After beating Bradley in the Arch Madness final, Drake earned the MVC’s automatic bid and removed all doubt for its inclusion in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
Drake entered Arch Madness as a strong candidate to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament, even without the Missouri Valley Conference’s automatic bid. The Bulldogs held a perfect record over the top two quadrants and a neutral-site win over another projected tournament team in Vanderbilt, contributing to resume metrics that graded in the top 40. However, with 22 of their wins coming against the bottom two quadrants, plus three Quad 3 losses and sub-60 quality metrics, an at-large bid was not assured.
On Sunday, Drake removed all doubt.
The Bulldogs knocked off Bradley in the Arch Madness title game, securing the leagues’ auto-bid and capping off — for now — a spectacular Division I debut for head coach Ben McCollum. The new coach arrived in Des Moines this past offseason via Northwestern Missouri State, bringing several of his players with him. The former Bearcats thrived, with three averaging at least 9.0 points per game as Drake became the first team in the country to notch 30 wins.
Now, instead of worrying whether they’ll hear their name on Selection Sunday, the Bulldogs can just focus on their seeding and where they will play in the opening weekend. With its sparkling 6-0 record against the top two quadrants, Drake will be an unwelcome draw for some unsuspecting single-digit seed.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
No one slows the game down as much as Drake
With an adjusted tempo rating of 58.9 (364th of 364), no program in the country is more deliberate than Drake. In fact, the Bulldogs’ adjusted tempo rating is the lowest of any team since 2015. Not even those great Tony Bennett-led Virginia teams played as slowly as Drake has this season. This Bulldog offense is extremely intentional, with its average possession lasting 22.0 seconds — the longest mark of any team since 2012. That intentionality has led to a top-80 KenPom offense.
Defense, however, is this team’s calling card.
Drake ranks 47th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, largely due to limiting its opponents shot attempts. The Bulldog defense slows the game down tremendously on this end, too, ranking 308th in average possession length. Combine that with its penchant for forcing turnovers (12th in defensive TO%, first in steal rate) and crashing the boards (24th in DRB%), and it’s no wonder why teams have so much difficulty getting shots up.
Meanwhile, the team’s defensive turnover rate 22.1 percent is a huge advantage considering they play fewer possessions. Even if opponents do get a shot up, they had better make it — because a second-chance opportunity is unlikely. Compared to its opponents, Drake has much better turnover rate (18.6 percent vs. opponents’ 22.1) and offensive rebound rate (36.0 vs. opponents’ 25.8), with those combined margins between the Bulldogs and their foes ranks sixth nationally:
The way around Drake has been to dominate the paint. The Bulldogs surrender 54.3 percent shooting on 2-point attempts this season (302nd nationally) and have allowed 60 percent or higher in 10 games — including all three of their losses. Additionally, the seven wins in those games were by an average margin of just 5.4 points; they won their 23 game this season by an average of 15.1 points.
Bennett Stirtz makes Drake dangerous against anyone
Low-possession games often lead to tight contests down the stretch. Indeed, the Bulldogs played in five overtime games this season and had 10 more that were decided by eight points or fewer in regulation. They went 12-3 in these close contests, with eight wins either on the road or at neutral sites. To be as successful as it has been in close games, Drake has used a combination of elite defense and the offensive willpower of MVC Player of the Year Bennett Stirtz.
Stirtz was one of the four players to follow McCollum from Northwestern Missouri State to Drake. He averaged 12.6 points as a freshman with the Bearcats and 15.2 as a sophomore before continuing his upward trajectory at the D-I level. Stirtz has averaged 19.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.2 steals this season for the Bulldogs and will be just the fourth player in history to enter the NCAA Tournament averaging 19/4/5/2 with an effective field goal percentage over .550 (Michigan’s Gary Grant, Georgia Tech’s Kenny Anderson, Oregon State’s Gary Payton x2).
Between his scoring and his distribution for this low-possession team, Stirtz is responsible for 1,008 of Drake’s 2,130 points scored against D-I opponents this season (47.3%).
When games come down to the wire, everyone knows that #14 will have the ball in his hands for Drake. His usage rate skyrockets to 35.7 percent in the “clutch” this season, which rates in the 99th percentile, per CBB Analytics. His shooting takes a hit in the clutch, but Stirtz is dynamic in drawing fouls and creating for teammates. He has scored 63 points in 87 clutch minutes this season, drawing 18 fouls and recording 10 assists to only three turnovers. Few in the country are as experienced in crunch time.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
There is a wide range of outcomes for Drake’s potential seed on Selection Sunday, given the wide gap between its resume and quality metrics. The Bulldogs average at 36.3 in resume metrics but only 62.7 in quality marks. Our bracketology at Heat Check CBB currently has the Bulldogs slotted as a No. 11 seed, while the Bracket Matrix projects a No. 12 seed. Based on its resume, Drake appears poised to land between a No. 10-12 seed.
The Tournament Index would value Drake in the 13th percentile of No. 10 seeds, the 17th percentile of No. 11 seeds, and the 52nd percentile of No. 12 seeds over the last 10 years.
The TI projects an average of 0.43 wins for Drake given their projected seed and strength. As shown above, though, six of the 10 teams with the most comparable profiles and seeds on Bart Torvik won a game in the Big Dance. However, none made the Sweet 16.
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