The latest Rauf Report breaks down five mid-major teams worth following, as each could become this season’s Cinderella surprise.
Writing these columns is typically the hardest this time of year. Don’t get me wrong — this is the absolute best time of year. But each time I write one of these, I try to pick topics that aren’t yet mainstream talking points, or I look at trends that could dictate the rest of the season.
At this point, there isn’t any more runway to navigate. Teams largely are who they are at this point, with notable exceptions of teams getting historically hot, a la NC State last season. But there aren’t many needle-movers left to discuss.
So, given the fact conference tournaments started Sunday night and nine will be underway by the end of the week, I’m devoting this Rauf Report to the mid-majors you need to watch during Champ Week.
I’m staying away from the ‘household’ mid-major names that get brought up all the time. At this point, we know Drake as an at-large case and that McNeese is dangerous with Will Wade at the helm.
Who else should have your attention?
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
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UC San Diego Tritons
The case for UC San Diego is simple. The Tritons are the highest ranked team from a traditional one-bid league on the analytics sites, checking in at No. 35 on KenPom and No. 44 on both EvanMiya and Torvik. They’re also the only team from a traditional one-bid league that ranks in the top-50 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom.
Head coach Eric Olen has built a dynamic, balanced roster that has proven it can compete against and beat the best teams on its schedule. The Tritons have two Quad 1 victories and are 4-2 against the top two quadrants, owning top-100 victories over Utah State, UC Irvine and CSUN. They also nearly upset San Diego State in their season opener, losing at Viejas Arena by five.
Four different players average at least 10.4 points for UC San Diego, headlined by Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones. The New Zealander leads the team in scoring (19.8 ppg), rebounds (5.3 rpg) and assists (3.4 apg) while ranking among the nation’s leaders in free throw rate, true shooting percentage and usage rate.
Hayden Gray, another one of those double-digit scorers, spearheads the defense and leads the nation in steal rate (6.0). He and Chris Howell (33rd nationally in steal rate) combine to form an elite perimeter duo with the size (6-4 and 6-6, respectively) to handle power conference opponents.
The Tritons do have an at-large case in their first year of postseason eligibility, but the odds are slim given the Q3 and Q4 losses on their resume. If they do go dancing, however, UC San Diego can go blow-for-blow with just about anyone.
High Point Panthers
High Point might be my favorite team from this group. The Panthers have the nation’s second-longest win streak with 11 consecutive victories, a top-25 offense, and a veteran group hoping to avoid a repeat of last season’s disappointment in March.
Head coach Alan Huss’ squad won the Big South regular-season title for the second year in a row and returned the core from last year’s team that was upset by Longwood in the Big South semifinals. This season’s group, however, is much more balanced and efficient.
Kezza Giffa, D’Maurian Williams and Kimani Hamilton all average at least 13.8 points, and another five players average between 8.5 and 5.2 ppg. Notably, Williams has missed the last three games due to injury but should be back for the Big South Tournament.
This is another team with power conference size because, well, it has a lot of power conference transfers on the roster.
Williams played two seasons at Texas Tech before joining the Panthers in the offseason. Hamilton started his career at Mississippi State. Backup point guard Bobby Pettiford played his first two college seasons for Kansas. Abdoulaye Thiam has spent three seasons with High Point but began his career as a reserve for Minnesota.
The downside for High Point is its defense, which ranks 224th nationally, per KenPom. However, that unit has improved drastically during this win streak as seven-foot sophomore Juslin Bodo Bodo has made more of an impact. Bodo Bodo, the Big South Defensive Player of the Year last season, serves as an elite rim protector while also ranking top five nationally in rebounding rate.
As he has become more consistent, so has High Point — allowing this group to peak at the right time.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
I’ve talked about Arkansas State in a couple of past Rauf Reports, so their inclusion on this list shouldn’t be a surprise. The Red Wolves would have much more national notoriety if it weren’t for going 1-4 in a five-game stretch at the start of the month. The result: A four-way split of the Sun Belt regular-season title, rather than Arkansas State winning it outright.
Head coach Bryan Hodgson’s squad did win its last three games to clinch that share of the program’s first conference title since 1998, and they’re hoping to make the Big Dance for the first time since 1999. To do so, Hodgson must dive into the issues that plagued his team earlier in the month.
“We get some time off, get a little reboot,” Hodgson told the EAB Red Wolves Sports Network after Friday’s victory. “We get to take a deep dive into some things that we can work on, and we’re going to do that. Control what we can control, and we’ll be ready when we get down to Pensacola.”
Those issues came largely on the offensive end. The Red Wolves shot below 30 percent from 3-point range during that five-game stretch, which is not a good recipe for teams that shoot as many shots from deep as A-State does. Also worth noting: Those four losses came by a combined 11 points, showing how close all those games were.
At their best, Arkansas State has beaten Memphis by double digits and nearly knocked off Alabama, with both games played on the road. This is a deep team with a lot of power conference experience and size. Now that big man Izaiyah Nelson is hitting his stride, there’s a lot of upside here.
North Dakota State Bison
We also need to talk about North Dakota State. The Bison shoot more 3-pointers than anyone in the country — and thanks to making nearly 40 percent of them, they also lead the nation in effective field goal percentage. That offense has propelled head coach Dave Richman’s squad to road victories over Santa Clara and Butler.
A lot of what North Dakota State wants to do offensively runs through 6-10 forward Jacksen Moni. One of the most unique players in the country, Moni leads the Bison in both scoring (20.6 ppg) and assists (3.7 apg) while shooting over 50 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from long range. He is the only player in the country that boasts that kind of assist rate and true shooting percentage, showing just how much of a matchup problem he can be for opponents.
Three other players also average double figures, headlined by Jacari White (17.1 ppg), the most dynamic guard on the roster.
The wild card, of course, is NDSU’s defense. It ranks outside the top 300 nationally over the last month, per Torvik, and is one of the worst in the Summit League. That shooting and those matchup problems give the Bison a chance to upset anyone and rip off a March run that goes well beyond the Summit League Tournament — but that defense could also cause them to lose to South Dakota in its first game on Friday.
Central Connecticut State Blue Devils
Looking for the most dangerous 16-seed in the NCAA Tournament? If Central Connecticut can handle business in the NEC Tournament, the Blue Devils may very well be that team.
Head coach Patrick Sellers’ squad boasts the No. 85 defense in the country, per KenPom, and owns the nation’s longest win streak at 12 games. CCSU has also proven it can beat high-level competition having knocked off both Saint Joseph’s and UMass during nonconference play. It also pushed both Providence and Rhode Island to the brink, too, before ultimately coming up short in those games.
“Going back to the summertime as a group, as a staff, and as players, we envisioned something like this,” head coach Patrick Sellers told the Bristol Press about winning the NEC title. “We thought this thing could be really good, but this thing was probably better than last year’s team.”
Last year’s CCSU team was pretty good, winning 20 games before ultimately falling in the NEC Tournament semis to Wagner. Adding insult to injury, Wagner eventually went to the Big Dance and won its First Four matchup over Howard.
The high-pressure nature of small conference tournaments is part of the cruelty of March. It’s something Sellers said he’s constantly reminding his team they need to be ready for.
“We keep saying to the guys all the time: You have to have three great days, three great nights in March,” Sellers said. “We can play a great regular season, but you want to go to the NCAA Tournament and you’re going to have to have three big nights in March.”
Central Connecticut will start its postseason when it hosts Le Moyne on Wednesday.