After beating Maine in the America East Tournament championship in just its third year in the league, Bryant has punched its ticket to the Big Dance.
When Bryant moved to the America East before the 2023 season, many expected the program to emerge as an immediate contender to Vermont atop the league. After all, the Bulldogs were coming off a 22-win season in which they went 15-2 in a league only rated slightly worse than the AEC on KenPom. But while Bryant didn’t quite reach those lofty hopes right away, going only 8-8 in Year 1, it came close to the summit in Year 2 last year and toppled the league for the first time this season.
Not only that, but Bryant’s No. 149 ranking on KenPom its the program’s best since joining Division I — nearly 25 spots higher than last season and over 40 spots better than its last tournament team.
The Bulldogs arrive at the Big Dance having won 17 of their last 19 games, showing dominance on both ends of the floor versus America East competition. They led the league in both raw offensive and defensive efficiency during conference games, creating large possession margins with top-rated turnover and offensive rebounding rates, and smothering the 3-point line and paint on defense.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
Bryant is loaded with size to matchup with anyone
When Bryant hears its name called on Selection Sunday, it likely will be as a No. 15 seed. However, when fans sit down and watch warmups for the opening round, the Bulldogs sure won’t look it. Only three 15-seeds since 2008 have ranked in the top 100 for average height, per KenPom, with the average ranking settling outside the top 200. Bryant, meanwhile, ranks sixth nationally in this category.
As such, the Bulldogs could be just the second No. 15 seed since 2008 to rank in the top 50 for average height. The other was 2012 Norfolk State, which ranked 22nd when it upset No. 2 seed Missouri.
The Bulldogs are loaded with size. And not just for a mid-major. They are the only team in the country to have five players 6-6 or taller start 27 games apiece. No one else has more than three.
The starting lineup of Earl Timberlake, Rafael Pinzon, Connor Withers, Barry Evans and Keyshawn Mitchell is big, and a few of those players carry high-major experience as well. Timberlake, the AEC Player of the Year after averaging 15.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.8 blocks this season, started his career with stops at Miami (FL) and Memphis. Pinzon spent two seasons at St. John’s, while Evans transferred in from St. Bonaventure.
Size and overall record are on Bryant’s side, but its results against higher-rated teams this season do not evoke confidence. The Bulldogs only played two KenPom top-100 opponents, losing by 22 to St. John’s and by 46 to Grand Canyon. Further, they lost each of their five toughest games on KenPom. They were out-of-conference, though, and Bryant has been different since then. How much of that is due to a downshift in competition? We’ll find out in the Big Dance.
Ball movement guided Bryant throughout league play
Bryant concluded its nonconference schedule with only a 4-9 record against Division I opponents, compiling just a 44.8 percent assist rate over those contests. Combined with a high turnover rate (16.4), the Bulldogs exhibited just a 0.85 assist-to-turnover rate through those opening few weeks. That would rank in just the ninth percentile over the entire season.
From that point forward, though, Bryant started finding its offense via one another. The Bulldogs still committed 18 turnovers in their conference opener against Maine but dished out 20 assists, a season high against Division I competition, in the 26-point win. Fast-forward to now, and the Bulldogs enter the NCAA Tournament having recorded assists on 51 percent of their made field goals in AEC competition, while drastically reducing their turnover rate (12.0).
That 0.85 assist-to-turnover ratio from Bryant’s first 13 games turned into a 1.56 ratio over the last 19 games — which would be good for the 96th percentile over the entire season. While only one of Bryant’s top five minute-getters posted an assist-to-turnover over 1.0 in nonconference, all five did in league play:
Bryant is 22-2 this season when dishing 12 or more assists, but the Bulldogs have lost all nine games in which they failed to hit that mark. If you’re looking for a magic number to track, this might be the one.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Oh hey, there’s that Norfolk State team again. Neat.
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Bryant is a projected No. 15 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Tournament Index rates the Bulldogs as being equivalent to the 17th-strongest No. 15 seed from the past 10 tournaments (40 total teams). Should the Bulldogs move up or down a line, they would be either the ninth-weakest 14-seed of the last 10 tournament fields, or the third-strongest 16-seed.
The TI projects an average of 0.14 wins for Bryant given its projected seed and strength.
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