After knocking off Northern Colorado in the Big Sky final, Montana earned the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
Montana and Northern Colorado split their season series, both winning on the road, and tied for the Big Sky regular-season title with 15-3 records. Both were several games clear of third-place Portland State, and their eventual meeting in the conference tournament title game felt like a foregone conclusion.
On the neutral site of the Idaho Central Center, Montana won in a 91-83 shootout, earning its first NCAA Tournament appearance since back-to-back trips in 2018 and 2019. The Grizzlies’ 91 points were the most that Northern Colorado has allowed all year. Four different Montana players notched at least 15 points, and the team shot 65.7 percent from the field — including 63.6 percent from beyond the arc. The team’s 24-for-28 (.857) showing at the foul line didn’t hurt, either.
Montana now enters the NCAA Tournament having won 14 of its last 15 games, including two wins away from home over Northern Colorado. The Grizzlies’ only loss since Jan. 20 was on the road to Portland State in overtime. They have rated as the No. 89 team in the country on Bart Torvik since then. Suffice it to say, their play of late is much better than their whole body of work might indicate.
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- Full conference tournament TV schedule
Offensive balance leads the way
Montana enters the NCAA Tournament with a top-100 adjusted offensive efficiency rating despite ranking among the worst offensive rebounding teams nationwide. The Grizzlies take care of the ball well (118th in TO%), earn trips to the foul line (87th in FTA/FGA) and score efficiently at all three levels. They are one of only 28 teams in the country to rank in the top 100 for field goal percentage on close 2s (.652, 19th), longer 2s (.406, 79th), and 3-pointers (.365, 54th).
Additionally, Montana is one of only seven D-I teams with six players averaging at least 9.0 points, joining Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Gonzaga, SMU and Arizona State. Notably, the Grizzlies are the only team in that group to rank outside of the top 150 for adjusted tempo.
Montana’s balance makes it a very difficult cover. Expand the chart above to include Austin Patterson, and six of the Grizzlies’ top seven players have hit 18 or more 3-pointers this season. Head coach Travis DeCuire has had a different leading scorer in the last four games, including Patterson — who averages 5.7 points — scoring 20 in the team’s semifinal win over Idaho. The most explosive bucket-getter, however, is Money Williams. He has scored 20-plus in six games, including 36 in a loss to Portland State a few weeks ago. Williams also dropped 30 on Tennessee and 25 on Utah State earlier in the season, proving his go-to status against top teams.
Montana must find stronger defense to spring an upset
Montana faced four KenPom top-75 teams during the regular season. While all of those games were on the road and before Christmas, they are the best examples of how this team might play as a heavy underdog in the NCAA Tournament. In those four games, the Grizzlies were blown out by Oregon (lost by 31 points) and Tennessee (35), but they kept things much closer at Utah State (12) and San Francisco (4). The downside: Montana’s first-round foe will look more like Oregon or Tennessee than USU or USF.
To compete for a first-round upset, the team’s defense must be much better. The Grizzlies surrendered 84.3 points per game against its KenPom top-75 opponents. Expanding the competition level a bit, Montana has surrendered 82.2 points per game against the KenPom top-200 this season, going 6-7 in those games. It has won its last four against the KenPom top 200 since starting 2-7, but none of those games were against the top 100.
As for a stat that might breed some optimism in Missoula, the Grizzlies are 16-0 when holding opponents under 35.7 percent from deep this season. A cold shooting night could prove to be disastrous for Montana’s first NCAA Tournament opponent.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Montana is a projected No. 14 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Grizzlies would rate as the weakest No. 14 seed of the last 10 seasons (40 total No. 14 seeds) by the Tournament Index. If they drop a line, they would be the tied for the fifth-weakest No. 15 seed of the last 10 years.
The TI projects an average of 0.13 wins for Montana given its projected seed and strength.
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