The Rauf Report looks at why Jase Richardson’s play, Danny Wolf’s defense and Otega Oweh’s aggressiveness will be key for their respective teams.
It has been six seasons since Michigan State last reached the Final Four, the longest such drought the program has endured under Tom Izzo. As truly absurd as that stat is, this Spartans team is the best chance Izzo has had to return to the sport’s biggest stage in that time frame.
Wednesday’s victory over Maryland was Michigan State’s fourth consecutive win, all of which were Quad 1 games. Three of them were on the road, too, and qualified as Quad 1A games. The Spartans did not dominate Maryland the way they did against Illinois, Purdue and Michigan previously on this win streak, but it did win in the most entertaining way:
“I felt we deserved to win the game, I don’t think it was just a lucky shot at the end,” Izzo told reporters postgame. “I thought we played inspired basketball — good defensively, we moved the ball, we got Jase Richardson going.”
He added: “I don’t even know what to say about my team. We’re gritty and we keep on fighting, but we need to get better offensively in some areas if we’re gonna make some noise.”
Michigan State currently ranks 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, but ranks in the bottom half of the Big Ten in effective field goal percentage and turnover rate. However, that need for offense has led to more playing time for Richardson, and he looks like the solution that can take the Spartans to yet another level.
That is where we’ll start this Rauf Report.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
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Michigan State will go as far as Jase Richardson takes it
Richardson has shown flashes of being a high-end offensive threat all season long. However, his playing time largely remained limited due to inconsistent playmaking and defense.
There’s also the fact that Izzo prefers to play experienced players that he trusts, and freshmen often have to earn that before they see that playing time in East Lansing. Jeremy Fears, Coen Carr and Xavier Booker dealt with this a year ago, much to the chagrin of Michigan State fans.
But no one else on the roster has consistently provided that offensive boost the Spartans need — the freshman leads the team in offensive rating, ranking 34th nationally in that category. As a result, Izzo has put Richardson in the starting lineup for the last six games.
The results have been wonderful. On top of those high-level wins, Richardson has largely maintained his efficiency despite much higher usage:
“There’s no question that Jase Richardson has become a candidate for the All-Freshman [Team] and Freshman Player of the Year,” Izzo said earlier this week. “He’s done it in a lot of different areas.”
Those areas are where Michigan State needed improvement. One of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country, MSU has found a genuine catch-and-shoot weapon from beyond the arc in Richardson. That, combined with his ability to get into the lane and get to the foul line, has him popping up in the first round of various NBA mock drafts. He’s getting that kind of attention from defenses, too, which helps open things up for everyone else.
Things still aren’t perfect for Michigan State, but Richardson gives it a genuine offensive star — the kind that is often a prerequisite to long NCAA Tournament runs.
Danny Wolf’s defense is going to cost Michigan
It’s fitting that the Wolverines had a buzzer-beater of their own this week. You know, gotta match the Spartans in everything.
There are a handful of reasons why Michigan is in a great position in Dusty May’s first season, with Danny Wolf being perhaps the most obvious one. Wolf has emerged as a dynamic offensive force as May utilizes his passing and ball-handling skills, which are particularly advanced for a big man at this level. The 4-5 pick-and-roll with Wolf and Vlad Goldin has been Michigan’s not-so-secret weapon all season.
The Wolverines have needed Wolf to be the focal point on that end of the court, and he has delivered. However, opponents are starting to recognize — and exploit — his limitations on the defensive end.
The two-big lineup with Wolf and Goldin helped Michigan’s defense early because both are quality rim protectors. Having two guys like that on the floor can deter opponents from getting to the rim. But if you bring Wolf out to the perimeter, he simply does not have the foot speed to defend quicker matchups adequately, whether he is switching out onto a guard or a more athletic big man.
Recently, teams have exposed Wolf’s struggles with moving laterally, navigating screens or even getting out to contest shooters appropriately. Michigan State attacked this the most, but Rutgers also took advantage on a few occasions on Thursday, allowing Scarlet Knight stars Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey to get to their spots with ease.
As opponents continue to key on Wolf’s defensive issues, the Wolverines will have to keep adjusting. It’s no coincidence that Michigan is playing more zone recently, and Wolf is on the floor for virtually all those possessions. This will be something to monitor as we get into tournament play.
Otega Oweh gets too much blame for Kentucky’s issues
Kentucky has been up and down since its hot 12-2 start, going 7-7 in its last 14 games. Injuries are a big reason why — Kerr Kriisa, Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson have all missed significant time, while Andrew Carr has been limited — but on-court issues have arisen, too.
The Wildcats have been pretty bad defensively, though that has improved recently, and they haven’t been great on the glass. They have also been over-reliant on the 3-point shot at times, stalling the offense.
Some have started to blame Otega Oweh, as well, given that he has the highest usage rate on the team. He also has 70 more shot attempts than the next closest teammate (Robinson), despite not being the team’s most talented player.
Oweh’s usage is arguably a good thing for Kentucky, though. He’s been the only consistently aggressive Wildcat, and he’s the one that works to get the team out of its offensive ruts by attacking the rim. That aggressiveness allowed him to score in double figures in each of Kentucky’s first 26 games, a streak which finally ended in the weekend’s loss to Alabama.
Still, what Oweh did on Wednesday night truly showed his value. He scored a career-high 28 points against his former team, Oklahoma, including the final 18 points (!) for Kentucky. His aggressiveness, the same trait he’s sometimes criticized for, allowed him to take over and will the Wildcats to victory.
“I think a lot of him as a young man,” Oklahoma head coach Porter Moser said before the game. “He’s had a great year, a phenomenal year. To have that double-figure scoring (streak) as long as he did in this league? Phenomenal. He’s having an all-league type of year.”
Are you ready for a 3-bid ACC?
Let’s look at the bubble, since it will carry the national conversation for the next two weeks.
According to Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins, there’s a pretty clear cutoff between those who are safely in the field and those who are sweating down the stretch. Here’s how he broke it down earlier this week:
That “Double the deodorant” section are teams right on the cutline. Some — like Arkansas, Boise State, Cincinnati and Georgia — have helped their cases with quality wins recently. Others have only hurt themselves, and most of the ACC falls into this latter category.
Wake Forest has cratered over the last two weeks, suffering two Q3 losses (Florida State, Virginia) and another to a sub-100 team (NC State). Those results virtually eliminated Wake from serious at-large consideration. The same fate applies to Pitt, which is 4-10 in its last 14 games and has more Q3 losses (two) than Quad 1 wins (one).
Terrible Quad 1 records continue to doom SMU (0-5) and North Carolina (1-10), as well. That dynamic is especially troublesome when you look at how much the Selection Committee seemed to value Q1 wins in the Bracket Preview earlier this month.
The conference has been down recently but has still managed to send five teams to the Big Dance each of the past two seasons — and four different programs have represented the ACC over the past three Final Fours. This year’s trio of early locks (Clemson, Duke and Louisville) all have the potential to make long runs, too.
However, the ACC’s strength at the top does nothing for the resumes of the four teams on the bubble. Wake, Pitt, SMU and North Carolina have only hurt themselves in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised to see the ACC get its fewest bids ever.
Boise State has put itself in the NCAA Tournament conversation
As noted above, Boise State helped itself this week, grabbing a big win over Utah State on Wednesday. But that’s just the latest example of the Broncos raising their level of play over the last month.
Leon Rice’s squad had a few high points during non-conference play — beating Clemson and Saint Mary’s is nothing to sneeze at — but it also had a few low points, such as losing to Boston College and Washington State. A 5-4 start in the Mountain West wasn’t ideal, either.
But the Broncos have done a commendable job plugging the holes in their resume over the last month, picking up a not-insignificant number of quality wins while avoiding any more bad losses. Boise State relied on a defensive identity to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last three seasons, so it should come as no surprise that a defensive uptick has been the driving force of this surge.
“We’ve connected our defense where we’re in the gaps better,” Rice told reporters after the Utah State victory. “We understand it better.” That understanding is translating into improvements across the board:
Boise State does get something of a breather next week with its next two games coming against the Mountain West’s two worst teams, Fresno State and Air Force. Assuming the Broncos handle business there, a March 7 home game against Colorado State will be their last chance to pick up a notable win.
If Boise can go into the conference tournament with a 23-8 overall record — including a 15-5 mark in MW play and an 8-6 record against the top two quadrants — it’ll be tough to keep them from dancing.