This latest Rauf Report looks at what should be expected from Missouri and Wisconsin given the recent surges from both, along with much more.
The NCAA Tournament officially starts in less than a month and we’re just nine (!!!) days away from the start of the Atlantic Sun Tournament, the first conference tournament to get underway.
Yup, we’re getting to that special time of year.
Because I want to look at what could be sustainable in March, this Rauf Report is going to focus on a handful of teams making late surges. For instance, Kentucky’s defense has improved and Baylor is headed in the wrong direction — should we buy either of those observations as long-term truths?
Meanwhile, Missouri and Wisconsin have also spent the last few weeks proving doubters wrong. The Badgers are coming off two significant victories (at Purdue, vs. Illinois), while the Tigers just blasted Alabama on Wednesday night. Both programs have a handful of quality wins but have trailed behind in the analytical metrics — until now.
Should we finally believe in Missouri and Wisconsin? Is it time to buy in?
We’ll start the column with a look at the Tigers, whose win over the Crimson Tide was the most impressive victory of the week.
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What is Missouri’s ceiling?
The Tigers showed off many of the positive things about them in that Alabama win. Six different players scored in double figures, showing the balance of the roster, while Mark Mitchell (31 points) and Caleb Grill (25 points) put forth star-worthy performances. Tamar Bates took a backseat to those two, even though he has been the one leading the way for most of the season.
Missouri shot the three well and got to the foul line 47 times — not a surprise, given the Tigers lead the nation in free throw rate — while forcing 14 Alabama turnovers.
That wasn’t just a Wednesday night special, either; the Tigers have been doing this all season long. However, a weak nonconference schedule and a 1-2 mark in three games against top-100 competition helped damper expectations.
In SEC play, however, Missouri’s efficiency has gone through the roof. The Tigers rank as the fourth-most efficient team in D-I since the start of the new year, per Torvik, behind only Auburn, Duke and Houston.
Those numbers have been boosted by Missouri’s success against teams in the SEC’s second and third tiers, most of which have been by double digits. The Tigers have also flashed the ability to beat the very best teams around, as seen in victories against Florida and now Alabama.
Now, can we expect this to translate to March? While there are no clear NBA prospects on the roster, Mizzou can rely on a depth of quality guard play. That dynamic typically bodes well in the NCAA Tournament, especially for teams that shoot and force turnovers like the Tigers do.
There are other reasons for optimism, too. Of the 10 teams with the most similar tournament resumes, per Torvik, seven reached at least the Sweet 16. Even better, two ended up in the Final Four.
What is Wisconsin’s ceiling?
Wisconsin and Missouri have been on very similar trajectories this season. The Badgers were productive in nonconference play but went 1-3 against top-50 competition in November and December. Those results suggested they were a good-but-not-great team.
That narrative has flipped in the new year. Greg Gard’s squad has won 13 of its last 15 games, and none have been more impressive than the last two: a 10-point road win over Purdue and a 21-point drubbing of Illinois at home.
Wisconsin hasn’t changed its identity during this stretch, either. It has simply been better on both ends of the court. John Tonje’s continued breakout (20.1 ppg, 51.3 FG% in 2025) has helped spur the Badgers’ offense, which is shooting more 3-pointers than usual for a Gard-coached squad. They are 19th nationally in 3-point rate, per KenPom, after sitting 226th a season ago.
It helps that this is the best shooting team Gard has had, too. Wisconsin ranks top 50 nationally, collectively shooting just under 37 percent from deep.
But is this surge sustainable in the NCAA Tournament? After all, the Badgers haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2017.
Well, there are some indications that Wisconsin could make a long run through March Madness. Two of the most similar historical comparisons, per Torvik, made the Final Four — and six of the eight most similar reached at least the Elite Eight:
Wisconsin does have to close strong, though. Oregon comes to town on Saturday, and next weekend’s trip to Michigan State is the toughest remaining test on the Badgers’ schedule. Based on how this team has played in 2025, they appear to be more than up for that challenge.
Kentucky’s defense has vastly improved
Kentucky is dealing with a rash of injuries right now, including starting guards Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson. However, that wasn’t why the Wildcats looked vulnerable in late January and early February.
It was the team’s defense, which ranked as one of the worst at the power-conference level — and one of the worst in the country in certain categories. In fact, I wrote a month ago about how defense was severely limiting Kentucky’s ceiling. In that piece, I also noted that the ‘Cats had enough good individual defenders on this roster to turn things around.
And guess what? It has!
Over the last two weeks, this shorthanded Wildcats team is winning games, including dominant performances over South Carolina, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, because of its defense.
“We’ve got a lot of room for improvement because we aren’t great,” Mark Pope told reporters after beating Vanderbilt on Wednesday. “But we’re getting better.”
In fact, Kentucky has defended the perimeter well all season long, ranking top-10 nationally in 3-point defense, but its interior defense has vastly improved. Pope previously said his team simply wasn’t tough enough; however, there has been a clear, concerted effort to match opponent’s physicality in the paint in recent games.
The Wildcats likely won’t become a great defensive team by March, particularly as they struggle to turn opponents over (348th in turnovers forced). They don’t have to be great, though, because of how good their offense is. The defense just needs to be reliable, and it’s finally getting there.
So, how real is the turnaround? We’ll find out Saturday when Kentucky faces Alabama in Tuscaloosa.
Baylor is sliding to the bubble
While Kentucky has turned things around, Baylor has not – and it’s causing the Bears to slide closer and closer to the bubble. They’ve been headed in the wrong direction ever since conference play started, with an 8-7 mark in Big 12 play dropping them to 16-10 overall.
The Bears are still a projected No. 9 seed because they have largely beaten who they were supposed to have beaten and played a lot of quality competition (18 games against the top two quadrants). All those losses to good teams haven’t hurt them — yet.
That has the potential to change in the next two weeks.
Baylor has five games left, three of which are on the road, and three of which fall in Q1. Unfortunately for Scott Drew & Co., the Bears have struggled in both categories this year.
Against Q1 competition, Baylor is 5-9 — and just 1-9 in Q1-A games. The Bears rank 50th in adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO) and 170th in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) in those Q1 games, showing just how vulnerable they truly are when having to face the best.
Baylor is also just 2-7 on the road this season, ranking 27th in AdjO and 122nd in AdjD in those games. Its remaining road schedule — Colorado, Cincinnati and TCU — isn’t exactly a murderer’s row. Wins won’t help Baylor much, but any losses will surely drag its NCAA Tournament resume down even further.
The way the Bears are playing, another loss (or two) before the regular-season finale against Houston seems likely. If that happens, Baylor may be in for a sweatier Selection Sunday than it would like.
The Sun Belt has the nation’s most exciting title race
Looking for exciting conference races to follow down the homestretch? Look no further than the Sun Belt! Five teams — South Alabama, James Madison, Arkansas State, Troy and Appalachian State — are all within a game of first place, with just three games to play.
Arkansas State appeared to have a stranglehold on the league three weeks ago, but the Red Wolves have lost four of their last five games, including their past two to Troy and South Alabama. However, Troy has stumbled recently as well, losing three of its last five games.
That has opened the door for others to step in. Enter South Alabama and James Madison. South Alabama has won five of its last six games, three of which have come in overtime. Meanwhile, JMU is hitting its stride under first-year head coach Preston Spradlin, winning eight of its last nine.
As for Appalachian State, the Mountaineers were 6-7 overall and 0-2 in league play after losing to Troy on Jan. 2. App State is 11-3 since then, including a sweep of JMU.
The other part making things interesting is that all five teams are legitimately good. They all rank in the KenPom top 150, and all but JMU boast top-85 defenses nationally. The Dukes, meanwhile, have the best offense of the group.
Sun Belt play ends Feb. 28, and everyone has three games left to play. However, somehow none of these teams will play each other before what should be a spectacular conference tournament. Sure, it’s a bit disappointing that there isn’t a high-profile showdown to decide things. Still, it will be interesting to monitor which of these teams finish strong and which stumble down the stretch.
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