The latest Rauf Report looks to shower some love on four players who will play a major role in how the rest of the college basketball season goes.
Today is Valentine’s Day. Let’s share the love, shall we?
This column is often used to break down why a given team isn’t as good as they appear to be, or even more often, where and why something has gone wrong. But with all the love in the air, we’re going to keep things positive today and look at players who have greatly impressed this week — and how these guys will impact the sport on the road to March Madness.
We’ll get started with a look at star UConn freshman Liam McNeeley, who put forth one of the great individual performances of the season to lead the Huskies past Creighton this week.
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Appreciating Liam McNeeley’s greatness
After missing eight games due to a high ankle sprain, McNeeley returned last weekend — and not a moment too soon. The Huskies went just 5-3 without him and slid out of the Big East title race during his absence. Two of those losses, Villanova and Xavier, were head-scratchers in which the Huskies simply lost to inferior opponents.
The 6-7, 210-pounder’s return didn’t immediately right the ship, but his performance against Creighton hammered home his impact. McNeeley finished that game with 38 points and 10 rebounds, while the rest of his teammates combined for just 32 points.
“No freshman has had a more impressive performance in this type of environment against a team like that,” head coach Dan Hurley said. “He’s got the swagger that guys like Cam Spencer and Donovan Clingan had. That kind of ‘F you’ type of thing. He’s our biggest personality, and we’ve missed that. That’s been a (missing) ingredient that has really hurt us in some of these late-game situations.”
While the intangibles matter, McNeeley has also had a significant tangible impact all season long.
Per EvanMiya.com, McNeeley ranks in the 98th percentile nationally in Defensive Impact and in 97th percentile in Scoring Volume, showing his dominance as a two-way player. UConn’s Net Offensive Rating jumps from 18.3 to 29.9 with him on the court, while its Net Defensive Rating skyrockets from 8.0 to 23.9.
Put another way: Without McNeeley, the Huskies aren’t an NCAA Tournament team; with him, they are one of America’s top teams.
Further, with point guard Hassan Diarra on the mend, UConn is shifting toward bigger, more positionless lineups. That strategy led to McNeeley posting his highest usage rate (36.8) of the season against the Bluejays. Expect the Huskies to continue featuring him heavily down the stretch.
Wooga Poplar helping spark Villanova
UConn’s loss to Villanova was jarring, but it wasn’t totally shocking given some of the flashes the Wildcats have shown since their disastrous 3-4 start.
Kyle Neptune’s squad moved to 15-10 overall and 8-6 in Big East play following Wednesday’s stunning victory over St. John’s. That win helps put them back in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. Star big man Eric Dixon continues to be stellar as this team’s leader, yet Wooga Poplar has emerged in conference play as a formidable running mate — and a critical piece on the perimeter.
Poplar had team-highs with 22 points, six rebounds and four steals in that victory over the Red Storm, highlighting his considerable turnaround. Remember, Poplar was essentially benched in November, but he has emerged as a much more productive and efficient player.
Neptune gushed out Poplar’s impact on this team after his 15-point, 13-rebound showing against Providence last month:
To his credit, Poplar has raised his game even more of late. The senior has scored at least 22 points in three of Villanova’s four February games while averaging six rebounds and nearly four steals per game.
Villanova is still Dixon’s team, yet it’s looking more and more like the Philly native Poplar will have the biggest impact on the Wildcats’ NCAA Tournament hopes.
JT Toppin’s special season
Texas Tech has been one of the nation’s pleasant surprises. Grant McCasland’s squad ranks in the top 10 on every major analytics site and is only two games back of Houston in the Big 12 title race.
The Red Raiders have been really good for a few reasons. They boast a top-10 offense, they shoot well from three, and they’ve found an elite backcourt in Elijah Hawkins and Darrion Williams.
And yet, JT Toppin has somehow gone overlooked through all this — which feels strange given his hype as one of the best available transfers this offseason.
To be clear, Toppin has delivered on every bit of that hype. The 6-9, 225-pounder leads the Big 12 in usage and defensive rebound rate and is top five in scoring, shooting percentage and rebounding. In fact, only two D-I players match Toppin’s combination of usage, offensive rating and defensive impact: Auburn’s Johni Broome and Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the two National Player of the Year frontrunners.
Toppin’s breakout performance finally came in a 41-point, 15-rebound outing that guided Texas Tech past Arizona State in double overtime on Wednesday.
“He’s been working,” McCasland said of Toppin. “He’s finally healthy, and he’s finally able to practice, and he’s finally able to put in the individual work. And he’s not shy about work. … I’ve been so impressed with his resilience, with his fight to keep getting better even though he’s kind of tweaked his ankles. He’s just scratching what he’s capable of, and I say that with a lot of confidence.”
As Toppin continues tapping into his immense potential, Texas Tech will keep rising. The Red Raiders are already 6-3 in Quad 1 games this season and have three left on the schedule — including a Feb. 24 home game against Houston, which could decide the Big 12.
Derik Queen’s bounce-back
Much like Toppin’s play has helped spur Texas Tech to new heights, Derik Queen’s resurgence has helped Maryland start to get hot at the right time. The freshman big man had 24 points and 11 rebounds in the Terrapins’ win over Nebraska in Lincoln, the latest in a line of headliner performances from Queen.
The Nebraska game came on the heels of a 29-point, 15-rebound, five-assist showing against Rutgers, which was arguably the best game of Queen’s young career.
It’s not a surprise that Queen is dominating. After all, that’s what he did for the first two months of the season. That said, he really hit a freshman wall during the first half of January, and Maryland struggled as the 6-10, 246-pounder wasn’t as productive or efficient.
Queen seems to have broken through that wall. He hasn’t just gotten back on track, either; he has been at his most productive over Maryland’s last six games, during which the Terps picked up four Quad 1 wins.
“There have definitely been some games where I struggled a lot and my numbers or my performance wasn’t great,” Queen admitted to reporters following the Nebraska game. “But now, with my coaches and my teammates getting on me, telling me I’m better than this, and me just watching film of myself, I just keep building and keep learning what mistakes not to make.”
Queen’s ability to score on the block or with his face-up game — especially his unique ability to create off the bounce as a big man — makes him a projected lottery pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. He’s back to looking the part, which is a scary proposition for the rest of the Big Ten.
George Mason has real at-large hopes
After highlighting four individual players, we close this Rauf Report by praising one team: George Mason. In case you’re just catching up, the Patriots have put themselves in prime position to make the NCAA Tournament regardless of whether they win the A-10’s automatic bid.
Tony Skinn’s squad holds a one-game lead over VCU in the conference standings, and those two will meet Feb. 22 in a potential de facto title game. However, that is the only remaining game George Mason has against the top two Quadrants, meaning the Patriots could cruise through the rest of the regular season.
GMU 20th win of the season came in Tuesday’s road victory over Saint Louis, and the Patriots have reached this point largely because they rank in the top 10 nationally in Torvik’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. Two of their losses have been to high quality teams in Marquette and Duke, and the other three losses came by a combined five points. Mason’s defense gives it a chance to win virtually every game, and the offense has improved of late.
The 20-5 record, coupled with GMU’s conference record and analytical profile, has the Patriots in position to be an NCAA Tournament team no matter what. Per Torvik, two of the three teams with the most similar efficiency profiles to Mason’s — 2023 Mississippi State and 2022 San Diego State — earned at-large bids. That provides some historical precedent, especially with SDSU coming from a top mid-major league.
As long as George Mason avoids a bad loss before the A-10 Tournament, the Patriots should go dancing.
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