The top four teams in the Big East are pretty much set (UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Villanova), but Butler looks like it can win the race to finish fifth — right behind that elite tier.