Akron defeated Miami in a MAC championship thriller between the league’s top two teams, earning an NCAA Tournament bid for a second-straight year and their third trip in four seasons.
As has become tradition, Akron is dancing again.
The Zips were the MAC’s best team all year, and they proved it again by winning three games in three days to supplement their regular-season title with the conference tournament title and automatic bid. It wasn’t without drama, though. Akron trailed Miami-Ohio by as many as 18 points in the championship game before roaring back and scoring the go-ahead bucket in the final seconds.
Akron’s top four scorers from last year’s NCAA Tournament team, including Enrique Freeman and Ali Ali, are gone. Undeterred, head coach John Groce still managed to bring back plenty of experience.
Nate Johnson blossomed into a star and became MAC Player of the Year this season, while Tavari Johnson, Shammah Scott and Amani Lyles all saw upticks in their roles as well. In addition to their familiarity with Groce, they all have NCAA Tournament experience from the Zips’ run last year. In the same vein, offseason transfer additions Seth Wilson (West Virginia) and James Okonkwo (North Carolina, WVU) have also made the sacred March pilgrimage prior to this year.
That’s a lot of Big Dance experience for the team’s top players.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
Akron comes in riding a heater from deep
Akron is an entertaining offensive team. The Zips rank 19th in average possession length, 51st in 3-point attempt rate and 49th in 3-point percentage for the season. Dynamic paint-touching guards Nate Johnson, Isaiah Gray and Tavari Johnson lead the way with a combined 163 assists to 3-point shots. Bowen Hardman and Seth Wilson are the primary benefactors, each having hit at least 50 threes on better than 35 percent efficiency, with over 90 percent of their perimeter makes coming off assists.
Due to the volume at which Akron shoots from deep, its accuracy often correlates with its final scores. For reference, the Zips are 14-1 this season when shooting over 40 percent from distance, with the only loss coming on the road to Saint Mary’s.
Akron’s shooters also enter the NCAA Tournament with lots of confidence. Prior to the MAC title game, the Zips had connected on 49-of-109 (.450) from deep over their last five games. Akron only shot 33.3 percent from deep in the championship game, but it was the 7-for-16 (.438) effort in the second half alone that propelled the 18-point comeback.
An extremely balanced shooting team, Akron always has floor spacers out there. The Zips are the only team in the country to feature six players with 30 made 3-pointers on 35 percent shooting or better. That doesn’t count MAC POTY Nate Johnson, who is among the many Zips shooting better down the stretch:
Johnson stars, while Lyles and Okonkwo are undersized but vital
Nate Johnson is a hardware collector this season, winning a pair of individual awards (MAC Player of the Year, MAC Defensive Player of the Year) and pushing Akron to sweep the conference titles.
A do-it-all star, Johnson averaged 14.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game in the regular season. He won KenPom Game MVP in two of Akron’s three MAC Tournament wins, as well as in nine of the team’s last 20 wins.
Johnson leads a starting lineup that features four players listed at 6-3 or shorter, and the small-ball nature of the team doesn’t stop there. Big men James Okonkwo (6-8) and Amani Lyles (6-7) are also undersized, but they have starred in their roles. They never play together, but one or the other was on the court for 89.4 percent of Akron’s possessions in league play. In those possessions, the Zips have posted a +10.6 adjusted net rating — as opposed to -5.6 when both sit.
Where Okonkwo and Lyles are especially impactful is in the defensive paint. During league play, the Zips allowed 52.6 percent shooting at the rim with Okonkwo on, and 50.4 percent with Lyles manning the post. However, that number rose to 60.4 percent when neither was on the floor. Meanwhile, Akron is 14-0 this season when blocking at least four shots defensively; Okonkwo and Lyles account for 56.7 percent of the team’s total blocks on the year.
With the Zips likely to face more size in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament than they did in MAC play, Lyles and Okonkwo are essential.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Akron is a projected No. 13 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Zips would be equivalent to the 24th-strongest No. 13 seed from the past 10 tournament fields according to the Tournament Index.
Should the Zips move up or down a line, their TI power rating would be either the sixth-weakest of the recent 12-seeds or 12th-strongest among the 14-seeds. The TI projects an average of 0.25 wins for Akron given its projected seed and strength.
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