Houston’s late-game struggles and Oregon’s success highlight the biggest takeaways from the college basketball weekend in the latest Rauf Report.
Now that the dust has settled after Feast Week, it’s clear that chaos has reigned supreme during college basketball’s first month.
Seven of the teams ranked in the preseason top 10 have already suffered multiple losses, and three of the top four (Alabama, UConn, Houston) have three losses apiece. The destruction only continues as you go further down the rankings, and it has opened the door for others to take advantage.
Kentucky, Marquette and Florida were all ranked outside the top 17 in the preseason, but all now sit inside our top 10 at Heat Check CBB. Elsewhere in the polls, Oregon, Wisconsin and Memphis have gone from unranked to the top 15, while teams like Pitt, Arizona State, Dayton and Utah State are making impressions of their own.
What did we learn last week, and what should we pay attention to moving forward? We’ll open this Rauf Report with a look at why Houston’s trouble finishing games has led to a disappointing start.
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Houston has real late-game issues
The Cougars have been a surprising disappointment through the first month, dropping two games at the Players Era Festival to fall to 4-3 on the season.
The good news: All three losses came to good teams, and by very narrow margins. In total, Houston’s three losses have come by a combined 13 points, and two went to overtime.
The bad news: In all three losses, Houston had the lead late in regulation and couldn’t close the deal. The Cougars shot well below their normal level in crunch time while also turning the ball over more than usual at the end of those games.
- 3/9 shooting, 3 TOs in final 6:12 vs Auburn
- 1/11 shooting, 2 TOs in final 7:55 vs Alabama
- 3/12 shooting, 4 TOs in final 9:50 vs San Diego State
The lack of a true individual shot creator was one of my concerns with Kelvin Sampson’s squad at the start of the year. Without departed All-American Jamal Shead, nobody on the roster can consistently create good shots off the bounce.
Houston’s offense is more isolation-heavy than most, focusing on driving the lane and getting offensive rebounds. That works over the course of a game given the toughness, tenacity and aggression that Sampson’s teams typically exhibit. But as things get tighter late in close games and the pace slows down, the Cougars need to score in the half court, which requires the isolation scorer they lack.
Indeed, Houston’s percentages plummet in half court sets following a defensive stop: The Cougars are shooting only 33.3 percent from mid-range and 20.0 percent from 3-point range, per Hoop-Math. After opponents score, they are only 30.4 percent from mid-range overall. There’s no quick fix, either — it’s a personnel issue. LJ Cryer showed signs of being able to carry the load in his 30-point showing against Alabama, but he fell apart down the stretch in that game.
Houston’s record in close games will be something to monitor throughout the season.
Oregon belongs in the Big Ten title conversation
Few teams are trending up the way that Oregon is right now. The Ducks went to the Players Era Festival with an undefeated 5-0 mark, yet that felt somewhat shallow given that included an overtime win over Portland and three-point victory over Oregon State.
Nevertheless, Dana Altman’s squad went to Vegas and simply handled business, beating both Texas A&M and San Diego State by double-digits before coming back to beat Alabama in the championship game.
“Oregon is just a really good overall, well-rounded, sound basketball team,” Alabama head coach Nate Oats told reporters after the win. That’s probably the biggest thing we learned this week.
TJ Bamba, named MVP of the Players Era Festival, can be a go-to scorer offensively and defend wings at a high level. Nate Bittle has been a huge factor on the interior all season, helping provide balance to this perimeter-heavy roster. Jackson Shelstad hasn’t had the breakout season many were expecting, but he has shown flashes and has one of the nation’s best assist-to-turnover ratios. Keeshawn Barthelemy has been one of the best sixth men in the country, too.
All in all, the Ducks are one of just 10 teams nationally that rank in the top 31 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom, highlighting the balance Oats mentioned.
Oregon starts Big Ten play this week with matchups against USC and UCLA — RIP Pac-12 — and now does so as one of the league’s best teams. Every Big Ten team has shown some sort of flaw so far, and only the Ducks and Wisconsin still boast perfect records.
Navigating travel will be tricky, but the Ducks proved this week that they belong in the Big Ten’s top tier.
Dylan Harper is Rutgers’ best freshman
Staying in the Big Ten and in the Players Era Festival, no player made a statement quite like Dylan Harper. The freshman was outstanding across all three contests:
- 36 points, six rebounds, six assists against Notre Dame
- 37 points against Alabama
- 18 points, three rebounds, three assists against Texas A&M
Harper is the only freshman over the last 20 years to score at least 35 points in back-to-back games, and he did it every way possible. He showed the ability to score from all three levels and do so off the bounce, off the catch, cutting, in transition or in the halfcourt.
Fellow star freshman Ace Bailey has been getting a lot of national love because of his potential, but Harper cemented himself as Rutgers’ leader and best player in Las Vegas. Not only did he lead the way from a production standpoint, Harper also showed the vocal leadership of an upperclassman.
The discussion about Rutgers as a team is another topic altogether, as the Scarlet Knights have now lost three of their last four games. Still, Harper’s play had his team right it in down the stretch against both Alabama and Texas A&M.
Bailey will probably still get the headlines, yet Harper’s smooth play is what elevates Rutgers the most.
Never doubt Porter Moser
Remember when Oklahoma was picked to finish 15th in the 16-team SEC this preseason?
That prognostication looks foolish now. The Sooners went to the Bahamas and won the Battle 4 Atlantis, knocking off Providence, Arizona and Louisville in the process. Oklahoma’s offense scored 82 points in the win over Arizona, while the defense led the way against Louisville and limited the Cardinals to 64.
Perhaps because Porter Moser’s tenure in Norman has gotten off to a less than stellar start — he hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament yet, and another year of turnover left no proven high-level contributors on the roster — expectations were low coming into the season.
On the other hand, Moser has a knack for getting the most out of his teams. Senior Jalon Moore has taken a huge step forward, averaging a team-leading 18.4 points, including back-to-back 24-point performances in Atlantis. He’s one of five Sooners (Duke Miles, Brycen Goodine, Luke Northweather, Dayton Forsythe) shooting at least 40 percent from 3-point range, a huge key for this team.
However, the true difference maker may be point guard Jeremiah Fears. He was a late reclass and joined Oklahoma this summer. Now, the would-be high school senior is averaging 16.9 points, 4.6 assists and 2.6 steals for an SEC team.
“Jeremiah is beyond his years,” Moser told reporters after Fears’ 26-point day against Arizona. “I always said he came in humble, he came in not entitled, and came in trying to learn. I think it bothered him a lot that he had eight turnovers [against Providence].”
Fears and Kobe Elvis give Oklahoma two dynamite playmakers, and with the shooters surrounding them, the Sooners have become a tough team to handle.
We’ll see if they can handle the gauntlet of SEC play, but Oklahoma is playing like a Top 25 squad.
Pitt — not UNC — is the ACC’s second-best team
Duke and North Carolina were the favorites to run away with the ACC this season, both because of how good they were projected to be and how poor the rest of the conference looked. However, the Tar Heels’ limitations were on full display in Maui.
Defensively, UNC struggles to defend the perimeter due to their small guards, and Jalen Washington has not proven to be the rim protector that Armando Bacot was. Smaller lineups have the Heels struggling on the glass, too, and five-star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell have been inconsistent.
Their struggles have opened the door for another team to potentially be Duke’s biggest challenger, and Pitt is poised to take advantage.
The Panthers have surged to No. 13 in KenPom thanks to blowout wins over good West Virginia and LSU teams, and they went to Columbus and beat Ohio State in overtime on Friday. Pittsburgh’s lone loss came by six to undefeated Wisconsin, in a game the Panthers led by as many as 14 points.
Ishmael Leggett (18.4 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Jaland Lowe (16.6 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.5 apg) form perhaps the most underrated backcourt in the country, helping guide a top-15 offense.
While this team hasn’t been tested against elite competition yet, Pitt beat rival West Virginia by 24 — and the Mountaineers beat both Gonzaga and Arizona last week. The transitive property only goes so far in college basketball, though. Wednesday’s game against Mississippi State will be another chance for the Panthers to prove that they belong in the conversation as one of the best teams in the country.