Alabama State is going back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 after outlasting Jackson State in the SWAC championship.
If you want a feel-good March story to get behind, the Madlocks of Alabama State may interest you.
The Hornets are heading back to the tournament for the first time in 14 years, thanks in large part to the father-son pairing of head coach Tony Madlock and senior TJ Madlock. The elder Madlock praised his progeny moments after Alabama State’s SWAC Tournament title win, which required the team to outlast Jackson State in a 60-56 slugfest.
“He’s a dog. He’s a dog, man,” Anthony Madlock told ESPN regarding his son, who finished with just seven points on 2-of-8 shooting but hit a key jumper with 38 seconds to play.
“He wasn’t making shots earlier, missed a couple free throws. Comes back and makes two, and then makes the big one to go down the stretch. … Proud dad. Proud dad.”
The story of these two newly crowned SWAC champions actually starts in the MEAC. Ahead of the 2021-22 season, Tony Madlock took his first Division I head coaching gig at South Carolina State and brought in TJ, then a freshman, as the team’s offensive centerpiece. Following a 15-16 season, the pair moved from Orangeburg to Montgomery to take up residence at Alabama State.
Now, after three seasons of steady improvement, the Madlocks have the Hornets back in the Big Dance. They sport a 19-15 record, giving them a chance for the program’s first 20-win season since 2009.
Of course, there’s more to this ASU squad than just the father-son dynamic — All-SWAC first-team guard Amarr Knox comes to mind, as does second-leading scorer CJ Hines. But if the proud dad finds cause to share an emotional embrace with his son, well, that’s got “One Shining Moment” written all over it.
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ASU’s opportunistic defense feeds its fast-break offense
Much like their namesake, the Hornets thrive when they can pick their spots and attack quickly.
Alabama State is one of the most prolific teams in the nation in terms of creating turnovers and turning them into fast offense. Per CBB Analytics, ASU ranks in the 97th percentile on defense for steal rate, 95th percentile for steals per game and 89th in steals-to-fouls ratio. Those efforts are led by the sophomore Knox (1.7 spg) and senior guard Micah Octave (1.5 spg), with Hines and Madlock (1.0 spg apiece) also contributing to the cause.
As for the fast offense, CBB Analytics grades Alabama State in the 96th percentile for percentage of team points scored on fast breaks, 92nd percentile in fast-break points per game and 88th percentile in points scored off turnovers. Leading scorers Knox (14.5 ppg), Hines (14.3 ppg) and Madlock (12.8 ppg) are naturally the main beneficiaries, although sixth man Micah Simpson (6.8 ppg) takes a team-high 27 percent of his field goals in transition.
When Alabama State can get teams off balance, it can lead to easy points on the other end. Of course, those points only come when the shots fall — which hasn’t exactly been the Hornets’ strong suit.
ASU doesn’t make many mistakes — other than shot selection
Alabama State is a fascinating team from a statistical standpoint.
Among the figures that jump off the screen for the Hornets are their top-20 marks in turnover rate (sixth nationally), steals-allowed rate (12th) and non-steal turnover rate (17th). Those numbers indicate an incredibly careful team, which is impressive given the speed of the offense (66th in average possession length, per KenPom).
However, caution may not be the only explanation for the Hornets’ low turnover numbers. Many of their quick offensive possessions simply end with a missed shot before they have a chance to cough it up.
Alabama State ranks 321st in effective field goal percentage, with the main culprit being shots from inside the arc, where the Hornets are 338th in 2-point percentage. Looking further into the issue, much of it stems from the shot selection of Knox, Hines and Madlock.
Per Bart Torvik, ASU’s top three scorers have combined to take over 300 far 2-pointers while making just over 30 percent of them (with Hines clocking in the lowest at 25.9). Additionally, the Hornets are one of just three D-I teams with three players shooting under 35 percent on more than 75 far 2-pointers, joining UL Monroe (KenPom No. 350) and Mississippi Valley State (No. 364). This trio also struggles at the rim, with all three players hitting less than 60 percent of their shots from within 4.5 feet, per CBB Analytics.
Alabama State might turn teams over and get out in transition, but unless their top offensive options can find easier looks or start converting the tougher ones, the Hornets’ full sting may be subdued.
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Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Alabama State is a projected No. 16 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. If they were grouped with all the 16-seeds that made the Round of 64 over the past 10 tournaments, ASU would have the fourth-lowest Tournament Index power rating of the bunch. If the Hornets move up a line, their power rating would be lower than any other No. 15 seed since 2013. The TI projects an average of 0.05 wins for Alabama State given its projected seed and strength.
It’s not all bad, though. After all, Alabama State isn’t the worst projected 16-seed in the tournament. That honor goes to Saint Francis, which grades out with a power rating of 41.6, compared to ASU’s 45.1. Nevertheless, both teams will likely find themselves taking a plane ride to Dayton for the First Four.
If the Madlocks and ASU can make it into the Round of 64, however, note that the historic 2018 UMBC team is among the Hornets’ closest tournament comparisons in the chart above. Could this feel-good story add another chapter or two?
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