After one of the most chaotic weekends in college basketball history, the latest Rauf Report looks at how Duke is on track to make a little history of its own.
What a weekend, huh?
Chaos reigned supreme, with eight of the top 14 teams in the AP poll losing — and no result being as notable as Arkansas’ 89-79 victory over Kentucky at Rupp Arena. No matter what College GameDay would have you believe, it was undoubtedly the biggest game of the day on a slate that included a Duke-UNC game. The reason for the hype: It was John Calipari’s much-anticipated return to Lexington.
After the victory, Calipari acknowledged what the win meant to the current Razorback players that followed him from Kentucky before admitting how good it felt for him, too.
Calipari’s return to Kentucky was the obvious pregame headline, but this Arkansas team also needed a win in the worst way after starting 1-6 in SEC play. It was the most aggressive and most successful the Razorbacks’ offense has been in conference play, and Kentucky couldn’t keep them out of the lane.
And yes, the Wildcats did not have Lamont Butler. Still, this was a reminder that Mark Pope’s squad has a long way to go defensively if it’s going to reach its March goals.
As important as that game and result was to both teams — and both fanbases — it only reinforced current feelings or concerns. But what new information can we glean from the weekend?
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Duke has chance to be a historically great team
The Blue Devils looked dominant in their win over North Carolina, which is how they’ve looked pretty much all season. Cooper Flagg may be the best college basketball player I’ve ever seen, as I detailed last month, and the individual talent on this roster is overwhelming.
But it’s what this Duke team is doing on both ends of the court, as a unit, that puts it in rarefied air.
The Blue Devils currently rank in the top five in KenPom adjusted offense and defense, something only seven other teams have ever done going into the NCAA Tournament. Those previous seven all fared incredibly well in the Big Dance, too:
Two of the three that didn’t win it — 2015 Kentucky and 2021 Gonzaga — were undefeated up until their losses in the tournament.
Duke is in historic company. And as good as Auburn has been, they don’t quite fall into this category.
Flagg has settled into his role as the guy, leading an offense that is humming thanks to improved spacing and 3-point shooting. He is having one of the best freshman seasons ever, while Kon Knueppel and Tyrese Proctor also average double figures. A few others (namely Isaiah Evans) have taken games over offensively, as well.
Defense is where this team is really special, though. Everyone on the roster is at least 6-5, and Duke has no problem switching its big men onto opposing guards. Sometimes, Khaman Maluach or Maliq Brown will start possessions defending the point guard, allowing everyone to be more aggressive and throwing a wrench into opposing gameplans.
The ACC is admittedly down, which plays into Duke’s 15 consecutive victories. At the same time, it might not matter who this team is facing. The Blue Devils are on pace to be one of the best groups in history.
Kansas is set for another first weekend exit
Kansas’ loss to Baylor was a concerning reminder of how the Jayhawks have struggled against top-tier teams since beating Duke in November. With a 2-6 record against top-50 competition since then, the Jayhawks haven’t maintained their high level of play on the biggest stages.
Despite ranking fifth in KenPom adjusted defense, KU continues to show vulnerabilities on that end. Kansas allowed Baylor to score 60 points in the second half and couldn’t get stops when it counted. The Jayhawks gave up a 19-point lead but recovered and led by double digits in the second half — before the Bears closed on a 26-7 run.
Meanwhile, Kansas has been incredibly inconsistent offensively. Hunter Dickinson remains a reliable force, but the team has struggled to find consistent scoring options beyond him. Their 33.9 percent shooting on 3-pointers ranks well below expectations for a title-contending team.
In high-pressure matchups, teams have keyed in on Dickinson and forced Kansas into difficult scoring situations. The lack of offensive balance has precipitated the Jayhawks’ defeats, as well as their propensity to turn the ball over, giving away easy possessions and opportunities.
Those issues allowed Houston to pull off its recent epic comeback in Allen Fieldhouse, and it played a role in Baylor’s second-half surge, too.
“Yeah, there’s some concern,” Self admitted. “It was two different types of games. The way the (Baylor) game ended was indicative of how the entire second half went. It wasn’t just a closeout.”
With the NCAA Tournament just around the corner, Kansas must get to work. KU spent the offseason trying to upgrade its offense, but they still lack reliable perimeter scoring options. Meanwhile, continued late-game defensive lapses could have the Jayhawks facing an first-weekend exit for the fifth time in the last six tournaments.
Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 streak is in serious jeopardy
Gonzaga has reached the Sweet 16 in nine consecutive NCAA Tournaments. While it’s usually a losing wager to bet against Mark Few and the Bulldogs in March, there is a very real chance the streak finally ends this year.
The Zags have been leaky defensively, particularly on the perimeter and their inability to keep opponents out of the lane. Gonzaga has overcome those issues in the past, but this year, they also have to wrestle with a lack of reliable offensive options.
Graham Ike is great down low, yet no one on the perimeter is consistently scoring at a high clip. Ryan Nembhard is a phenomenal point guard, but he’s a true pass-first point guard. The problem is that Gonzaga does not have the talent around him to fully capitalize on that.
Saturday’s loss to Saint Mary’s was the latest proof. The Bulldogs got down by double digits early, then fought back to take the lead in the second half, only to crumble down the stretch. That’s perhaps the biggest difference between this team and the other Gonzaga teams of the decade:
“We’re not making shots at the end of these games,” Few told reporters, “and we’re not getting stops at the end of these games. … The numbers aren’t good in the last four minutes.”
Gonzaga is now just 2-6 in Quad 1 games and 5-7 across the top two quadrants. Last week’s home victory over Oregon State is this group’s only Quad 1 or 2 victory since Thanksgiving, which is not a good sign.
The analytical profile for the Zags is still impressive — ninth on EvanMiya, 11th on KenPom, 12th in the NET and 17th on Torvik — so they aren’t quite on the bubble. However, that could change if Gonzaga suffers a bad loss this month.
Marquette has quietly been struggling for two months
Marquette’s loss to UConn Saturday dropped the Golden Eagles to second place in the Big East. It was a surprising result given the Huskies were without star freshman Liam McNeeley and Marquette was home.
That said, the loss also highlighted underlying problems with Shaka Smart’s squad that the team has been able to mask.
After a stellar November that put Marquette on the map nationally, this team has really been just OK. The losses are minimal, yet the Golden Eagles have had some really close calls against teams they should’ve handled easily. It was just a matter of time before they got burned.
“We can be much better,” Smart said after the game. “We need to be much better with our poise, our discipline in certain situations. It just wasn’t good enough.”
He later added: “We have to have a better understanding that beating Marquette is a quality win, and that there’s a level of desperation that the other team has when they play us. We didn’t match that urgency tonight. We’ve got to be ready to respond better.”
Part of the issue is that Kam Jones has gone from playing at a historically high level to simply being great. Of course, some regression was inevitable given his absurd efficiency levels in November.
Now, Marquette’s recent play is not because of Kam Jones. Far from it, in fact. But he simply is no longer able to mask the shortcomings on this roster alone, and his production hasn’t been replaced.
This is not to suggest any impending gloom and doom for Marquette. However, the Final Four dreams from November, are likely just that — dreams — if it can’t recapture some of that early-season magic.
Chase Hunter is the key to Clemson’s postseason success
Clemson has been surging up the ranks since December, thanks in part to notable victories over Kentucky, Wake Forest and Pitt.
The Tigers have been somewhat hidden in the ACC’s obscurity, but this team returned a lot of last season’s Elite Eight roster and hopes to get back there. Saturday’s win over NC State pushed Clemson to 10-1 in the ACC, just one game behind Duke (which comes to Littlejohn Coliseum next weekend).
If Clemson is going to upset Duke and/or make another NCAA Tournament run, Chase Hunter will be why. He’s one of the most dynamic players in the ACC, ranking in the league’s top 10 for offensive rating and true shooting percentage.
The 6-4, 202-pounder has also emerged as Clemson’s big-moment guy. He played that role against the Wolfpack, scoring six points in quick succession after NC State took the lead in the second half and then scoring the game’s final six points to seal the victory.
“He’s good,” NC State head coach Kevin Keatts said flatly. “You look at his numbers and how he affected the game, he was very efficient. … He’s an all-conference guy, probably a first team all-conference guy.”
The whole has often been greater than the sum of its parts for Brownell’s Clemson teams. That said, an individual talent like Hunter makes a difference when things get tight.
Brownell also credits backcourt mate Jaeden Zackery for allowing Hunter to be his best.
“[Chase’s] versatility with Jaeden makes those two guys one of the better backcourts in our league,” Brownell told Heat Check CBB. “Their competitiveness, age, poise, playmaking and then obviously Jaeden’s ability to guard, has taken some pressure off of Chase. … It has probably freed him up a little bit to be an even better offensive player.”
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