A packed college basketball weekend saw some teams prove their legitimacy while others exposed key weaknesses.
There’s a slow week of college basketball ahead, but Saturday’s phenomenal slate of games more than made up for it. What will likely go down as one of the best days of the season delivered in every way, from buzzer-beaters to upsets to high-profile matchups decided in the closing minutes.
We’re not going to go through the results of all those notable games — you don’t need me to recap everything for you; Sleepers Media has that more than covered. Instead, let’s focus on trends from those games that will matter moving forward.
Aside from the marquee games, this weekend also saw some contenders start to separate themselves from pretenders. In that regard, perhaps no game raised as many questions as UConn’s victory over Gonzaga at Madison Square Garden.
With that in mind, we start this Rauf Report with a look at both the Huskies and the Zags.
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UConn’s defense has been the difference
The sentiment surrounding Saturday’s victory was resounding: “UConn is back!”
It’s hard to argue. The Huskies’ past three wins have all come against top-50 opponents, the same level of competition they struggled with during the Maui Invitational.
Ahead of Saturday’s game at MSG, UConn corrected course with wins over Baylor and Texas. But those victories were more stabilizers than statements. Gonzaga was a different test, and Dan Hurley’s squad passed it — largely thanks to its defense.
Looking at the numbers, the biggest difference between the UConn team that struggled Maui and the one we see now is on the defensive end. The Husky offense is still operating at a high level, but the defense has gone from incredibly porous to a much more respectable level.
The Huskies won’t have the same dominant defenses they’ve had the last two years without an Adama Sanogo or a Donovan Clingan anchoring things around the rim. But prior to the recent surge, this had been the program’s worst defense since Hurley’s first season in Storrs.
Now, the Huskies are performing at a similar level to the 2020-21 and 2021-22 teams that made the NCAA Tournament and were right behind Jay Wright’s final Villanova teams in the Big East.
The Maui Invitational showed us that this UConn team isn’t the invincible, inevitable force it has been the last two seasons. At the same time, the last three games suggest this team can still win the Big East.
What to make of Gonzaga
Now for Gonzaga. The loss to the Huskies is their third defeat in the last five games and puts them at 2-3 in Quad 1 games. Those two victories, by the way, were against a questionable Baylor team and a good San Diego State team that wasn’t at 100 percent.
I talked recently about the issues with Gonzaga’s perimeter defense, and it’s still a problem. But our Connor Hope also noted that the opening minutes of the second half have been a sore spot for the Zags:
Gonzaga allowed significant second-half comebacks in its losses to West Virginia and Kentucky, and UConn took control against the Bulldogs in those first two TV timeouts right after halftime.
For head coach Mark Few, that surge from the Huskies was just the way the ball bounced — but he is not sounding the alarm just yet.
“They just have the heart of a champion,” he said of UConn after the game. “[Dan Hurley] kind of brings that out of them. To me, we knew it was going to be a physical fist fight, and I kind of thought we broke that task. They just made a couple more of those baskets.”
The overall trend is alarming, however. Part of the issue is Gonzaga coming out flat. Part of it is opponents making second-half adjustments and Few’s team being slower than usual to react. Another aspect is simply not matching the intensity of their opponents. That last part isn’t always an easy fix.
Gonzaga’s schedule does lighten up from here on out, though. UCLA is the only top-200 team left on its nonconference schedule, and Saint Mary’s is the only other KenPom top-50 team in the WCC. But if the Zags can’t solidify some things, they may be more upset-prone than usual.
Indiana’s latest loss is cause for concern
Indiana’s loss to Nebraska on Friday night was jarring — but even more jarring was the realization that the Hoosiers have now lost to the Cornhuskers in four consecutive seasons.
That is as damning an indictment of Mike Woodson’s coaching tenure as anything else. This latest loss, though, further highlighted Indiana’s struggles against good teams this season.
The Hoosiers have dominated the lesser opponents they have played. Convincing victories over notable names like South Carolina, Providence and Minnesota help boost their profile, but those wins haven’t exactly aged well, either.
As things stand, Indiana has played just four games against teams that rank in the top 100 in Bart Torvik’s T-Rank standings. Filtering for top-100 games only, Indiana ranks just 124th nationally compared to 28th against lesser opponents.
In short, Indiana is really good against bad teams — but one of the worst teams in the power conference ranks when facing good opponents. It’s WAB (Wins Above Bubble) currently sits at zero, meaning the Hoosiers have performed exactly as well as an average NCAA Tournament bubble team would against its schedule.
Considering this team was supposed to compete for a Big Ten title — and has the talent to do so, quite frankly — that’s concerning. What’s even more alarming is that Indiana only has one conference game on the schedule against a team currently outside the top 100, and that’s a road trip to Washington.
Don’t be surprised if the Hoosiers struggle once Big Ten play gets fully underway in January.
Can Xavier compete in the Big East?
Xavier is another team that simply hasn’t been good against the better teams it has played. Using the same top-100 cutoff as Indiana, the Musketeers struggle to an even more significant degree.
No matter where you look, the numbers aren’t kind: Xavier’s shooting is noticeably worse, and its turnovers go way up. Meanwhile, that single top-100 win came against South Carolina, the lowest-rated SEC team in the NET rankings. As it stands, WAB has the Musketeers missing the NCAA Tournament altogether given its level of play. To top it off, they lost the Crosstown Shootout to Cincinnati for the first time in six years.
What has gone wrong here? In reality, there isn’t much the Musketeers do well besides shoot the three. They aren’t great on the glass and are one of the worst teams in the nation at finishing in the paint. That’s before we get back to the turnovers problems.
All that aside, the biggest issue comes on defense. Xavier lacks rim protection and has been one of the worst power conference teams on the perimeter, ranking 259th in 3-point defense, per KenPom.
There is no easy way out of these issues without multiple players stepping up. There is no consistent production outside the top three or four guys on the roster, and that’s a major problem – especially if Zach Freemantle misses significant time.
The Big East is not some major gauntlet this season, as many teams in the league — Xavier included — have struggled in nonconference play. The Musketeers needs to start proving themselves against the best teams the league has to offer if they are going to grab an NCAA Tournament bid.
This Memphis team is different – in the best way
While other teams showed their warts this weekend, Memphis — somewhat surprisingly — showed incredible toughness in a comeback overtime victory at Clemson.
In recent years, the Tigers have started strong before hitting a rough patch out of nowhere that quickly undoes any goodwill they’ve built up. Last Sunday’s home loss to Arkansas State looked like yet another canary in the coal mine.
Instead, Memphis recovered and made crucial plays on both ends of the court to win on Saturday. Penny Hardaway’s squad forced Clemson into poor shots, moved the ball incredibly well in the half-court, and looked as connected as a unit as it has all season.
“I would say this is the biggest win of the season, even though we’ve beaten UConn,” Hardaway told reporters after the game. “To come into this building after losing a game — having a hiccup, in our minds, against Arkansas State — to get a win is just a blessing. We showed who we were again.”
This is Hardaway’s best 3-point shooting team — one of the very best in the country, in fact — and it boasts one of the nation’s truly elite backcourts. Memphis gets to the foul line at a high rate, has two quality rim protectors, and already has the most Quad 1 victories (five) of any Penny team.
Memphis still has a few more Quad 1 opportunities, too, traveling to Virginia on Wednesday before hosting Mississippi State and Ole Miss to close out the calendar year. Then it’s on to AAC play, where the Tigers are heavy favorites to win the league. In fact, they are favored to win the rest of the games on their schedule, per KenPom.
The bounce-back win over Clemson signals that Memphis is for real, and not just a flash in the pan.
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