NCAA Basketball: UNC's defensive dropoff, South Carolina's weakness highlight Feb. 16 Rauf Report

The Rauf Report breaks down the biggest takeaways from the week of NCAA basketball, starting with dips in play from UNC and South Carolina.

Saturday is a big day in the NCAA Basketball world. Not only does it mark a month until Selection Sunday, but the Bracket Preview show will be held at 12:30 pm ET in which the selection committee will reveal their current top-16 overall teams.

It’s hard to overstate the implications of those selections. Since its induction in 2017, only three teams included in the top 16 have fallen more than three seed lines between the reveal and Selection Sunday. Two of those happened during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 campaign, too.

Essentially, if your name is called on Saturday, you have a chance to be a very high seed when the real deal comes on March 17.

We’ll also get some insight into the committee’s thinking regarding the fourth No. 1 seed. Purdue, UConn and Houston are likely the unquestioned top three right now, but the conversation behind them gets muddy. Arizona has a good resume but doesn’t look as strong as it once did, Tennessee has a losing record in Q1 games, Marquette struggled early but has caught fire of late and both Kansas and North Carolina started strong but have faltered in recent weeks.

It’s a fascinating discussion, but I want to start this Rauf Report with a look at the Tar Heels in particular as they’ve gone from nearly wrapping up the ACC to being near freefall in the span of two weeks.

What’s behind that slide and what needs to happen to turn things around? Let’s dive in.

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UNC’s defensive dropoff

North Carolina’s emergence as one of the nation’s top teams in January was the talk of the sport. The Tar Heels ripped off 10 straight victories following back-to-back losses to UConn and Kentucky. There was no cause for concern with those losses as both were hard-fought games and narrow defeats to good teams, and that 10-game win streak showed the kind of progression and dominance you’d hope to see from an elite team.

Six of those 10 wins came away from home – something that has proven to be a real struggle for teams this season – because of the strength of UNC’s defense, which emerged as one of the best in the country. UNC wasn’t forcing turnovers at a high rate but was dominating the glass and defending the three at a high clip.

It has been a different story for the Tar Heels since losing to Georgia Tech on Jan. 30. That started a five-game stretch in which Hubert Davis’ squad has lost three times including Tuesday’s defeat at Syracuse.

The main culprit for this slide? That elite defense hasn’t just regressed – it has fallen off the proverbial cliff.

Davis has publicly dismissed any real concern about his team’s defense, telling reporters after the Syracuse game that UNC “just didn’t have an answer” for the Orange’s guards and that the only thing different in UNC’s defensive effort was that Syracuse was “making shots, as opposed to the first time” the two played when the Heels won by 36 points.

That game in particular did include some element of shot-making by Judah Mintz and JJ Starling. At the same time, that doesn’t account for poor defensive showings against Georgia Tech and Clemson!

North Carolina’s rotations have not been as crisp during this five-game run, something that was even obvious in victories over Duke and Miami. Shooters are being left open at a higher clip than normal and opponents have had an easier time getting into the lane. Throw in the fact that opponents are getting more offensive rebounds and you have the recipe for a struggling defense.

Neither UNC’s stretch of elite defensive play nor this run of struggles has a magic ‘aha!’ moment that cures all, either. There isn’t a particular lineup or coverage that the Heels went to or stopped using (though Seth Trimble’s upper-body injury has likely played some role). It looks to be a matter of effort, connectedness and attentiveness to responsibilities/rotations.

The good news is that it can be fixed, and there’s a month left before Selection Sunday for that to happen. It needs to turn around if the Heels are going to deliver another Final Four run.

South Carolina’s weakness

Sticking in the Carolinas, South Carolina suffered the most embarrassing loss of the week in the form of an 101-61 thrashing from Auburn. The Gamecocks, who entered the game with a 21-3 record, simply had no answer for the Tigers and never had control of the game.

Lamont Paris’ squad has been one of the nation’s biggest surprises this season because of their ability to control a game. They play at a deliberate tempo (355th nationally, per KenPom), but not just for the sake of being slow.

South Carolina’s litany of experienced transfers takes their time on the offensive end with high-level passing, cutting and off-ball movement that slowly creates an open lane or shot it exploits. On the defensive end, it excels at keeping opponents out of transition to make them routinely execute their half-court offense, a strategy that creates lower efficiency opportunities while eliminating as many easy baskets as possible.

That style has been the key to South Carolina’s success. When they can’t play to that style, though, things can get off the rails quickly.

The Gamecocks have played in six games in which there were more than 68 possessions, per Sports Reference. They are 3-3 in such games (compared to 18-1 when playing 68 possessions or fewer), with two of the victories being a five-point win over lowly DePaul and a 10-point victory over VMI – far from convincing performances against lesser competition.

Part of the reason for South Carolina’s struggles when playing at a quicker pace is because it turns the ball over more, which has proven to be another major issue for this team. The Gamecocks have had five games in which they recorded a turnover rate above 16.0, posting a 3-2 mark with two of those wins being a two-point overtime win over Missouri and the DePaul game. Again, far from quality performances from this squad.

The Auburn game represents the most extreme example of these two factors, but they were the two biggest things that created such a gulf between the two sides. This is something to monitor for the Gamecocks moving forward.

Jaylin Williams’ effectiveness

Speaking of Auburn, no player may be as important to its success – or be as representative of its hot-and-cold nature – as Jaylin Williams.

Johni Broome is the unquestioned star with this group, Chad Baker-Mazara has been incredibly impactful off the bench and the multitude of talented guards on this roster give the Tigers a depth advantage in just about every game they play.

Yet Jaylin Williams has proven to be the key driver to Auburn’s success. He ranks 13th nationally in offensive rating and sixth in true shooting percentage, using his combination of size, strength, athleticism and perimeter skills to become the ultimate matchup nightmare in college basketball.

However, when he’s off, he has been really off, and Auburn has struggled because of it. Take a look at how he has performed in Auburn’s 20 wins compared to their five losses.

There are other factors at play with the Tigers overall, such as the disparity between their level of play at home compared to that on the road. Auburn is 13-0 at home while ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Away from Neville Arena, though, the Tigers are 7-5 – including a 4-5 mark against the top two quadrants.

Auburn’s volatility doesn’t fall on solely Williams’ broad shoulders, yet it’s also clear that the Tigers are a much different team when he doesn’t to the level of his ability.

Florida’s propensity to blow big leads

We’ll stay in the SEC to talk about Florida, which is quietly one of the hotter teams in the country. The Gators are 6-1 in their last seven games and have been a top-10 team nationally during that stretch, per Torvik.

The only loss during those seven games came at Texas A&M. There’s certainly no shame in losing in College Station, but the Gators feel like they let one slip away because they led by double digits in the second half.

Blowing significant second-half leads has been plaguing Florida all season. It cost the Gators a potential sweep of Kentucky, a key nonconference win over Wake Forest and nearly sank this seven-game run. Here’s a look at some notable leads that were blown:

Nov. 29: Led Wake Forest by nine with 14:14 left, lost by 11
Jan. 6: Led Kentucky by seven with 12:03 left, lost by two
Jan. 27: Led Georgia by 21 with 12:52 left, won in OT
Feb. 3: Led Texas A&M by 12 with 18:26 left, lost by one
Feb. 13: Led LSU by 20 with 15:31 left, won by two

“Not pleased with the recurring theme of some of our second halves lately, but it’s just not as simple as ‘Hey, you know, got to do some things better,'” head coach Todd Golden told reporters after the LSU game on Tuesday. “In the big picture, you know, we’ve been playing really good ball, won six out of the last seven in one of if not the best leagues in America, and we’re building these double-digit leads against really good teams.”

Golden later added that it’s “that same story over and over again” regarding those second-half leads, and it does have the potential to be an issue for this group come March. Margins are already slim and, if you’re unable to hold a lead against good teams, the margin for error becomes even smaller.

The good news is that Florida is good enough to build those leads. But if the Gators are going to make an NCAA Tournament run, it has to start showing it can maintain them.

VCU is back?

You would not be alone if you wrote off VCU after the first month of the season. The Rams started the year with a home loss to McNeese State, went 4-5 in their first nine games and suffered another home defeat at the hands of Norfolk State. Those struggles extended another month or so when they got off to an 0-2 start in A10 play.

There was a lot of roster turnover following Mike Rhoades’ departure for Penn State, and Ryan Odom was forced to piece this roster together largely through the portal. While understanding it can take some time for new pieces to gel and for a new coach to put his imprint on a program, those early struggles were jarring.

Turns out, it was just a matter of time before the Rams figured it out (having a fully healthy roster has helped immensely, too).

VCU is now 8-1 in its last nine games thanks to a defensive resurgence that has allowed it to beat conference frontrunners Loyola Chicago, Richmond and Dayton at the Siegel Center. They are the only team in the conference with victories over those three, which occupy the top three spots in the A10 standings.

This stretch has also catapulted the Rams into the A10 title picture, sitting just one game behind leaders Dayton and Loyola Chicago in the loss column. The remaining schedule sets up well for VCU, too.

If it can maintain this level of play, road games against Richmond and Dayton in March will have championship implications on the line.

NCAA Basketball: UNC’s defensive dropoff, South Carolina’s weakness highlight Feb. 16 Rauf Report