This season has one of the strongest Sweet 16s in recent memory, but how do the teams stack up against each other?
It was a fun first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, with plenty of madness in the first round and very little in the second.
The lack of Cinderellas in the Sweet 16 — the only “mid-majors,” if you can call them that, are Gonzaga and San Diego State — has led to what should be a second weekend for the ages. Every team except NC State appears in KenPom’s top 25, and of that group, only Clemson and SDSU sit outside the top 16. There are 12 top-25 offenses and 11 top-25 defenses, and all five Cousy Award finalists are still playing.
The Sweet 16 is the round where the best teams begin to take over. However, it is more difficult than usual to identify which of this year’s teams are best.
Let’s dive into each team with our power rankings for the teams in the Sweet 16.
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1. Connecticut Huskies (No. 1 seed, East Region)
The Connecticut Huskies came into the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed, and they have done nothing but prove why. Through two games, UConn has the second-best scoring defense and averages 1.3 points per possession despite below-average 3-point shooting by their standards. UConn unleashed a balanced attack to beat Stetson, while Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer and Donovan Clingan took over in their second-round win over Northwestern. Despite some complaints from head coach Dan Hurley about UConn’s draw, the Huskies have been the best team in the country this season. They should be heavy favorites to make the Final Four.
2. Purdue Boilermakers (No. 1 seed, Midwest Region)
Purdue has been the best team in the tournament so far, winning its first two games by a combined 67 points. The Boilermakers are playing some of their best basketball, scoring 57 second-half points against Utah State with just two each from Zach Edey and Braden Smith. Everyone will point at Edey as the obvious explanation for Purdue’s dominance, but the Boilermakers are also shooting 20-47 (42.6 percent) from deep and have passed Kentucky as the best 3-point shooting team in the country. A dominant big surrounded by snipers? The only thing keeping Purdue off the top of this list is respect for UConn.
3. Houston Cougars (No. 1 seed, South Region)
Houston may not have dominated in the second round, but the Cougars survived a scare from Texas A&M to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cougars were the most efficient team in the country for three and a half months, up until their loss to Iowa State in the Big XII Tournament title game pushed them behind Connecticut. Almost every team has to survive a scare at some point in the NCAA Tournament, and Houston’s win on Sunday night certainly qualifies. Kelvin Sampson’s squad has one of the best guard duos in the country in Jamal Shead and LJ Cryer, but they will need to rebound in a big way if they want to survive the hot Duke Blue Devils to advance to the Elite Eight.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 1 seed, West Region)
North Carolina appeared to be on its way to a scare of their own when it trailed Michigan State by nine points midway through the first half. However, a 26-8 run to put them up at the break, helping the Tar Heels secure a 15-point victory and a Sweet 16 date with Alabama. The one concerning aspect of North Carolina’s run so far has been the disappearing act of Elliot Cadeau. Cadeau wasn’t more than a role player for the Tar Heels anyway, but his four turnovers in the first round and overall poor shooting (six total points on 2-of-8 shooting) haven’t helped. Against the Crimson Tide, UNC will need Cadeau to be better if the Heels want to avoid the upset.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 3 seed, East Region)
Outside the 1-seeds, Illinois has been the most dominant team by a relatively significant margin. In their heavyweight bout with Iowa State, the Illini will look to prove that their easy wins are more than just a result of a favorable path. Beating the Cyclones will be harder than beating Morehead State or Duquesne, and it will take a full team effort to score against the best defense in the country. Regardless, Illinois probably would have been a 2-seed if not for a mid-season plateau during the absence and return of Terrence Shannon Jr. Now, the team is playing its best basketball of the season at the perfect time.
6. Iowa State Cyclones (No. 2 seed, East Region)
The wins might not have looked as pretty, but the Cyclones’ run to the Sweet 16 has been impressive. That’s especially true on the defensive end of the floor, where Iowa State has excelled at forcing turnovers, contesting shots and avoiding fouls. The play of Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert has also been nothing short of exceptional. The pair combined for 57 points and 19 assists across the first two games. If the Cyclones can continue to control the pace, shoot well and avoid turnovers, they might be the toughest out in the tournament.
7. Arizona Wildcats (No. 2 seed, West Region)
Arizona might have the highest ceiling of any team in the country. Three Wildcat players and head coach Tommy Lloyd have all been to national title games and know what it takes to get there. This team also has the greatest “quick scoring run” capability in the country. However, Arizona also plays with its food and lets off the gas more than any other top team in the country. The ‘Cats didn’t take the lead for good against Long Beach State until late in the first half, and they saw a 17-point lead against Dayton dwindle to just three. They lost to USC, Oregon State and Stanford during the regular season as well. When the Wildcats are rolling, they are amazing to watch. However, their lack of focus against inferior opponents could be a concern against Clemson in the Sweet 16.
8. Tennessee Volunteers (No. 2 seed, Midwest Reigion)
Tennessee is in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season, marking the first time since Bruce Pearl’s tenure that the Volunteers have made it out of the first weekend in consecutive years. They have one of the most explosive scoring threats in the entire country (Dalton Knecht), and they surround him with a top-three defense. The lack of scoring against Texas can largely be attributed to Knecht’s struggles as he shot just 5-of-18 from the floor. That game also continued an odd trend of offensive struggle for teams that have played in Virginia’s path to the Final Four — Virginia, Colorado State, Texas and Tennessee have all scored 67 points or fewer in their games along that path. The Vols’ offense will need a resurgence to match the firepower of Creighton, but with Knecht on the floor, that is not much of a stretch.
9. Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 2 seed, South Region)
Guard play wins in March, which is why Marquette is in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2012. Tyler Kolek and Kam Jones are one of the three best guard duos remaining, if not the best. In two games, Kolek and Jones are averaging a combined 42.5 points, 8.5 rebounds and 12.5 assists while shooting 38.4 percent from deep. Kolek seemingly all the big plays for the Golden Eagles to escape Colorado in the second round, while Jones sparked the early leads in both games. Another double-digit-seed opponent is up next in NC State. Though people may still doubt the Golden Eagles if they win, Marquette is playing well and should be a tough Elite Eight matchup for either Houston or Duke if they advance.
10. Duke Blue Devils (No. 4 seed, South Region)
Like nearly half of the Sweet 16, Duke’s path to the second weekend has gone through two double-digit seeds, with the Blue Devils taking down Vermont and James Madison by a total margin of 55. Unlike many of the other freshmen in the tournament, Duke guard Jared McCain has not shrunk from the moment. McCain put up 30 while going 8-for-11 from deep in the second round and might be Duke’s most important player on the floor. If he continues to rise to the challenge alongside Kyle Filipowski and the rest of the starting lineup, the Blue Devils have the firepower to upend Houston’s run to a Final Four.
11. Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 5 seed, Midwest Region)
Gonzaga is the perfect example of a team playing its best basketball in the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs were a popular upset candidate in the first round against Will Wade’s McNeese team. They won that game by 21, maintaining a double-digit lead for the final 32 minutes. Then, the Zags were the seed-line underdog against No. 4 Kansas. They won by 21 again, holding a double-digit lead for the final 15 minutes. Mark Few’s team has answered every doubt with emphatic production that proves they are a different team than what we saw up through mid-January. Defense is still an issue at times, but the Zags’ offense is one of the best remaining in the tournament. Plus, any Mark Few team with a Nembhard running the point will be competitive in March.
12) Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 4 seed, West Region)
Alabama has one of the most attractive offensive play styles in the entire country. The Crimson Tide get up and down the floor, shoot a ton of 3s or finish at the rim, and make shots at a top-10 rate nationally. Their issue all season, however, has been on defense. While that issue cropped up in a 109-96 first-round win over Charleston, it seemed to have been put to rest in the 72-61 victory against Grand Canyon. Against UNC, Alabama can prove that its defensive resurgence against GCU was not just a fluke. Meanwhile, Mark Sears should also help lead the Tide offense to more than 72 points, which was their second-lowest output of the year to date.
13. Creighton Bluejays (No. 3 seed, Midwest Region)
The Creighton Bluejays won what was probably the best game of the second round, a two-overtime bout with the 11th-seeded Oregon Ducks. In that game, the Ducks’ top stars accounted for 53 of Oregon’s 77 shots, and Creighton still barely avoided the upset in regulation. The Bluejays have been incredibly hot and cold down the stretch of this season, beating UConn and Marquette while losing to Butler, St. John’s, and Providence twice. They also escaped Villanova and Oregon in tight games. The upcoming game against Tennessee should be a fantastic matchup — but if Creighton plays the Volunteers like it played Oregon, the ‘Jays will be packing their bags early.
14. Clemson Tigers (No. 6 seed, West Region)
After pummeling New Mexico and controlling Baylor from tip to buzzer, Clemson has earned back some of the respect it built up over the first half of the season. PJ Hall has been relatively quiet, but a lot of that has to do with the respect given to him as Clemson’s best player on the floor. Meanwhile, his “struggles” — Hall is still averaging 12.5 points — have led to other players stepping up in a big way. Ian Schieffelin has been incredibly efficient as a stretch 4, and Chase Hunter hit the 20-point mark and had six assists in each of the first two games. Even RJ Godfrey has made some pretty big plays off the bench. Against Arizona, Hall will not be the best player on the floor, and may not even be the best big. However, his teammates’ play thus far gives Clemson at least a puncher’s chance.
15. San Diego State Aztecs (No. 5 seed, East Region)
Before beating Utah State in the Mountain West Tournament, the Aztecs went over two months without a top-50 KenPom win away from home. They are 1-6 in such games in 2024, which can be blamed partly on the incredible home-court advantages all around the Mountain West. However, it also goes to show how SDSU struggled down the closing stretch of the season. Creighton is the only other Sweet 16 team without multiple top-50 wins away from home since Jan. 1, and they are in the same tier as the Aztecs on this list. San Diego State survived the first two rounds due largely to Jaedon LeDee being the best player on the floor, but that won’t be the case in the next round. The Aztecs will need more than one guard to step up if they want to avoid an embarrassing loss to UConn, let alone win the game.
16. NC State Wolfpack (No. 11 seed, South Region)
There has been a lot of talk about which team has the best backcourt left in the tournament. However, when it comes to the frontcourt, perhaps nobody is playing better than NC State’s DJ Burns and Mohamed Diarra. The duo has combined to average 34.5 points and 18 boards — and that was with Burns sitting most of the Texas Tech game with foul trouble. Marquette is vulnerable, especially in the frontcourt, and NC State could eat up the boards. But we can’t forget how the Wolfpack played most of the season, needing to win five games in five days just to make the Dance. There is a chance that this current five-day break finally cools them off, which has happened to many double-digit seeded Sweet 16 teams in the past.