The Rauf Report breaks down the top takeaways from the week of NCAA Basketball, headlined by a look at two of the Big Ten’s best players.
It was a slower week in the college basketball calendar with final exams starting around the country. Players, coaches and fans alike all had a moment to catch their breath after the flurry of Feast Week.
But it’s also the time the first NET rankings are released and, oh man, that’s always fun!
The NET has generally been a good sorting tool and sorting measure at the end of the regular season since being introduced by the NCAA prior to the 2018-19 season. But its formula often takes us on a wild ride to get there. In 2020, the NCAA removed margin of victory as a direct component in the NET formula. However, efficiency metrics are still a major part of the equation — which is why we occasionally see teams fall a few spots after a solid win while another team makes a significant jump after blowing out one of the worst teams in the country.
It’s important to remember that there simply aren’t a lot of data points for the NET to go off of right now. That means there’s going to be a good deal of volatility. The rankings will look much more stable (and sane) a month from now. They’ll generally get better all the way up to Selection Sunday — which is just over three months away, for the record.
Illinois picked up one of the biggest wins of the week, knocking off Florida Atlantic in the Jimmy V Classic. That victory validated the Illini’s hot start, but it also served as a national spotlight for Terrence Shannon Jr. That is where we start this Rauf Report.
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Terrence Shannon taking his game — and Illinois — to another level
During his three seasons at Texas Tech, Shannon had a reputation for being one of the nation’s better players. Yet, his stint in Lubbock didn’t always translate into elite on-court production, nor an abundance of wins. He had sky-high expectations placed on him when he transferred to Illinois last offseason and responded, earning first-team All-Big Ten honors.
Apparently, he wasn’t done improving. Through the first eight games of this season, Shannon is playing like an All-American and National Player of the Year contender, giving the Illini a legitimate go-to guy they can rely on.
The 6-6, 210-pounder hasn’t changed his game. He still loves to attack downhill, especially going left. He’s also crafty enough with the ball in his hands to create his own shot whenever he wants. Instead, this season’s jump is a reflection of a major increase in Shannon’s efficiency. Just look at how much better his numbers are across the board despite having a slightly lower usage rate.
The end result has been beautiful to watch, and it’s lifting Illinois to a place among the nation’s best teams. It remains to be seen just how high the Illini can climb in the pecking order. (Saturday’s game at Tennessee will tell us even more there.) Regardless, Shannon’s level of play has been the biggest reason why this group is in that conversation for the first time in three years.
Steven Crowl is Wisconsin’s X-factor
Let’s stick in the Big Ten and look over at Wisconsin, which has been on a tear recently. The Badgers looked lost coming out of the season’s proverbial gates, suffering double-digit losses to Tennessee and Providence in the first eight games of the season.
Instead of the season going downhill, however, it has gone the complete opposite direction. Greg Gard’s squad enters Saturday’s game at No. 1 Arizona on a six-game win streak that includes victories over Virginia, Marquette and Michigan State. What changed?
Wisconsin started playing its brand of defense again and controlled all those games on the class. It also got solid performances out of Steven Crowl, the 7-footer who has proven he can be a good secondary scoring option. Crowl has scored at least 13 points in five of those six games, all while shooting a high percentage from the floor and grabbing just under nine rebounds per game. In those two losses to the Vols and Friars, he was inefficient and averaged just 9.0 points.
This dynamic has been a trend going back to the start of last season: When Crowl produces and does so efficiently, Wisconsin generally wins! When he doesn’t, they often lose.
There are certainly other reasons for those wins and losses — it doesn’t all fall on Crowl, of course. But there’s no denying that the 7-footer’s versatility can create mismatches and swing games in Wisconsin’s favor when he’s playing at a high level.
The Badgers need him to continue to play well moving forward to compete with Purdue and Illinois at the top of the Big Ten. If he doesn’t, Wisconsin likely won’t reach those heights this year.
Opportunity awaits Cincinnati
The Bearcats have had a relatively quiet 7-0 start to the season, and they enter the weekend as one of the nation’s final 13 unbeatens. However, Cincinnati hasn’t played a KenPom top-100 team yet. They’re handling business against lesser opponents, but we stull don’t know how good Cincinnati really is.
Wes Miller’s squad will get its first test on Saturday in the Crosstown Shootout. Sure, Xavier has struggled recently in losses to Oakland and Delaware, but this is still a step up in competition (and intensity). Cincinnati gets the same kind of test next weekend, too, when it faces Dayton.
This is where opportunity awaits the Bearcats. Beating both Xavier and Dayton would put them at 10-0 and further cement that Cincinnati is a legitimately good team. Both games are very winnable, too, with both the Musketeers and Flyers showing warts during the season’s first month. The rest of the nonconference schedule should be a relative breeze, too.
Put together, Cincinnati has a very good chance of being 13-0 going into its first ever Big 12 conference game, a Jan. 6 showdown against the NET’s top-ranked team, BYU, in Provo. The Bearcats can help make that into a monumental game and bolstering their national profile along the way. All they have to do is handle business this week and next.
Keep in mind: Cincinnati beat Georgia Tech by 35 points before Thanksgiving. Since then, all the Yellow Jackets have done is upset Mississippi State and Duke.
Pay attention to this Bearcats team. There’s a chance they could be really good, and this weekend is our first chance at finding out.
Grand Canyon is legitimately good
Speaking of being really good teams, Grand Canyon claimed a convincing and impressive win over San Diego State on Tuesday night.
That game served as a stage for this program and school as a whole. In front of the ESPNU audience, GCU had a heavy showcase of the Havocs, the school’s student section. There were plenty of pieces done about the facilities and fan support. Yet the biggest statement the Lopes made was on the court, where they handled the reigning national runners-up to earn the program’s first-ever win over a ranked team.
Ray Harrison, Collin Moore and Tyon Grant-Foster all scored at least 15 points, dominating the game on both ends. That backcourt trio was bigger, more physical and more athletic than the Aztecs’ bunch. It’s the kind of advantage GCU holds over many high-major teams, too — especially once Jovan Blacksher heals up.
On the inside, Gabe McGlothan went for 15 points and 13 rebounds as he out-toughed an SDSU frontline known for its toughness. Duke Brennan played a big role in that, too.
GCU’s 7-1 start has justified the preseason hype. Its plethora of guards have positional size and are dynamic scorers and playmakers. Its gritty big men excel on the offensive glass and offer rim protection on the other end. The Lopes play fast and fun, a style that works with this much size and experience.
Saturday’s showdown at Liberty is Grand Canyon’s last big test of the season. The Lopes are the clear favorite in the WAC, and they’re projected favorites in the rest of their games following the showdown against the Flames.
If you’re looking for a mid-major team to take a gaudy record into Selection Sunday, Grand Canyon might be your team. And yes, that record will be inflated by a poor strength of schedule. Still, the Lopes bring a high-level of play to the court every night.
Shoutout to the CAA!
We’re going to stay in the mid-major ranks to close this Rauf Report with a special shoutout to the CAA. This conference produced a 31-win College of Charleston team last season. While Pat Kelsey and the Cougars remain one of the better mid-majors in the country, other CAA teams have put the league in the national spotlight.
In the past week, the conference has picked up the following victories:
- Drexel’s 57-55 victory over Villanova at the Wells Fargo Center
- UNC Wilmington’s 80-73 victory over Kentucky at Rupp Arena
- Delaware’s 87-80 win over Xavier at the Cintas Center
The CAA will still be a one-bid league barring something unforeseen, but this week showed that a handful of teams at the top can compete with the nation’s top teams. So, when March rolls around, keep in mind that the CAA champion — whoever that ends up being — will likely have the potential to pull a first-round upset.
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