As conference play kicks off, the Rauf Report returns with a look at how Marquette’s Kam Jones and Villanova’s Eric Dixon are having historic seasons in the Big East.
Welcome back to the Rauf Report! We took a short hiatus to enjoy some family time around the holidays, but we’re back as the college basketball calendar enters the most wonderful time of the year.
We’ve now crossed into the heart of conference play for everyone — enough of these two-game teases in early December. Instead, we can embrace the steady routine of charming nightly slates and salacious Saturdays full of high-profile matchups between now and the end of March.
A lot has happened while the Report has been on break, but we’re back to look at some of the sport’s biggest trends from the past weekend (and perhaps a little beyond).
We’ll get started with a look at the National Player of the Year race, which many assume has already been wrapped up by Auburn big man Johni Broome. However, Marquette’s Kam Jones is doing everything in his power to ensure it remains a two-man race.
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Kam Jones is closer to Johni Broome than you think
Broome and Auburn have been the sport’s biggest story through the first two months of the season. The Tigers look like the best team in the country, despite what the AP poll may say, and Broome is putting up numbers that rival those of two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey.
But to assume Broome is running away with the award is to completely disregard Kam Jones’ season.
Jones has seamlessly stepped into the lead guard role for Marquette after Tyler Kolek’s departure. He has put up similar playmaking numbers (41.7 assist rate to Kolek’s 42.1) while maintaining efficient shooting splits on massive usage.
“Having an elite passer like Tyler for three seasons set a standard within our team,” head coach Shaka Smart told Ben Steele of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “It positively impacts the others, even if they can’t replicate his style. Kam brings his flair to the passing game, reminiscent of Tyler, while balancing his aggression as a scorer. It’s crucial because he’s a genuine scoring threat.”
Jones putting up impressive numbers
That balance is a major reason why Jones is having the success he is. So far this season, he is
- 1 of 16 players averaging at least 20 points (20.3)
- 1 of 12 players averaging at least 6.5 assists (6.5)
And he’s the only one currently doing both — to go along with 5.0 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game.
Jones’ season is even more impressive when looking at his advanced statistics.
The only player who can match Jones’ combination of offensive rating (128.2), assist rate (41.7) and effective field goal percentage (57.4) is former Michigan State point guard Cassius Winston, who led the Spartans to the 2018 Final Four. However, Winston didn’t come close to matching Jones’ usage, BPM, steal rate or turnover rate in that season.
Simply put, Kam Jones is doing things that no other college basketball player has ever done.
Winning National Player of the Year is about more than that, though. After all, Trae Young is the only men’s player to lead the country in both points and assists, yet he did not win the award because his team didn’t win enough.
Marquette is winning right now, though, and must continue to do so. Jones must also perform on the biggest stages, which will likely be his team’s two games against UConn and in the Big East Tournament.
If he does that, and if Auburn falters a little bit in a loaded SEC, Jones has more than just a chance.
Eric Dixon’s historic season is going unnoticed
Villanova’s Eric Dixon is also putting up historic numbers in the Big East. Unfortunately, his play is largely going unnoticed because the Wildcats, well, kind of stink.
However, they have rebounded from a dreadful 3-4 start to win seven of their last game games. Dixon has been the biggest reason why. He’s the country’s leading scorer (25.9 ppg) while shooting 53.4 percent from the field and an eye-popping 49.0 percent from 3-point range. In fact, he’s the second-best 3-point shooter in the nation with at least 80 attempts from beyond the arc, trailing only Kentucky’s Koby Brea.
The 6-8, 265-pounder has been a really good player throughout the entirety of his five years at Villanova. Still, he has somehow managed to up his scoring average by nearly 10 points from a season ago while becoming more efficient. Part of that is the fact he’s not playing center nearly as many minutes, which allows him to play more on the perimeter and frees him from true big-man duties.
The results have been phenomenal to his point. Dixon leads the nation in KenPom Game MVPs, Points over Replacement Per Game (PRPG) and is third in EvanMiya’s OBPR, a metric designed to measure a player’s overall offensive impact.
Villanova’s schedule gets substantially tougher as it continues into Big East play — a date with UConn looms on Wednesday — but Dixon’s play gives Kyle Neptune’s squad a fighting chance.
How good is St. John’s?
Elsewhere in the Big East, St. John’s has not exactly lived up to expectations. Yes, the Red Storm have a fine record at 12-3 and are sitting at 3-1 in the Big East behind UConn, Marquette and (surprisingly!) Georgetown.
However, this St. John’s team has been somewhat underwhelming. Despite an influx of talent, Rick Pitino’s squad has rarely played like a top-25 team.
Just look at their last three Big East games. A two-point victory over a Providence team that has only won two of its last eight games. A loss to a shorthanded Creighton team. A comeback victory over a Butler team that has lost seven games in a row.
Two narrow defeats of sub-.500 teams and a loss. That’s not good!
St. John’s has largely benefitted from beating up the worst teams on its schedule, while the Johnnies have struggled against better opponents.
After the game against Butler, Pitino shed some light on the issue.
“The work ethic is great, but the [lack of] listening is really bothering me,” he told reporters. “They hear what you’re saying, but they don’t listen to scouting reports, and these coaches are working hours upon hours upon hours breaking down film.”
The good news is that St. John’s may have some time to course-correct. KenPom projects SJU to win every game for the rest of the month going into back-to-back games against Marquette and UConn in early February. Those games will test the Red Storm’s ceiling, yet its floor — and potential NCAA Tournament resume — will be evaluated based on how they perform in the next seven games.
Return of the Willard Swoon?
Kevin Willard is facing similar questions with his Maryland team. The Terrapins looked like a top breakout team recently, with an 11-2 mark featuring close losses to Marquette and Purdue. Coupled with dominant performances against lesser competition, there was a compelling case for Maryland as a Big Ten favorite.
Still, it’s not ideal when a team’s resume leads with “near wins” as opposed to actual wins.
The Terps dropped both games of their west coast road trip this weekend, falling to a poor Washington team and a suddenly-sliding Oregon. Maryland now sits at 1-3 in the Big Ten, turning its league title chase into a significant uphill climb.
And it may be the start of a trend that has plagued Willard throughout his career.
Traditionally, Willard’s teams have gotten off to hot starts before suddenly faltering in January. Some of his teams have rebounded well, but others didn’t recover:
- 2015-16: Started 12-2, then went 5-5
- 2016-17: Started 10-2, then went 6-8
- 2017-18: Started 14-2, then went 3-7
- 2018-19: Started 11-3, then went 5-9
- 2019-20: Started 16-4, then went 5-5
- 2020-21: Started 8-4, then went 6-9
- 2021-22: Started 9-1, then went 6-8
- 2022-23: Started 8-0, then went 4-7
- 2023-24: Started 9-4, then went 7-13
- 2024-25: Started 11-2, 0-2 since
I wrote about this phenomenon in a Rauf Report over two years ago and dubbed it the #WillardSwoon. That swoon may already be underway.
The good news: Maryland plays three of its next four games at home, which should make it easier to get back on track. But if the Terps go 2-2 (or worse) against UCLA, Minnesota, Northwestern and Nebraska, the #WillardSwoon will officially be in full effect.
Just how good is Vanderbilt? We’re about to find out!
Another huge surprise has been Vanderbilt, who moved to 13-1 on the season after beating LSU on the road on Saturday. Michigan State transfer AJ Hoggard led five players in double figures with 17 points, and he took over down the stretch to preserve victory for the Commodores.
Head coach Mark Byington has done an incredible job in Year 1, putting together one of the nation’s most efficient offenses. Vandy has scored at least 80 points in 11 of its 14 games. This group finishes incredibly well at the rim, knows how to attack the paint and doesn’t settle for contested looks from the perimeter.
It also helps that this veteran backcourt doesn’t turn the ball over (third nationally in turnover rate, per KenPom) while also forcing many themselves (third in steal rate). When your defense excels at generating easy baskets for your offense — and when your offense doesn’t give your opponent that same benefit — it bodes well for success.
Vanderbilt’s terrific start looks to be legit, too. The team’s three best victories — Nevada, TCU and LSU — all came away from Nashville. That being said, the Commodores only have one Quad 1 victory and are just 3-1 against the top two quadrants. They need more high-end victories to solidify themselves as an NCAA Tournament team.
That’s why Tuesday’s game against Mississippi State at Memorial Gym is incredibly important and could be the game of the week.
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