The Rauf Report breaks down another week of NCAA basketball action, headlined by a look at how a pair of top teams have fared on the road so far.
It wouldn’t be the NCAA basketball season without a stretch filled with a handful of upsets, now would it?
Six of the top 11 teams in the AP poll lost this week, with five of those losses coming on the road. That includes top-ranked Purdue, who was dropped by Nebraska, and No. 2 Houston suffering its first defeat of the season at Iowa State. It was a brutal reminder of how difficult it is to win on the road in college basketball. This season has taken things to extremes, though.
That said, not everyone stinks on the road! There are still 10 teams that have not lost a true road game yet this season. We start this week’s Rauf Report with the team that has played the best in front of opposing fans: the North Carolina Tar Heels.
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North Carolina is the nation’s best road team
UNC’s last three games were its first true road tests of the year, which is a brutal way to start conference play. Undaunted, the Heels answered the bell with three double-digit victories. By the way, all of those victories were Quad 1 wins against teams ranked in the KenPom top 70 (Clemson, Pitt, NC State).
North Carolina’s defense deserves all the credit for that. Hubert Davis’ squad continued its upturn on that end with its best defensive performance of the year against NC State.
“I told them after the game that they’re not playing good defense, they’re playing elite defense,” Davis told reporters following the victory over the Wolfpack. “Just taking the challenge of winning their individual one-on-one matchups. Staying on script in terms of what we’ve talked about in preparation for each game. Boxing out and rebounding. This is the fourth straight game that we’ve outrebounded in an opponent.”
The Heels currently boast an adjusted defensive efficiency of 79.1 in their road games, per Torvik. That number would easily be the best in college basketball history if it held for the entire season.
After winning just four road games all last season, it’s been surprising to see North Carolina dominate in this fashion away from Chapel Hill. This team’s defensive dominance is leading to blowouts, though, and to (currently) claim the throne as the best road team in the country.
Purdue’s defense isn’t traveling
The most shocking loss of the week was Purdue falling to Nebraska in Lincoln. The Boilermakers did have a puzzling loss at Northwestern on their resume, but they had been dominant otherwise. Purdue losing a conference road game isn’t surprising or alarming — that happens.
The reasons why Matt Painter’s squad lost, though, might be warning signs moving forward.
Nebraska went 14-of-23 from 3-point range in the game. Some of those were contested 3s, but some of it was questionable perimeter defense from Purdue. The Boilermakers are a known quantity on the offense end, no matter where they’re playing. But their defense, which is elite at Mackey Arena, has made a significant drop in eight games played away from West Lafayette.
Many of those neutral-court games have come against elite opponents, so it’s expected that those teams would have some success on offense. But Purdue’s three true road opponents — Northwestern, Maryland and Nebraska — do not fit that bill. In those games, the Boilermakers’ defense simply hasn’t traveled.
No matter where they play, Purdue’s 3-point defense is also slipping. It held opponents below 24 percent from long range in November, as well as keeping all three Maui Invitational opponents below 30 percent. Since then, opponents are making 37.1 percent of their 3-point attempts.
How can this be fixed? Purdue could try to pressure opposing ballhandlers more and play some tighter off-ball coverage. Zach Edey can erase a lot of mistakes if opponents are able to get to the paint. However, I expect Painter hasn’t applied much perimeter pressure because of the lack of elite athleticism in Purdue’s backcourt.
It will be very interesting to see how the Boilermakers proceed moving forward. I do not expect the wheels to fall off this team. They’re the best team in the Big Ten and will be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but this is a potential weakness worth monitoring.
What’s wrong with FAU?
We also need to discuss what’s happening in Boca Raton. FAU returned virtually everyone from last year’s Final Four team that won 35 games, and the expectation was that the Owls would be among the nation’s elite again.
That hasn’t happened. Dusty May’s squad already has four losses on the season, including a pair of Quad 4 defeats to Bryant and FGCU. The Owls are just 2-2 since beating Florida before Christmas, and they needed last-second free throws from Alijah Martin to beat Tulane on Thursday.
So, what’s wrong with this group? Why aren’t they having the same success as last season?
The answer is three-fold. The Owls have taken a step back defensively, they aren’t rebounding well on the defensive end, and they are much more limited on the bench than they were last season.
Depth was a strength last season, but that’s not so much the case in 2024. May and the program smartly used all their available resources to keep this group together. Still, while an eight-man rotation gets the job done, it doesn’t give the Owls the kind of edge they once enjoyed.
The defense and rebounding are more pressing concerns.
Opponents have changed how they attack May’s defense. FAU doesn’t look as connected on the defensive end, and losing Michael Forrest really hurt in this regard. Virtually every opponent is now trying to put big man Vlad Goldin in ball-screen action, hoping to expose his lack of quickness while taking FAU’s only big man on the court away from the basket.
The good news for the Owls is that the offense is even better than it was a year ago. But any chance of repeating last season’s success — or any chance of winning the American — rests on improving on the defensive end.
Muss Bus stuck in reverse
Eric Musselman’s tenure at Arkansas has been very successful. The Razorbacks have reached the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament in three straight years, breathing life into a program that wanted to become a consistent winner again.
The Muss Bus has found its way to success lately, but it’s often been a rocky road to get there. His 2020-21 team started 2-4 in the SEC before going 15-3 down the stretch and making the Elite Eight. The Razorbacks were 0-3 in the SEC two seasons ago, and then they went 18-4 over the final 22 games — and made another Elite Eight. Last season’s team was 1-5 in the SEC at one point, but Arkansas eventually made the Sweet 16.
Struggles in January aren’t anything new in Fayetteville. However, following a 32-point home loss to Auburn and 10-point road loss to Georgia, the Razorbacks are headed in the wrong direction.
“I thought we played hard,” Musselman told reporters after the loss to the Bulldogs. “We’re obviously not the defensive team we’ve been over the last four years. We’re not guarding the ball like we have; we’re certainly not guarding the 3-point shot. So, if your overall team defense is not up to what it’s been in the past, then your offense should be better.”
Unfortunately for the Hogs, Arkansas is regressing on the offensive end. The backcourt rotation has been juggled, but too frequently the Razorbacks look disjointed and end up taking bad shots.
This Arkansas team still has enough talent to beat anyone in the country. Time may be running out to compete for an SEC title, but Razorback fans are more concerned about having this group ready for the NCAA Tournament. However, if the offense doesn’t turn around quickly, they may not even get there.
Kadary Richmond’s breakout season
On the flip side, Seton Hall shook off a slow start to the season and is playing as well as anyone in the country. The Pirates are 6-1 in their last seven games, including wins over UConn, Providence and Marquette.
Defensive improvements have driven the turnaround, but Kadary Richmond’s star turn is just as important.
The 6-6, 205-pounder has turned into an unstoppable force. Richmond leads the Big East in usage and ranks second in both assist rate and steal rate. He’s everywhere for this team and is playing the most efficient basketball of his career in the lead role in Shaheen Holloway’s offense.
“I don’t think I can name a player in college basketball that’s exactly like him, with the combination of his size, the way he moves and slithers around out there, and his poise,” Marquette head coach Shaka Smart said after Seton Hall’s win over the weekend. “You know he’s not going to shoot a lot from outside, but he gets to the paint anyway.”
Richmond had 21 points and five assists in that Marquette win over Saturday. He then followed that with a 20-point, eight-rebound, eight-assist performance to help Seton Hall survive an upset bid from Georgetown.
I don’t expect the Pirates to finish atop the Big East, though they currently sit there, but I do think this will be an NCAA Tournament team. That’s largely due to Richmond’s production and impact.
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