After beating Navy in the Patriot League Tournament final, American earned its first NCAA Tournament automatic bid since 2014.
For the first time since 2018, Colgate will not represent the Patriot League in the NCAA Tournament.
The Red Raiders had dominated the conference for six consecutive seasons, but Matt Langel’s team finally took a step back this year. Into that void steps American, which ended Colgate’s season in the conference tournament semifinals before exacting its revenge on Navy in the championship game.
Ahead of the league tournament, the Eagles lost both regular-season matchups with the Midshipmen. First came an 81-58 drubbing in Annapolis in both teams’ Patriot opener, followed by a 68-60 Navy win in the nation’s capital on Feb. 26 — American’s only home loss in regulation all year long. (They also dropped a double-overtime thriller to UMBC just before league play began.)
In the Patriot League Tournament championship, however, the Eagles had the last laugh. American opened on a 9-0 run and cruised to a 74-52 win, earning its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2014.
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Rogers ending his AU career on a high note
Leading the charge for American is Matt Rogers, the team’s top scorer (17.0 ppg) and a two-time selection to the All-Patriot First Team. The 6-9 graduate student has been with the Eagles his entire career, and his 1,849 career points are good for sixth all-time in the school’s record book.
Rogers’ importance to the program was on full display in the conference title game. The big man put up a game-high 25 points, including 19 in the second half as American pulled away. That performance earned Rogers the Patriot League Tournament MVP nod, and now he’ll look to make a splash in March Madness.
Along with Lipscomb’s Jacob Ognacevic, Rogers is one of only two players in the country to shoot better than 60 percent on more than 200 2-point attempts and better than 40 percent on more than 100 threes. (Both players led their respective teams to an NCAA Tournament berth, by the way.) He also joins Creighton’s Doug McDermott and Colorado State’s David Roddy — both of whom went on to the NBA — as the only players since 2008 to maintain this efficiency on a usage rate higher than 28 percent.
With Rogers being such an obvious star, however, his teammates will need to step up around him if American is going to have any further success. Especially considering the Eagles are likely to face a No. 1 seed — assuming they either avoid Dayton or make it out alive — second-year coach Duane Simpkins will need his entire team playing well.
Locking in on the rest of the lineup
While Rogers is most certainly the team’s go-to guy, Plan B has generally worked well for American, too. The Eagles are 5-2 this year when their star scores 10 or fewer points, and one of the losses came in the season opener. Simpkins has other options if he needs them, including senior guard Elijah Stephens and sophomore forward Greg Jones.
Stephens was a third-team All-Patriot selection, averaging 10.6 points and a team-high 3.7 assists while posting the league’s third-best steal rate (3.6) during conference play. Meanwhile, Jones earned a spot on the league’s all-defense list while also scoring in double figures (10.3 ppg) for the Eagles.
Graduate students Colin Smalls (9.8 ppg) and Lincoln Ball (3.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) round out the current starting lineup, with sophomore forward Matt Mayock (7.2 ppg) serving as the first player off the bench. Simpkins has switched up his starters a bit this year, but he has found consistent success with just about every permutation of his top six guys. American is just 1-8 this year when anyone besides Rogers, Stephens, Jones, Smalls, Ball or Mayock starts — compared to a 21-4 mark when any five-man combination of those six players opens the game.
The Eagles have used the same lineup over the past nine games, going 7-2 in the process. This stretch has also included some of the team’s best defensive performances, most notably holding Navy to 52 points in the Patriot League championship.
On that note, don’t expect American to put up 100 anytime soon. The Eagles rank 349th in tempo this season, per KenPom, and prefer to take their time and pick their spots on offense. The team’s average offensive possession takes 19.7 seconds, the ninth-longest mark in the country.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, American is a projected No. 16 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Eagles would rate as the fourth-weakest No. 16 seed of the last 10 seasons (40 total No. 16 seeds) by the Tournament Index. If the Eagles move up a line, they would be the weakest No. 15 seed of the last 10 years.
The TI projects an average of 0.05 wins for American given its projected seed and strength.
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