The Rauf Report looks at NCAA Tournament cases for Indiana and Arkansas, as well as why Illinois, Purdue and Gonzaga fans should be worried going into March.
That was a totally normal weekend of college basketball, right?
Eleven ranked teams lost in all, and this time of year, the results always feel a little more impactful.
Michigan State pulled even with Michigan in the Big Ten title race behind huge games from Jase Richardson and Tre Holloman. Houston and Tennessee won top-10 battles over Iowa State and Texas A&M, respectively. Elsewhere, another handful of teams likely locked up tournament bids with victories over ranked teams.
Saturday night’s primetime showdown at Madison Square Garden between Duke and Illinois was the clear-cut headliner going into the weekend. However, Duke’s dominating win was arguably the biggest headline coming out of it.
The Blue Devils cruised to a 110-67 victory, silencing questions about their ability to win games outside a weak ACC. Seven players scored in double figures for Duke, all taking fewer than 10 shots. Eight players had multiple assists. No one was ball dominant. Duke showed up defensively as well, holding Illinois to 37.7 percent shooting, including just 2-of-26 from deep.
Cooper Flagg (rightfully) gets most of the attention, but Duke showed everything it had in its arsenal.
“To me, it’s about the sharing with 28 assists, six turnovers, and then the fact that we guard,” head coach Jon Scheyer told reporters postgame. “The consistency of everybody stepping up … even the guys at the end with what they did, they played the same way. That’s the standard that we’ve talked about.”
That standard could very well make Duke the team to beat in the NCAA Tournament. However, Saturday also highlighted everything wrong with Illinois right now. And that’s where we begin this Rauf Report.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Auburn, Alabama, Duke and Florida on top line
- Bubble Watch: Latest projections, intel on tournament hopefuls
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Illinois is playing its worst basketball at the wrong time
Remember when we talked about the Illini as potential Final Four contender after how explosive they looked during the first half of the season? The hype peaked on Jan. 8 following their 91-52 destruction of Penn State, a dominant victory that came without Kasparas Jakucionis (and before the Nittany Lions’ season fell apart).
That was the game that showed us what Illinois could be when everything clicks. Unfortunately for them, nothing has clicked since then.
Illinois is 5-8 in its 13 games since that Penn State victory with really poor play across the board. Despite boasting a top-20 offense over that span, the Illini have also been the second-worst 3-point shooting team in the nation. Brad Underwood’s squad has been a mess defensively, too, failing to force turnovers or pressure opponents on the perimeter at all.
For his part, Underwood isn’t shying away from the offensive style of play despite shooting 7.7 percent from deep against the Blue Devils.
“I don’t want to make a huge deal out of it, but it’s starting to become a point of irritation for me because we do it in practice,” he said. “Man the hell up, jump up and shoot the thing in like you know what you’re doing and what you were recruited to do. It’s basically what I told the team after the game.”
That’s just one issue, though. It’s clear a lot more is going wrong in Champaign. Illinois has been saving its worst for last, including some of its worst defensive performances of the year over the past seven games.
With Iowa, Michigan and Purdue remaining on the schedule, Illinois is running out of time to get right.
Why I’m very concerned about Purdue
Illinois’ regular-season finale against the Boilermakers may only seem daunting, though. That’s because Purdue is also headed in the complete wrong direction at the worst time.
Sunday’s 15-point loss to Indiana was the fourth straight loss for Matt Painter’s squad, and the last three haven’t been particularly close. Purdue has been fine offensively but that defense — the one we praised for being spectacular during the month of January — has turned into one of the nation’s worst units.
Purdue has the worst two-point defense in the country over the last four games while ranking in the bottom 15 for forcing turnovers. The Boilermakers also foul a ton, ranking 323rd in personal foul rate. They are essentially giving up a bucket or sending the opponent to the foul line any time the ball gets into the paint, and they’ve stopped forcing turnovers on the perimeter.
After the Indiana game, Painter blamed the slide on mental errors.
“We have good guys. We don’t have selfishness, we don’t have that. That isn’t an issue with us,” he explained. “We have an accountability issue and a concentration issue where guys aren’t concentrating to do their job on both ends. When they do, we’re pretty damn good. We’re a good basketball team. But we can’t allow the ball to be in the paint, we don’t have rim protection. When we go against how we’re doing stuff and we allow the ball to get there, we’re not going to have success.”
Purdue’s success also hinges on Braden Smith, Foster Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn playing well. That trio carries the offense. But Painter makes a good point: If there’s virtually no defense being played, it negates everything else. Purdue has to get that turned around quickly.
Indiana’s NCAA Tournament case
As for the Boilermakers’ most recent opponent, Indiana crept back into the NCAA Tournament conversation after beating both Michigan State and Purdue last week. The Hoosiers are still on the outside looking in, but there are things to like about their resume.
Indiana is one of just 27 teams in the country with at least three Quad 1-A wins, and its overall record against Quad 1 is 4-11. That’s a lot of losses, but Indiana hasn’t lost outside of the top quadrant, either. There are no bad losses — not even any mediocre losses.
Sure, you can argue that some of the losses looked bad. After all, there’s a reason why the Hoosiers are in the position they’re in (and why Mike Woodson won’t be back). But there aren’t anchors dragging down the teamsheet.
History says it’s about 50-50 whether a team like this makes the Big Dance. If they do, it’s usually as a double-digit seed. Sending Indiana to Dayton to play in the First Four is not out of the question, and it’s probably the most likely destination should the Hoosiers get selected.
But there’s an uphill road just to get to that point. Indiana’s remaining four games are all winnable, but this team hasn’t consistently taken care of its business. The next two games are against Penn State and Washington, the bottom two teams in the league. Then, it’s onto Oregon for Indiana’s last regular-season Q1 opportunity, followed by a potential bubble-elimination battle with Ohio State in its Big Ten finale.
A loss to anyone other than Oregon eliminates Indiana from at-large contention. If they can walk the tightrope, though, the Hoosiers could be in a solid spot.
Arkansas’ NCAA Tournament case
Like Indiana, the Razorbacks also managed to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, beating Missouri at Bud Walton Arena behind all five Arkansas starters scoring in double figures.
The case for Arkansas is very similar to the case for Indiana. However, Arkansas’ turnaround spans more than just the past week.
The Razorbacks are 5-4 over their last nine games with three Quad 1 wins. They’re now 4-9 in Q1 opportunities, including 3-7 against Q1A, making them one of only 27 teams with at least three such victories. Historically, teams with Arkansas’ resume and efficiency numbers (which are much higher than Indiana’s) have made the tournament in the 8-10 seed range.
“Everybody watching this team knows we’re getting better,” Calipari told reporters postgame. “Now, we just gotta finish. The greatest thing about this league: Every time you play, it’s a Quad 1 game. It’s just ridiculously hard. But these kids, they’re resilient. Let me say it again to the fans: They’re resilient.”
Finishing for Arkansas means a clean run through its last four regular-season games, none of which are against teams with winning records in SEC play.
Texas comes to town on Wednesday. Then, Arkansas travels to face South Carolina, the worst team in the conference. Vanderbilt and Mississippi State await in the final week, both offering opportunities for more Quad 1 wins.
If Arkansas can go 3-1 in that stretch, it may very well lock up a bid before the SEC Tournament starts.
The two most important games of Gonzaga’s season
Gonzaga isn’t generally considered a bubble team, but I mentioned them recently as being a team that could slide there. The Zags still rate really well on the analytics sites, but they lack quality wins and there are always precious few available in the WCC.
That is why Saturday’s home loss to Saint Mary’s puts the Bulldogs in an unfamiliar spot.
Both of Gonzaga’s Quad 1 victories came during the first two weeks of the season, but the team has routinely fallen short since then. Its offense isn’t as explosive without reliable, high-level perimeter scoring options. Its defense ranks outside the top 60 in Q1 games.
The good news: Gonzaga’s final two regular-season games are both Quad 1 opportunities, at Santa Clara on Tuesday and at San Francisco on Saturday. However, the rewards obviously come with a risk. Neither opponent is an NCAA Tournament team as of now, but both are top 65 on KenPom. Santa Clara also already beat Gonzaga at the Kennel.
“It’s a quick turnaround, and obviously we have some guys who are heartbroken in there,” Mark Few told reporters after the Saint Mary’s loss. “I’ve already started addressing that. You’ve got to let it go. We’ve got an extremely quick turnaround and end with two on the road. We play a team that’s red hot. … Get right and don’t dwell on this one.”
If the Bulldogs can add at least one more Q1 victory to their resume, they will be a lock. However, two losses would make them 2-8 in Q1 for the season, 6-10 against the top two quadrants, and an even 10-10 against the top three. Those records are indicative of a bubblicious resume.
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