Tough weeks for Gonzaga and Kansas and UCLA’s quiet resurgence highlight the latest Rauf Report.
We’re officially one month into the college basketball season and it feels as though a top tier has really emerged in the national picture. Tennessee is the most proven undefeated team in the country and others like Auburn, Iowa State, Duke, Marquette and Alabama have proven their worth, too.
Kentucky’s victory over Gonzaga on Saturday night proved the Wildcats — and not the Bulldogs — also belong in that top tier. Mark Pope’s squad was without starting point guard Lamont Butler and lost backup Kerr Kriisa to a broken foot in the second half yet still erased an 18-point deficit to win in overtime.
The fact Kentucky made it close perhaps shouldn’t be a surprise. The Wildcats lead the country in second-half scoring margin at plus-13.6 points per game, per TeamRankings, nearly a full point ahead of anyone else.
As it relates to the Gonzaga game, Otega Oweh told reporters postgame that UK’s mentality helped turn the tide.
“We had to have some pride,” he said. “We definitely had to show that in the second half and I think we all did. In games like this, the whole entire world’s watching. So, not a lot of people will believe, but as long as the people in the circle have belief and just want to go out there and win and just play hard, just forget about the score at the time being, just go out there and do the things that we do and just play hard.”
That mentality shift also led to Kentucky attacking the basket much more, which proved beneficial because of the deficiencies on Gonzaga’s end.
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Is Gonzaga’s perimeter defense an issue?
It might be. Pope made it clear in his postgame press conference that one of his halftime adjustments was to encourage his team to drive to the basket and attack the paint more than it did in the first half.
The message was received. After scoring just 14 points in the paint and shooting 17 3-pointers in the first half, Kentucky scored 34 points in the paint while shooting just eight 3-pointers in the second half and overtime combined. It also got to the foul line 13 times after shooting just five free throws in the first half.
It helped the Wildcats because they weren’t shooting the ball well and they were too passive on the perimeter, but it also took advantage of a weakness the Zags may have in defending opponents that can create for themselves off the bounce.
Arizona State has a team full of that archetype (for better or worse) and it pushed Gonzaga to the brink of an upset at The Kennel. West Virginia’s Javon Small and Tucker DeVries had a lot of success with that in their upset win over Gonzaga, too. The only team that could potentially take advantage of it on paper and didn’t was Baylor, but the Bears have some significant issues of their own that they’re working out.
Gonzaga has UConn and UCLA left on its schedule before getting into WCC play, which is stronger than normal given the arrivals of Washington State and Oregon State coupled with quality play from teams like Saint Mary’s and San Francisco.
This is still a very good team that should win the WCC by multiple games and probably make another Sweet 16. But if the Bulldogs are going to go further than that and make another Final Four, it will need to figure out how to improve its perimeter defense.
Kansas’ struggles on the wing
It should not be lost that the No. 1 team in the country suffered a defeat this weekend as well. Missouri’s victory over Kansas — one in which the Tigers led by as many as 24 points — was the second consecutive convincing loss for the Jayhawks with a performance that was a far cry from the team that already beat Michigan State and Duke on neutral courts.
Now, the losses to Missouri and Creighton came in true road environments, and nothing in college basketball is more difficult than winning on the road. That being said, there is one issue that may cause KU’s struggles to linger, and that’s the lack of wing production Bill Self’s squad has gotten recently.
Self routinely lamented the lack of perimeter scoring options and individual shot creators on last season’s roster, so he went out and landed perhaps the two highest-rated such players in the portal in AJ Storr and Zeke Mayo. The idea was that these two – combined with Rylan Griffen’s shooting and defense – would give the Jayhawks significant scoring pop.
That was working well through the first six games of the season. Mayo has stepped up and played to a higher level than Storr, earning a starting spot, but both were contributing at an efficient level against quality competition.
However, since beating Duke in Vegas, that duo’s production hasn’t been anywhere near the same.
Kansas’ roster is constructed to where getting quality wing play is vital. Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams are a good frontcourt duo – limitations may keep them from being great, but Adams’ versatility and Dickinson’s offensive prowess make them both must-play options. The same goes for Dajuan Harris Jr., who is great when he doesn’t need to be a volume scorer.
That means the scoring has to come from the wing. The lack thereof following Kevin McCullar’s injury sunk the Jayhawks last season. Mayo, Storr and Griffen are all talented and experienced. They should be able to get back on track, particularly under Self’s tutelage.
But if they continue to struggle, there isn’t anything different about this Kansas team from last season’s.
Texas just beats up on bad teams
Every year there are teams that we expect to be high quality given how good it looks on paper. Even when metrics may support that notion, sometimes the eye test does not.
Texas is that team this season.
Rodney Terry and his staff assembled a talented roster this offseason, headlined by star freshman Tre Johnson. The Longhorns find themselves with a solid analytical profile, too, though expectations have lowered since the start of the season. Any positives in Texas’ statistical profile, however, come from the way it has beaten up on much lesser opponents.
The Longhorns’ non-conference schedule has consisted of teams in two extremes. Four of their opponents rank among the very worst teams in the nation and Texas, to its credit, has dominated those games as a quality team should. But the other five games have come against quality foes that all rank in the KenPom top 105. In those games, the Longhorns are exponentially worse.
Yes, it is easier to put up better numbers against worse teams, but the rankings are relative to how other teams perform against the same level of competition. The Longhorns are better than average against bad teams and are being outscored against the power conference/NCAA Tournament-caliber opponents they have played.
That’s not a good sign for a team entering conference play, especially considering how strong the SEC looks this season.
UCLA’s quiet dominance
UCLA’s high expectations for this season seemed to be altered following a loss to New Mexico during the season’s opening week. Mick Cronin ripped his guards after the loss, and it was fair to question where the Bruins were headed if that was the expected level of play from their backcourt.
That question has since been answered.
UCLA’s schedule has been relatively light since that game, but the Bruins have stamped their seven-game win streak with a convincing victory over Washington and a road upset over Oregon thanks to Dylan Andrews.
That victory over the Ducks not only validated the win streak — it also validated some of the gaudy stats the Bruins have been putting up. Since the loss to New Mexico, UCLA ranks:
- 7th nationally in power rating, per Torvik
- 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency
- 2nd in turnovers forced
- 11th in eFG% defense
Those are numbers indicative of a team that can compete for the Big Ten title, not just make the NCAA Tournament.
Things will get more difficult as three of UCLA’s final four non-conference games are against Arizona, North Carolina and Gonzaga, all of which are on neutral courts. Don’t be surprised to see Mick Cronin’s squad come out on top in a couple of those games.
Archie Miller has Rhode Island looking dangerous
Archie Miller’s tenure at Rhode Island didn’t look like it was going anywhere during his first two seasons. A 9-22 campaign in his debut season was followed by a 12-20 season a year ago that did little to instill confidence, especially considering that group lost eight of its final nine games.
Yet here the Rams sit at 9-0 following a resounding victory over in-state rival Providence, a win that seemed to signal Rhody as a force in the A-10.
The A-10 itself is having a phenomenal start to the season. Loyola Chicago joins Rhode Island in the undefeated ranks and seven teams currently rank in the KenPom top 100. The league is on track to put multiple teams into the NCAA Tournament (comfortably, at that) because of the number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 opportunities in conference play.
It remains to be seen where URI will ultimately fall in that mix but I can’t help but notice similarities between this Rhode Island team and Archie Miller’s best Dayton teams that won back-to-back A-10 regular season titles and advanced to the Elite Eight.
Those Dayton teams played smaller as they were loaded with quality guards. Their playstyle focused on incredible ball movement, passing and cutting offensively while forcing turnovers and playing aggressively on the defensive end. This Rhode Island team has the same makeup, albeit in a way that adapts more to today’s game given its fast tempo and the way it shoots 3-pointers.
Five different players average at least 9.9 ppg, they run a steady nine-man rotation and no one is inefficient. Big man Javonte Brown gives them a true presence inside, but he is providing the Rams with elite rim protection (27th nationally in block rate) without slowing this team down.
Similar to how UCLA’s win stamped the Bruins as a legitimate force, Rhode Island’s win over Providence did the same. It was the biggest test remaining on its non-conference schedule and Rhode Island passed in a way that made it apparent there could be more for the Rams to accomplish this season.