With conference play in full swing, we’re breaking down the biggest question mark for every top-10 team in the Heat Check CBB staff rankings.
As conference play begins, the haves and the have-nots are steadily separating themselves from each other. In the latest Heat Check CBB poll to kick off the new year, no one ranked a team in the consensus top 10 lower than 15th in an individual poll.
But even with the consistency in this top 10, only two submissions had the same order of their top four teams. Parity and questions are rampant this season in college basketball. Below are my biggest question marks for the top 10 teams in our latest poll.
More Heat Check CBB
Rauf Report: Historical starts for Big East stars, questions about Maryland and St. John’s
10 Texas A&M Aggies
Buzz Williams’ team looks to be no fun to go up against. They’re giving up the 12th fewest points per game this season and opponents are relying on chucking threes to avoid tough shots within the arc, making just 28% of their attempts. They’ve also got a trio of guards to bully their way to buckets while boasting the best offensive rebounding rate in the country, making them one of the most physical teams to go up against.
What remains to be seen is whether the Aggies will able to handle pressure defenses. Despite the experience in the backcourt, A&M is incredibly turnover-prone, with Zhuric Phelps holding a 24% turnover rate. They average 12 turnovers per game, and coupling that with their 45% effective field goal shooting against Quad-1 opponents, the margin of error becomes incredibly slim for this offense.
9. Houston Cougars
Kelvin Sampson tried to warn all of us after Houston’s loss to San Diego State on November 30 to not make too much out of the first month’s results. And since going 4-3 in November, the Cougars have won seven straight games including three Big 12 wins by an average margin of 21 points. Their patented defense is back to form with the lowest defensive effective field goal percentage in the country at 40.4%. Questions remain, however, if that uptick is due to guys getting familiar with their roles or if they have benefited from avoiding Quad 1 opponents for over a month.
The Cougars are struggling to find offense down low. Their 27.6 points per game in the paint is the lowest total for Sampson since 2020-2021 and the lowest percentage of their total points over the last five seasons. Throughout the latest run of this Houston program, Sampson’s teams have depended on their lead guard getting downhill and creating offense by attacking the basket and creating contact. Marcus Sasser averaged 4.2 free throw attempts his senior season while Jamal Shead averaged 2.8 free throw attempts last season. LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan are averaging a combined 2.8 attempts this year, though. When Houston needs easy looks against good teams, it remains to be seen who will step up for dependability.
8. Florida Gators
After succumbing to their first loss of the season last weekend against Kentucky, the Gators responded in a huge way in a dominant effort over top-ranked Tenessee Tuesday night. The backcourt of Walter Clayton, Alijah Martin and Will Richard is one of the best in the country, with all three averaging an effective field goal percentage of 55% or better. The supporting cast has been great at their duties as well with the frontcourt owning the glass, particularly on the offensive end. Florida boasts a 41.5% offensive rebounding rate, the fourth highest in the country.
The caveat for their frontcourt role players is that they’ve largely done it against lesser competition. Six of their 15 games have been against Quad 4 opponents and the Quad 1 teams they’ve faced (North Carolina, Arizona State, Kentucky, Tennessee) aren’t exactly known for their dominant postplay. We’ll learn a lot more about this team as they get further into SEC action and certainly after they face Auburn and Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome on February 8.
7. Marquette Golden Eagles
Kam Jones can take you places. As discussed in this week’s Rauf Report, Jones is doing things that few to none have done before him. Averaging 20.3 points, 6.5 assists and 5 rebounds per game, Jones has been nothing short of phenomenal while putting the Golden Eagles on his back. He’s shooting 64% in the paint and 70% just at the rim. And, with the news that UConn’s Liam McNeeley may be out an extended amount of time with an ankle injury, the Golden Eagles appear to be in the driver’s seat for the Big East title.
Guard and on-ball play is vital in March and having Jones is not too unlike previous Big East schools having Kemba Walker or Carmelo Anthony in the tournament. But those players also had solid role players in the front court and rim protection. Marquette was able to hold Ryan Kalkbrenner to 16 points on 36% shooting last week. It’s still wait-and-see mode whether they can handle a team with multiple weapons in the front and backcourt.
6. Kentucky Wildcats
After the win over Duke in the Champions Classic, we still had questions about this Kentucky team and whether or not the early season win against a great young team was fool’s gold because of Duke’s inexperience. Well, after wins over Gonzaga and Florida, the results are speaking for themselves. Against Florida, Lamont Butler showed why he was a massive portal get by going for 19 points, 8 assists and 3 steals. Otega Oweh has looked like a star all season and Andrew Carr, Jaxson Robinson and Koby Brea have played key supporting roles throughout their 14 games.
Kentucky has yet to find a way to play consistent defense to match their immense firepower on the offensive end. A team with three different Evan Miya Killshots™ (10-0 scoring runs) against a team shouldn’t be winning by just two possessions, yet that’s what we saw in their game against Florida. Their advanced stats fall off of a cliff when playing Quadrant 1 games as well. The Wildcats win just 67% of their rebounding battles on the defensive end and they average nearly 20 fouls against top-50 teams. There appears to be a second-weekend ceiling as long as this team is unable to defend consistently against top-50 teams.
5. Alabama Crimson Tide
One of the favorites to win it all entering the season, the Tide weathered some early rough patches before reentering the conversation as one of the best teams in the country. Senior guard Mark Sears is looking more and more like the player he was last season after struggling to find his shot early on. Nate Oats has reallocated his depth of reserves to survive a season-ending injury of Latrell Wrightsell and the ramp-up of Chris Youngblood who missed the first nine games of the season. In an opening half of the season where high-value portal bigs look to not be worth the investment, Cliff Omoruyi has looked dependable.
Oats’ teams have finished in the top six in 3-point attempts per game every season he’s been in Tuscaloosa, and this year is no different. The question is whether or not they should be as willing as in the past to take those perimeter shots considering they’re a 31.6% perimeter shooting team 14 games into the season. Losing Wrightsell makes this even tougher to navigate considering that he’s taken the fourth most attempts from deep despite Alabama playing six more games following his injury. Sophomore Aden Holloway is the lone active player shooting better than 33% from 3-point range. We’ll see if the water levels out as a team.
4. Duke Blue Devils
The overwhelming talent of Duke’s recruiting class made the questions of the Blue Devils’ greatness a matter of when not if. As much as we heard about the firepower of freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel headed into the season, it was the rotation’s length and switchability on the defensive end that made them a nightmare matchup come March. Holding opponents to 40% on 2-pointers and 28.6% on triples, the shot contesting is already there for Jon Scheyer’s team.
MORE: Defensive dominance propelling Duke to win streak
The big question for Duke is where the offense is going to come from as these games get closer and slower come March. A sacrifice for the tallest and longest lineup in the country is that the team simply doesn’t have the necessary guard play to create easier looks at the rim. Despite its size, Duke is in the 34th-percentile in the country in percentage of points coming in the paint. For as tough as it’s looked to score on Flagg, it seems nearly as difficult for him to look comfortable getting his shot off on the other end. Their two losses in the first half of the season ended with turnovers on isolation looks, and it’s an ending that could easily reappear come tournament play should they not find other ways to create better looks.
3. Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones have played themselves into a tier with Tennessee and Auburn as teams that look complete and dependably great. According to KenPom, every Cyclones team during TJ Otzelberger’s time in Ames has been a top-10 adjusted efficiency defense. However, this season is the first time Iowa State is in the top 50 in adjusted offense, and the Cyclones all the way up to No. 6. Iowa State has a boatload of great guards with senior point guard Keshon Gilbert picking up where he left off and Curtis Jones turning a corner in efficiency and providing a primary scorer off of the bench.
The question for the Cyclones is whether junior Tamin Lipsey can return to his sharpshooting from last season and provide a consistent third shooter alongside Jones and sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic. Iowa State is 259th in the country for 3-point rate and outside of Jones and Momcilovic they’re shooting 27.4% on around nine shots per game.
2. Tennessee Volunteers
Are we ready to stop doubting Rick Barnes? In his 29th season, the Volunteers’ head coach has proven once again that he can build a top-10 roster year in and year out. Losing your diamond in the rough and SEC Player of the Year to the NBA Draft? No problem, just plug in grad transfer Chaz Lanier and you’re golden. The Vols are pretty dang good at everything on both ends of the court and have proven themselves in rock fights and as shotmakers throughout their non-conference slate.
Lanier has led the team in scoring in nine this season. Similar to last season, there’s a question of who will step up around their go-to guy. We’re still in a holding pattern on whether that can reliably be senior guard Jordan Gainey, who looks to fit the bill but has taken the fourth most attempts on the team at half the rate as Lanier. Could stretch forward Igor Milicic’s perimeter scoring come back to balance out the offense?
1. Auburn Tigers
There is a clear level of separation halfway through the season between Bruce Pearl’s Tigers and the rest of the field. Auburn’s dominance in the first two months of the season has been apparent, even in their lone loss on the road in Cameron against Duke. Auburn has played at least nine guys in their rotation for all 15 of its games to start the season, with the frontcourt trio of Johni Broome, Dylan Cardwell and Chaney Johnson as a clear separator against opposing bigs.
The lone question for the Tigers is who in their backcourt do they lean on when things get tough down low? Freshman Tahaad Pettiford has looked like that dude in marquee games throughout the season, especially against Duke and early on against Houston. But the other guards have looked shaky at times against elite competition, with senior guard Denver Jones going 1-for-7 in those two contests. Sharpshooter Miles Kelly is shooting 40% on the season from deep but is hitting at a 34% clip against the top 50 teams in the NET.