Is Saint Mary’s for real? Can we trust Illinois? What can we make of Georgia’s recent slide? We answer those questions and more in the latest Rauf Report.
The SEC hasn’t just been the most dominant conference in college basketball this season – it has also been perhaps the most exciting. That was on full display on Wednesday night when Florida, Texas A&M and Arkansas all pulled off last second victories.
The first two of those results were significant because both the Gators and Aggies were on the road and those narrow victories kept both firmly in the conference title hunt. Arkansas’ win over Georgia mattered because it was the first SEC win for the Razorbacks under John Calipari, which came just hours after it learned star freshman Boogie Fland would miss the rest of the season.
It was a win that the program desperately needed – but don’t mistake that for thinking a victory suddenly “fixes” Arkansas or that a turnaround is coming.
The Razorbacks shot 34 free throws in that game against Georgia including 25 in the second half, a blistering 85.3 percent clip. Everything else remained a struggle, as Arkansas shot 31.0 percent from the floor and 13.0 percent from 3-point range. Take away their best and most consistent offensive player and I don’t expect things to suddenly improve drastically. Things won’t get any easier soon, either, as five of the team’s first seven games in February come against teams currently ranked in the AP top 25.
Plus, it helps that Georgia may not be as good as we thought following its victory over Kentucky. That’s where we’ll start this Rauf Report:
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Was Georgia a one-hit wonder?
Georgia found itself ranked for the first time since the 2010-11 season just last week after beating both Kentucky and Oklahoma, and it looked like head coach Mike White was set to have his squad compete with the top teams in the SEC.
The Bulldogs have not won since, however, dropping three games in a row. Defeats to Tennessee and Auburn are certainly excusable given the strength of those programs, but the loss to Arkansas warrants a further look at Georgia’s complete resume.
Overall, the complete resume is somewhat lacking. The Bulldogs are just 6-5 against Quads 1, 2 and 3 combined, but are a perfect 8-0 in Q4 games. Their only Q1 wins are the Kentucky victory and then a 3-point win over St. John’s in November in the Bahamas.
In those games against better teams – matchups vs. top 100 opponents – Georgia’s offense takes a significant step back.
Things could get worse for Georgia quickly, too. Two of their next three games are on the road against Florida and Alabama. The Bulldogs are listed as double-digit underdogs in both. In fact, seven of their next nine games are against teams currently ranked in the AP top 25, and four of those seven are on the road.
If Georgia’s offense rounds into form, the opportunity is there for the Bulldogs to pick up some massive resume-boosting wins. But that unit has been dreadful since the Kentucky win and has yet to repeat that caliber of performance against quality competition.
If it doesn’t round into form, the Bulldogs could be looking at a sharp decline out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
What to make of St. John’s
I mentioned Georgia’s victory over St. John’s, which is obviously a quality win for the Bulldogs given the way the Red Storm have been playing since. Rick Pitino’s squad is 12-1 since that Georgia loss, and that only loss was by one point at Creighton.
The Johnnies are now 17-3 overall and sit alone in first place atop the Big East. St. John’s was hoping for this kind of season when it hired Pitino.
Yet, at the same time, this team doesn’t feel like one that’s sitting pretty quite yet.
For starters, St. John’s lacks quality wins. It only has one Quad 1 victory on the season, a big reason why it’s only a 7-seed in Heat Check CBB bracketologist Lukas Harkins’ most recent projections.
The Red Storm have also struggled mightily on the offensive end — they are ranked 111th in adjusted offensive efficiency against top-50 opponents and are shooting below 30 percent from 3-point range on the season. Yet they’ve also pulled off a handful of double-digit comebacks and won games it shouldn’t have because of the individual play of guys like RJ Luis and Zuby Ejiofor.
The frequency at which St. John’s wins despite the lack of shooting is almost Houston-ish. It’s good on the glass and plays high-level defense, too, but lacks the analytical metrics to offset the lack of quality wins.
This is a very good team because it keep finding ways to win, yet explaining exactly why the Red Storm deserve to be considered among the elite is a relatively hard chore. It’s rare to find those conundrums in college basketball without expecting some form of regression to come.
If the Johnnies do regress, it will likely be over the next two weeks when the Red Storm face Georgetown on the road, host Marquette and then travel to Storrs and Villanova.
Illinois is struggling against at-large caliber competition
Illinois is perhaps the most polarizing team in the country. Brad Underwood’s squad has flashed immense upside and showed a ceiling that mirrors that of the top teams in the country. At the same time, Thursday’s loss to Maryland is now the Illini’s third loss in their last four games as they continue to struggle with consistency.
That 21-point drubbing at the hands of Kevin Willard’s squad is the most alarming of the six defeats Illinois has suffered. A handful have been one-possession games and/or against some of the nation’s elite, which are excusable. There’s also the loss to USC but, as I mentioned in a recent Rauf Report, the Trojans may be turning things around.
Illinois simply had nothing for Maryland. Tomislav Ivisic wasn’t available and the Terps made it a point to pound Illinois inside, but that strategy wouldn’t have changed much even if Ivisic played.
Rather, this performance is more indicative of who the Illini have been whenever they’ve played top-50 opponents.
In those eight games, the Illini are slightly worse offensively, but the defense has been significantly worse. They are also much worse on the glass, showing that interior strength isn’t, well, a strength even with Ivisic. This could hinder the Illini in the NCAA Tournament but, more pressingly, in the Big Ten — nine of their remaining 12 games are against top-50 competition.
It is tantalizing to view Illinois through rose-colored glasses because we’ve seen them smash other really good teams. Kasparas Jakucionis is also one of the most productive and entertaining players in the country.
But the reality is that Illinois has been far closer to the worse version of itself more often than not whenever it is tested.
Trying to gauge Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament resume
Ohio State’s shocking victory over Purdue at Mackey Arena on Wednesday night added another feather to one of the nation’s more polarizing resumes.
On one hand, the Buckeyes have three Quad 1 victories that are elite — neutral court vs. Texas, neutral court vs. Kentucky and at Purdue. They also don’t have any losses outside the top two quadrants, and four losses have been by a single possession.
But on the other hand, Jake Diebler’s squad has lost most of the toss-up games it has played against similar opponents, which is significantly hurting its resume metrics.
When looking at the most similar tournament resumes, teams in Ohio State’s situation almost always miss the tournament. That 2018 Arizona State team was an unexpected addition to the Big Dance and lost in the First Four.
This simply means that the Buckeyes won’t get into the Big Dance on the back of those three victories alone. There is more work to be done, and there’s reason to believe Ohio State can get there.
Its analytical metrics are much more indicative of an NCAA Tournament-caliber team that can win some of those tightly contested matchups that it has lost previously (unsurprisingly, Ohio State is 302nd in luck, per KenPom). There’s also plenty of opportunity to add to the list of quality wins given the schedule ahead.
But the talking point that this is a certified NCAA Tournament-caliber team right now is premature — the Buckeyes still need to string some wins together.
We need to talk about Saint Mary’s
Saint Mary’s is sitting pretty atop the WCC with a two-game lead over both Gonzaga and Santa Clara. It also ranks highly on KenPom (25th in the country), EvanMiya (27th) and Torvik (37th), confirming the overall strength of this roster. Since the start of WCC play on Dec. 28, Randy Bennett’s squad ranks as the seventh-best team in the country on T-Rank.
Resume-wise, the Gaels have quality victories away from home against Nebraska, USC and Utah, and none of their three losses are bad.
So, why isn’t Saint Mary’s getting more love nationally?
Well, the Gaels have yet to play a Quad 1 game and while they have been dominant in league play, it has been against the teams in the bottom half of the league. Those wins I mentioned a second ago are nice but aren’t real needle-movers or attention-grabbers.
That opportunity is now here for this team. Thursday night’s game against San Francisco started a stretch in which Saint Mary’s will play eight straight games against KenPom top-100 opponents, including four Q1 and three Q2 opportunities, and it won in convincing fashion.
Last season’s script followed a similar path. Saint Mary’s beat up on the lesser teams it played but was mediocre against top-100 competition due to a lack of offensive creativity. Its inflated metrics helped it land a 5-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and ultimately those struggles against quality teams led to a first-round upset against Grand Canyon.
This stretch is a chance for this season’s team to prove it is different – and the Gaels passed the first test against the Dons in a big way.
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