The 2025 NCAA Tournament is approaching. Our bubble watch dives into every at-large contender and what they must do to prove they belong in March Madness.
Reaching the NCAA Tournament is a significant accomplishment for any team in college basketball. Not every path to the Big Dance is created equal, though. The at-large selection process includes finding a balance across results, metrics, and the eye test. As each season progresses, bracketology looks into which teams have the best odds at making the field and how they might be seeded.
The Heat Check CBB Bubble Watch page dives into every team competing for NCAA Tournament at-large bids. The piece categorizes each team by their bubble status and provides individual breakdowns of their resumes. Want to find out what your team needs to do moving forward? The 2025 March Madness Bubble Watch has it covered.
For those who are new to our Bubble Watch column, here is a breakdown of the categories:
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ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC
Mountain West | West Coast | Others
Metrics and resumes are current through the morning of March 11, 2025.
Atlantic Coast
Deadbolt lock: Duke, Clemson, Louisville
Some perspiration: None
Double the deodorant: North Carolina, Wake Forest, SMU
Not dead yet: None
North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina has some of the better quality metrics on the bubble, ranking 34.3 across BPI, KenPom, and T-Rank. It is also above-.500 against the upper three quadrants with only one bad loss. However, it is barely top 50 in resume metrics and its 1-11 record in Quadrant 1 games sticks out like a sore thumb compared to bubble peers with quality wins. It is hard to see UNC leap into the field without at least one more Q1 win. Having lost to Duke in their regular-season finale, the Tar Heels’ at-large hopes likely come down to the ACC Tournament, the following teams would be Q1 opponents on a neutral site: Duke, Clemson, Louisville, and (maybe) SMU.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest’s resume metrics, once elite among its bubble peers, have fallen to barely ranking within the top 50 after losses to NC State, Virginia, and Duke. As a result, the Demon Deacons have fallen out of the field. The argument in favor of Wake Forest is that its resume metrics are still better than teams like Ohio State, Colorado sTate, Boise State, and Texas, while also boasting a 15-10 record against the upper three quadrants. A neutral-site win over Michigan is an excellent early-season result they are hanging onto as well. The argument against them centers around sub-70 quality metrics, two Quadrant 3 losses, and owning only one win over the field. Wake needs a very strong performance at the ACC Tournament.
SMU Mustangs
It is hard to imagine SMU dancing without a Quadrant 1 win given its number of at-bats. SMU hasn’t played a ton of Q1 games but it has had four tries and lost them all — and by significant margins. SMU is 17-5 in Q2+3 games and still rates as a top 50 team across the NET and all three quality metric averages, though, so if it were to add a Q1 win, it could rise towards the field. SMU has to hope to meet Duke, Clemson, Louisville, and/or North Carolina in the ACC Tournament and pull off at least one victory. Essentially, SMU is in the mix but has to do something that it hasn’t done all year.
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | SEC
Mountain West | West Coast | Others
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