The Rauf Report breaks down another week of NCAA Basketball action, headlined by two players on opposite trajectories and three impressive teams.
The college basketball season doesn’t go dormant around Christmas time like it did in the old days. Thank the expanded conference schedules — with specific shouts to the Big East, which we’ll get to in a minute. Nevertheless, this week was still a generally slow time.
We’re in that weird middle ground of the year. The fall semester is over, and many schools opt for cupcake opponents as players prepare to celebrate the holidays with their families. The schedule won’t ramp back up until somewhere around New Year’s.
However, we did get a few headliner games and the kind of unexpected results that typically come from conference play. The top three teams in the Big East all lost their conference openers. UConn and Marquette were both blown out, with some performances raising questions.
However, after the Tar Heels handed No. 7 Oklahoma its first loss of the season, we start this Rauf Report with a look at North Carolina’s potential All-American.
RJ Davis is playing like an All-American
UNC was all business in its win over the Sooners, which has not always been the case under Hubert Davis. The Tar Heels came out and steadily played to a standard. They asserted themselves defensively and ran the kind of up-tempo offense that makes them successful.
Considering how last year went in Chapel Hill, everyone associated with North Carolina is playing under a microscope this season. Much of the focus has centered on freshman guard Elliot Cadeau or transfers such as Harrison Ingram and Cormac Ryan. Even Armando Bacot has found some criticism and praise, largely because he has been the face of this program for the better part of five years.
But RJ Davis is flying a bit under the radar. The senior is widely accepted as a very good player, but he’s not getting enough attention for just how well he is playing.
Davis currently leads the ACC in scoring (21.7 ppg) and is ranked in the top 10 nationally. He also leads the ACC in shot attempts, which is a good thing for the Tar Heels. Davis has increased his efficiency greatly, helping him go from a very good player to a legitimate superstar.
Playing next to Cadeau in the backcourt has likely helped Davis maximize his talents. Former running mate Caleb Love is having a career year in Tucson, but Cadeau fits Davis better as a pass-first point guard with excellent vision who loves pushing the pace. Davis is the unquestioned top option on the perimeter, and the team is playing at a tempo best suited to his skill set.
There aren’t many truly elite guards across the country, but UNC has a surefire superstar in Davis.
Oso Ighodaro’s regression
Marquette big man Oso Ighodaro showed off similar star power early this season. It looked like he was on his way to a breakout campaign, giving the team a legitimate interior star next to Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones.
Ighodaro was arguably the best player not named Zach Edey at the Maui Invitational. There, he went toe-to-toe against a preseason first-team All-Pac-12 performer (Adem Bona) and two of the frontrunners for National Player of the Year (Edey, Hunter Dickinson).
Since then, however, Ighodaro’s play has dipped — and so has Marquette’s success. The Golden Eagles handled business in their first six games, posting a pair of wins over top-20 teams in KenPom (Kansas, Illinois) and pushing Purdue to the brink. Over the last six games, Marquette has suffered two double-digit losses to unranked teams (Wisconsin, Providence).
During the slide, Ighodaro’s offensive production and efficiency have dipped. He has also become much less of a factor on the defensive end.
Marquette’s relative struggles don’t fall solely on Ighodaro. Other role players need to step up, too. Meanwhile, both losses came away from home and the team’s shooting has suffered. Ighodaro has shown he can step up and dominate alongside Kolek and Jones, but he needs to get back to that level if the Golden Eagles are going to meet expectations.
Seton Hall’s defense
Let’s stick in the Big East with Seton Hall. The Pirates picked up one of the biggest wins of the season by knocking off UConn on Wednesday. It was a necessary performance, too, because the squad had not been playing up to Shaheen Holloway’s standard on defense.
In five of his six seasons as a Division I head coach, Holloway’s teams have finished in the top 85 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. That includes each of the past four seasons. His Elite Eight team at Saint Peter’s ranked in the top 30, and last year’s Seton Hall team was a top-20 unit. Holloway’s teams play good defense.
Well, not this team — at least not at first. The Pirates ranked 180th in defensive efficiency (103.6 DRtg), per Torvik, during its 7-4 start. However, in the win over UConn, Seton Hall put in its second-best performance of the season on that end (89.5 DRtg).
What changed? Effort and intensity.
It feels like a cop-out, but it’s true! The Pirates rebounded the ball better than they had all season, and they put immense pressure on UConn’s perimeter players. That pressure forced the Huskies into a good deal of turnovers and a poor shooting night. The rotations were tight, and the Pirates moved quickly around the floor:
If Seton Hall is going to get back to the NCAA Tournament, or at least finish in the top half of the Big East, its defense will lead the way. There are not enough individual offensive weapons or quality shooters to win games strictly by scoring. The Pirates have to make strides on the defensive end, and Wednesday’s victory was a big step in the right direction.
How high of a seed can Memphis get?
In one of the first Rauf Report columns of the season, I predicted this Memphis team could be very good after its comeback victory over Missouri. While that win has lost some luster over time, the Tigers impressed with their play defensively and the versatility of their offensive attack.
Fast forward a few weeks, and Penny Hardaway’s squad already has one of the most impressive resumes in the country. The Tigers are 7-2 in games against Quadrants 1 and 2, with consecutive victories over top-40 KenPom teams in Texas A&M, Clemson and Virginia.
It’s the byproduct of playing the country’s 10th-toughest nonconference schedule, per KenPom. The Tigers are now 9-2 overall and have a legitimate case to be ranked in the top 10 in the next AP poll. With two nonconference games left against Vanderbilt and Austin Peay, the bulk of Memphis’ tough games are already behind it.
Of the 20 games remaining on Memphis’ schedule, only five are against teams that currently rank in the KenPom top 100 (two apiece against Florida Atlantic and SMU, plus a road trip to North Texas). The Tigers are currently projected to win all of those games except the regular-season finale at FAU.
If the team holds form, Memphis would be 28-3 going into the AAC tournament with a handful of Quad 1 wins. Even if you pencil in two random losses along the way, a 26-5 record would certainly be enough to put the Tigers in contention for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Houston played similar schedules each of the last two seasons. The AAC was stronger then, as Cincinnati was still in the league, but the Cougars earned a No. 2 seed in 2022 after going 26-5 in the regular season, and again last year after going 29-2. If Memphis maintains this level of play, the Tigers could end up with a very high seed.
Youngstown State is a mid-major to monitor
Let’s go into the holiday on a deep cut! After all, this is the time of year for Penguins, right?
Jerrod Calhoun and his coaching staff are quietly turning Youngstown State into a premier program in the Horizon League. The Penguins won their first-ever conference title last season behind an elite offense. After retooling its roster via the transfer portal, YSU is more balanced and perhaps more dangerous this year.
The Penguins are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an 0-2 start, with the only loss coming to Dayton on the road by eight. This run has featured a significantly increased role for Tennessee Tech transfer Brett Thompson. The fifth-year guard is averaging 13.0 points in eight games since entering the starting lineup.
Thompson has given the Penguins another high-level scoring option to pair with Brandon Rush, the team’s leading scorer who put up 23 points in Thursday’s victory over Navy.
While those two lead the backcourt, the frontcourt runs through versatile big men DJ Burns and Ziggy Reid. Both players can dominate the glass, make plays out of the post and shoot the 3, giving YSU an offense that is very tough to stop.
Youngstown State currently has the highest KenPom rating in the Horizon (135). Meanwhile, its NET ranking (102) rivals the likes of Kansas State (94), Arkansas (96) and Indiana (115). The Penguins are a legitimately good team — and they might just wreak havoc on your bracket come March.
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