The 2024 NCAA Tournament is approaching. Our bubble watch dives into every at-large contender and what they must do to prove they belong in March Madness.
Reaching the NCAA Tournament is a significant accomplishment for any team in college basketball. Not every path to the Big Dance is created equal, though. The at-large selection process includes finding a balance across results, metrics, and the eye test. As each season progresses, bracketology looks into which teams have the best odds at making the field and how they might be seeded.
The Heat Check CBB Bubble Watch page dives into every team competing for NCAA Tournament at-large bids. The piece categorizes each team by their bubble status and provides individual breakdowns of their resumes. Want to find out what your team needs to do moving forward? The 2023 March Madness Bubble Watch has it covered.
For those who are new to our Bubble Watch column, here is a breakdown of the categories (featuring NEW CATEGORY ALERT! Say hello to the “Not Dead Yet” category. Unless listed in this category in parenthesis to signify even longer shots, these teams all have write-ups attached to them.).
To fast-forward to a specific conference, click here:
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC | Pac-12
Mountain West | American | Atlantic 10 | Others
More Heat Check CBB:
Metrics and resumes are current through the morning of March 6, 2024.
Atlantic Coast
Deadbolt lock: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Safely in the field: None
Some perspiration: None
Double the deodorant: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Wake Forest
Not dead yet: Virginia Tech, Syracuse
Virginia Cavaliers
It has been tough sledding for Virginia down the stretch. Once thought to be a single-digit seed, the Cavaliers have now dropped four of their last six. Two of those losses (at Virginia Tech, at Duke) came by a combined 59 points. As a result, UVA has plummeted in quality metrics, now ranking 68th on KenPom. There is no way to quantify whether or not this will matter to the committee, but Virginia has not passed the eye test. On the bright side, Virginia is still 15-9 against the upper three quadrants with no bad losses. The Cavaliers also rank in the top 40 across both resume metrics, which keeps them on the right side of the projected cutline for most bracketologists. Virginia’s 5-6 road record is a plus relative to most of the bubble. They close the regular season with a must-win home game against a Georgia Tech team that has been kryptonite for many.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Road losses to Wake Forest and Clemson have dampened Pittsburgh’s push towards the field, but those are the team’s only losses since Feb. 1. The Panthers have not added much “quality” down the stretch, but they have bumped their record to 20-10 and now average top-40 marks in the quality metrics. Their resume metrics are bubble-level, as is a 7-8 record in Q1/Q2. A lack of quality wins (just 2-6 in Q1) and two Q3 losses hold them back — as well as playing the No. 343 nonconference strength of schedule. That NCSOS could prove to be Pitt’s undoing if it is right on the cutline on Selection Sunday. If the Panthers do make the field, though, a 7-4 record in true road games would be a big reason. They close with a must-win home game against NC State heading into the ACC Tournament.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
A home loss to Georgia Tech might have been the final nail in the coffin for Wake Forest’s at-large hopes. The Demon Deacons still rank highly in the quality metrics (30th in BPI, 28th in KenPom), but that is the only thing going for them compared to the rest of the bubble. The loss to GT ruined the clean resume that had previously lacked a Q3 or Q4 loss. The Deacs have only one two Q1 wins, a sub-240 NCSOS and, most importantly, just a 2-9 record in true road games. They did not win a single regular-season game away from Winston-Salem over a top-90 NET team. The elite quality metrics keep Wake in the conversation going into a home game with Clemson and the ACC Tournament, but it feels like they would be on the outside-looking-in right now due to all the negatives on the teamsheet.
Virginia Tech Hokies
Is beating Wake Forest at home and Louisville on the road — two things most ACC teams have done — really enough to keep Virginia Tech in the at-large conversation? Perhaps not, but the Hokies’ teamsheet does look more palatable with those two wins. They still have an average rank of 65.0 across the resume metrics but are top 50 in both quality metrics. A 6-12 record in Q1/Q2 is a major negative, as is a Q3 loss. The Hokies finish with Notre Dame at home, which will not change much for their resume. VT will be on the outside looking in heading into the ACC Tournament but will remains in the mix if it can add a high-quality win or two. Potential games against Duke, UNC and/or Clemson would all qualify.
Syracuse Orange
Syracuse is ranked 84th in the NET, 96th in BPI and 83rd on KenPom. The Orange also hold just a 2-8 record in Q1 and having suffered a Q3 loss. Yet, somehow, the Orange rank 38th in KPI and 41st in SOR — and those numbers are enough to stay in the mix. The record and lack of quality wins are not indicative of a tournament team, but those resume metrics mean that Syracuse cannot be eliminated from at-large contention yet. This squad probably won’t make the tournament — nor should it, in my opinion — but it has some of the best resume metrics on the bubble. That alone keeps them in the conversation.
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC | Pac-12
Mountain West | American | Atlantic 10 | Others
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