Weekends like the one we just had are why we love college basketball.
If you wanted upsets, there were plenty of those (shoutout to Vanderbilt in particular). If you wanted narrow escapes, Duke and UNC had you covered. Blowouts and dominant performances happened, too.
Yet nothing was as impressive as Houston’s comeback victory over Kansas in Lawrence.
The Jayhawks led by four points with 17 seconds left in regulation only to see the Cougars force overtime. Then, in the extra session, Kansas led by six in the closing seconds before this happened:
Houston ended up pulling away and winning in the second overtime, capping one of the most unlikely comebacks in the sport’s history.
“We didn’t execute,” Kansas head coach Bill Self said postgame. “Put it on me. We got a way to get [the ball] in that we practice every day … but we didn’t make a great effort to get open and didn’t call the timeout when we had one.”
Self added: “We had numerous opportunities. We played really well. Kids fought their ass off and obviously didn’t make plays when it counted the most. And [Houston] made every one.”
As good as Houston has been this season, it has not found success against teams at or near the top of the sport. This was only the Cougars’ second Quad 1 victory of the season, but it helps solidify their lofty analytical rankings (No. 1 on EvanMiya and Torvik, No. 3 on KenPom).
Other teams were not as lucky.
We’ll start this Rauf Report with a look at the Tennessee offense, which struggled against Auburn in what is becoming a troubling trend for the Vols.
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Tennessee’s offense is sputtering
Tennessee’s loss to Auburn on Saturday night was the team’s third loss in its last six games, dropping the Vols to 4-3 in SEC play. None of those losses look bad on its resume, yet the cause of those losses is potentially problematic.
The Volunteers have historically struggled offensively under Rick Barnes and have often lacked individual shot creators and quality shooting, which leads to sluggish performances on that end. It’s a defense-first program and will be as long as Barnes is on the sideline.
However, last year’s team was the best of Barnes’ tenure, thanks to a more dynamic offense driven by Dalton Knecht. This offseason, Tennessee tried to get even more dynamic with offensive-focused portal additions: Chaz Lanier was brought in to fill Knecht’s role, while Igor Milicic and Darlinstone Dubar would help the overall unit.
Dubar’s role on the team has been minor, but Lanier and Milicic helped Tennessee become one of the nation’s best offenses through December. That changed once the Vols entered SEC play.
Since conference play began in January, Tennessee ranks:
- 77th in adjusted offensive efficiency
- 334th in effective field goal percentage
- 348th in 2-point shooting percentage
- 253rd in 3-point shooting percentage
- 256th in free throw rate
- 244th in turnover rate
Tennessee is 10th in the SEC in AdjO but dead last in 2-point shooting and next-to-last in free throw rate. Its performance against Auburn — 31.5 percent shooting, 10 assists to 12 turnovers — dragged those numbers down further.
However, Barnes isn’t overly concerned.
“I just thought that we came in and battled the No. 1-ranked team in the country and took it down to the last possession with a chance to win it,” Barnes said postgame.
While Barnes may not be worried, Tennessee’ offensive issues are becoming cause for concern.
Oregon has had a rough January
The ’cause for concern’ tag can also be applied to Dana Altman’s Oregon Ducks.
Their 12-1 start to the season included a Player’s Era Festival title and five Quad 1 wins. Heck, the only loss in that stretch came at the buzzer to a solid UCLA group. As a result, Oregon was being discussed as a favorite to win the Big Ten and get a high seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Things have fallen apart in January, however. The Ducks are 4-3 this month, capped by Saturday’s disappointing loss at Minnesota in which they trailed by 18 points in the first 7:19 of game action.
Oregon’s defense has virtually disappeared this month, going from one of the nation’s best units in non-conference play to one of the worst in the Big Ten. The Ducks have also become one of the league’s worst rebounding teams, even though that was a strength during the season’s first two months.
The Ducks are still sitting pretty in the NCAA Tournament picture — currently projected as a No. 4 seed on BracketMatrix — but are out of the Big Ten title race and likely out of the AP Top 25.
The schedule does them no favors, either: Five of Oregon’s next eight games are against Quad 1 competition, starting with Thursday’s return game at UCLA. The Ducks have to get back on track defensively if they want to remain well positioned. Otherwise, the losses could start stacking up and send Oregon tumbling down the seed lines.
Gillespie is raising Maryland’s ceiling
Maryland faced a similar dilemma following its Jan. 5 loss to Oregon, which dropped the Terps to just 1-3 in league play with an intimidating slate of games ahead. Perhaps that’s just life in the Big Ten.
The Terrapins have answered the call, however, winning five of their last six games. The lone loss came by two in overtime at Northwestern, and Maryland followed that up with three high level victories — including back-to-back Quad 1 road victories over Illinois and Indiana.
Maryland’s dynamic big man duo of Derik Queen and Julian Reese garner much of the headlines and media attention, and rightfully so. Queen is one of the most dynamic freshmen in the country, and Reese has been an All-Big Ten caliber player for years now.
But this stretch doesn’t happen without Maryland’s improved guard play.
Point guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie was excellent on Sunday, recording 18 points and nine assists in the win over Indiana. That kind of stat line has become par for the course for Gillespie. He is averaging 18.5 points and 6.2 assists over the last six games while shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 47.8 percent on 3s.
Kevin Willard was quick to point out after the Illinois victory that this is the kind of player Gillespie has been all season. That is reflected in his on/off splits, per Hoop-Explorer:
It’s well established that quality guard play wins games in the NCAA Tournament. Maryland clearly has that, even if Gillespie has flown largely under-the-radar this season. In fact, he might be the most underrated guard in the nation. Regardless, his play — combined with that big man duo — has turned the Terrapins into an extremely dangerous bunch.
Iowa State’s ability to close games is unmatched
At 17-2 with a litany of high-quality wins, Iowa State is an extremely dangerous bunch. Still, the Cyclones sometimes find themselves in games that are much closer than expected.
Take Saturday’s game at Arizona State: The Sun Devils led for a majority of the game but lost by 15 points because of the way Iowa State turned it on late in the game. The Cyclones closed on a 19-3 run over the final 5:14, which head coach TJ Otzelberger credited to his team’s defense.
“Defensively, we were able to get stops,” Otzelberger said postgame. “We felt like we were better defensively playing Joshua [Jefferson] at the 5 and switching. Our guys had great intent to guard the basketball late, which led to us getting stops, and we ended the game on a good run.”
These late-game surges have become a trend for the Cyclones. In addition to the Arizona State win, ISU has engineered five more late-game runs to put away opponents:
- 12-2 run in final 2:54 against Kansas
- 15-11 run in final 5:20 against Texas Tech
- 15-6 run in final 4:44 against Colorado
- 33-16 run in final 10:02 against Iowa
- 20-9 run in final 8:03 against Marquette
There is a lot to like about this Iowa State team, particular with Curtis Jones emerging as a Big 12 Player of the Year and All-America candidate. But the ability to dominate late in games against good competition is something only the best teams in the country can do. It’s a consistent hallmark of teams that make long runs in the NCAA Tournament.
That should bode well for a program looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1944.
Don’t forget about McNeese
McNeese entered the season with sky-high expectations, but those were mostly abandoned following a 5-5 start that included losses to South Dakota State, Liberty and Santa Clara along with two victories over non-Division I programs.
But head coach Will Wade’s squad has turned a corner of late and has won 10 games in a row. That isn’t entirely unexpected given how the Cowboys were projected to perform in conference play, yet this group is clearly outpacing even those lofty projections.
McNeese ranks 25th nationally in adjusted efficiency margin since conference play began, per Bart Torvik, and now ranks in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
Defense was never a problem with this talented group, even against the best teams they’ve faced. The Cowboys are No. 11 in adjusted defensive efficiency against top-50 opponents (Alabama, Mississippi State) and rank No. 35 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games.
The offense is what let this team down, but that is trending in the right direction. The Cowboys’ adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 41st in the last 10 games, including a 35.1 percent clip from 3-point range.
McNeese now enters the toughest test of their conference slate on deck — a road game at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, a team that really pushed Purdue in the season opener.
“We’ve done what we need to do at home,” Wade said on Gator 99.5 FM. “Now we go on a really, really tough road trip, our toughest road swing of the year, which will really define how we are in conference.”
If McNeese can handle business against the Islanders, the Cowboys will firmly re-enter the conversation as perhaps the best team in the country among the one-bid leagues.
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