San Francisco head coach Chris Gerlufsen has put together a group capable of punching an NCAA Tournament bid while making plenty of noise along the way.
The start of the new college basketball season brings with it a renewed sense of optimism for all 364 Division I teams. And in San Francisco, the new year is also a new opportunity to put the Dons’ prestigious program back on the map.
Winners of at least 20 games in seven of the last eight seasons, this year’s USF squad is once again a preseason top-100 team in KenPom. And once again, the Dons are projected to finish at or near the top of the WCC’s second tier, right behind Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
Those projections sound pretty good on the surface — until the realization hits: Teams in the second tier of the WCC usually don’t make the Big Dance.
More specifically, San Francisco has just one NCAA Tournament bid to show for all those recent 20-win seasons, and the at-large berth in 2022 is the program’s only appearance since the turn of the millennium. In that light, perhaps it’s no surprise that San Francisco did not receive a single vote in this year’s preseason AP rankings despite returning three starters and six rotation players from an NIT team.
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Internal expectations are often different than external expectations, though. Head coach Chris Gerlufsen knows that his returning core can get this team back to the NCAA Tournament — and make no mistake, that is the team’s goal for the season.
“We’re trying to figure out how to bust that wall down and make that next jump for our program,” Gerlufsen told Heat Check CBB. “San Francisco has been successful before I got here. This has been a really strong mid-major program and, when I had the opportunity to take over, we wanted to continue that upward trend. I think we’re on that trajectory.”
Gerlufsen moved into the head coaching role when Todd Golden left for Florida after the 2021-22 season, and he has continued the run of 20-win seasons while compiling a new core to build around.
Jonathan Mogbo rightfully took most of the spotlight last season, averaging a double-double on his way to becoming an NBA Draft pick. Despite his stellar breakout, San Francisco was far from a one-man show. Marcus Williams (14.0 ppg, 3.9 apg, All-WCC First Team), Malik Thomas (12.4 ppg, 40.0 3P%) and Ryan Beasley (7.8 ppg, WCC Freshman of the Year) form one of the best guard trios in the entire country, let alone the WCC. On top of that, Ndewedo Newbury has grabbed the attention of some NBA scouts.
“I like our group,” Gerlufsen stated. “[The] most important thing for us is we’ve been able to hold on to core pieces from last season. We’ve been able to sustain some level of continuity and do it with guys you have a lot of trust in. Those four have poured a lot into the program since they’ve been here.”
USF’s backcourt sets the tone
Thomas (USC) and Williams (Texas A&M) both have power conference experience and are entering their fourth and fifth seasons of college basketball, respectively. Thomas is the rare dynamite shooter who also gets to the foul line regularly and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s the perfect complement for Williams, who loves to get downhill and attack the basket. Williams is an excellent finisher at the rim and is the team’s best playmaker, ranking sixth in the conference in assist rate a year ago. Both players are also quality defenders with a knack for coming up with steals.
Beasley is the young one of the group, but the 5-11, 172-pounder is coming off a campaign that earned him top rookie honors despite not starting a game. He flashed quality shooting chops from the perimeter, though he struggled at the rim. Beasley also posted a solid assist-to-turnover ratio, and the hope is he’ll become more consistent in his second season.
The sophomore may also be the best defender of the three, and the pressure that trio puts on opposing ball-handlers helped turn the Dons into a top-40 defense in 2024-25. That’s not enough for Gerlufsen.
“We want to improve our numbers on both sides of the ball,” he explained. “We had a top-50 defense, so what can we do to make those numbers go up? Defending without fouling, we’ve focused in on that.”
Is Newbury the Dons’ new NBA prospect?
Unlocking Newbury’s potential may be the biggest key to significant improvement on both ends. Since stepping on campus, the senior has gone from an end-of-the-bench body to one of the most interesting men in college basketball.
“Newbury made Jonathan [Mogbo]’s life a lot easier. He can guard 1 through 5 and covers up a lot of mistakes defensively,” Gerlufsen said. “We thought we were going to redshirt him originally, and he has just gotten better year by year. He just works his butt off in every aspect of the game.
“You don’t see a lot of guys like this now in college basketball, who have stayed at the same school in four years and put their head down and worked.”
The 6-7, 235-pounder ranked second in the WCC in true shooting percentage and block rate as a junior. His ability to stretch the floor (40.0 3P%) and defend all five positions gives Newbury a unique skill set.
Per Bart Torvik, he was one of just eight players in the country to post an offensive rating of 115.0, a true shooting percentage of 64.0 and a block rate of 5.0 while playing 60 percent of his team’s minutes. That list featured some high-profile names alongside Newbury’s, including Zach Edey, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Enrique Freeman.
One tool Newbury has that the others don’t: An outside shot. He took nearly as many 3-point attempts (103) as those three players above combined (108). Moreover, his 42 makes were more than double the next-highest player at 19.
“His skillset has put him on our radar just because there aren’t many guys who can impact the game in as many ways as he does,” one anonymous NBA scout told me. “You want to see him sustain it and be more productive now that Mogbo’s gone.”
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Reinforcements arrive on the Hilltop
As fun as it is to put Newbury in the conversation with Edey, Kalkbrenner and Freeman, he also averaged just 9.4 points last year. Now that he is the guy in the frontcourt without Mogbo, can he maintain that efficiency at a much higher usage rate?
To help lighten the load, USF brought in Carlton Linguard Jr. (9.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 33 3PM at UTSA). Linguard, a 7-footer who started his career at Kansas State, will anchor the paint and free up Newbury on both ends. Gerlufsen is also excited about what Linguard can do offensively.
“Carlton is going to have an exciting year,” Gerlufsen explained. “He’s still scratching the surface of what he can be. He has the ability to shoot the basketball at a high rate for a 7-footer. That ability to stretch a defense will be a major factor.
“He’s going to be an exciting guy to play through and really open some people’s eyes.”
Most importantly, Linguard adds a low-post scoring option to a team that could use it. Collectively, USF’s core is a quality 3-point shooting team and can finish around the rim — the main ingredients of an efficient offense. Still, they got almost nothing from the block or short corners a season ago. Linguard thrived in the left block area with UTSA, utilizing his right hook or catching lobs from the dunker spot.
He leads a three-person transfer class that also includes Jason Rivera-Torres (6.4 ppg at Vanderbilt) and Isa Silva (2.4 ppg at Long Beach State), who will provide more depth and defense on the perimeter. Returning rotation pieces Robby Beasley (3.2 ppg, 40.9 3P%) and Junjie Wang (2.8 ppg) will join them as the main contributors off the bench.
Will USF be donning their dance shoes?
This should be San Francisco’s best team since that 2021-22 squad, and it’s coming at the right time.
The WCC is welcoming in Oregon State and Washington State for the next two seasons, adding even more depth to a league that has been one of the best mid-major conferences for nearly two decades. The ongoing realignment of the Pac-12/Mountain West dominoes will make this arrangement short-lived, but it projects to increase the Dons’ strength of schedule. There will also be more eyeballs on the league, creating more chances to raise the program’s profile.
Almost all the national conversation about the WCC centers on Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s, as it should. Those two programs consistently make the NCAA Tournament, and Gonzaga is annually competing for the national championship. But that status quo is just waiting to be shaken up.
With a three-headed backcourt that rivals any in America and a pair of extremely versatile pieces up front, San Francisco has a legitimate chance to make the WCC a three-bid league in 2024-25.
Header image courtesy of San Francisco Athletics.
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