Omaha basketball is headed to its first-ever NCAA Tournament after winning the automatic bid from the Summit League.
Omaha basketball didn’t need to win the Summit League title game to earn the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. The team had already wrapped up that status after St. Thomas, which is ineligible for the Big Dance due to D-I transition rules, won its semifinal. Regardless, the Mavericks proved deserving by beating the Tommies in the title game to earn a trip to its first-ever NCAA Tournament.
This program first became eligible for the Summit League Tournament in 2016 and quickly made it to the championship game twice in its first four tries under long-time head coach Derrin Hansen. Unfortunately, Omaha fell short both times. Then, after back-to-back five-win seasons in 2021 and 2022, the school hired new head coach Chris Crutchfield, a former two-sport athlete at Omaha. Crutchfield has improved the win total in each of his three seasons (from nine to 15 to 22 and counting) and now has them dancing.
Leading the way for this year’s breakthrough team is a superb offense. The Mavericks rank in the top 100 nationally for adjusted efficiency, rate in the upper half of the country in nearly every major offensive rate statistic, and led the Summit League in raw offensive efficiency during league play.
More Heat Check CBB:
- Bracketology: Projected field | Bubble Watch
- Tournament Index: Complete March Madness projections
- Full conference tournament TV schedule
The inside-out attack is peaking at the right time
Omaha ranks just 179th in 3-point attempt rate, but the Mavericks are deadly accurate. They rank 45th in 3-point percentage, proving particularly dangerous on above-the-break 3s. Omaha shoots a blistering 38.6 percent on such attempts — 98th percentile nationally — and have improved as of late. They lead the country in this category since Jan. 2, hitting an astounding 42.3 percent over this stretch.
JJ White and Tony Osburn, most notably, form one of the country’s most dangerous perimeter duos. Both average over six above-the-break 3-point attempts per 40 minutes since Jan. 2, shooting 46.4 and 46.8 percent, respectively. White is particularly dangerous, as more than half of his made above-the-break 3s have been unassisted; he is as much of a threat with the ball in his hands as anyone in D-I.
With Marquel Sutton and Kamryn Thomas also splashing better than 44 percent of these shots, albeit on lesser volume, it’s an incredibly dangerous shooting unit.
Meanwhile, that outside game has opened things up on the inside as well.
While the Mavericks’ rim rate only ranks in the 53rd percentile nationally, they have been attacking more lately. Omaha is attempting 35.6 percent of its shots at the rim over the last 10 games (87th percentile), upping that to nearly 40 percent over the last five (96th percentile).
The increased attack makes sense; the Mavericks are finishing on over 65 percent of their shots at the rim. Sutton (19.1 ppg, 8.0 rpg) is the dominant force, hitting 69.4 percent of his 193 shots at the rim this year, becoming one of the nation’s most effective players at this volume.
Omaha’s deadliness at the rim and from three, coupled with a top-100 turnover rate, provide the recipe for building the Summit League’s strongest offense.
But can the Mavericks get enough stops?
As strong as Omaha is offensively, the opposite is true on defense. The Mavericks do an excellent job limiting second-chance points, ranking 23rd in defensive rebounding rate. However, they don’t get many opportunities to show it thanks to allowing the 69th-highest effective field goal percentage in D-I. In fact, Omaha ranks sub-250 nationally in eFG% defense, defensive turnover rate, and defensive free throw rate.
Overall, the team’s adjusted defensive efficiency rate of 111.6 points allowed per 100 possessions (266th nationally) is the 10th-worst of any NCAA Tournament team across nearly 30 years of KenPom data.
Their opponents’ offensive tempo also has a strong correlation with the Mavericks’ results. Omaha is 14-1 against teams ranked 215th or slower in average offensive possession length, going 5-11 otherwise.
Indeed, when the Mavericks can force the other team to chew up time, they are at their best: Their eFG% defense rates in the 59th percentile with less than 15 seconds left on the shot clock. However, that only accounts for 43.1 percent of their defensive possessions. The vast majority of defensive possessions have resulted in shots within the first 15 seconds of the clock. Alarmingly, the Mavericks’ eFG% defense on those attempts ranks in just the 12th percentile.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Similar efficiency profiles and statistics found via Bart Torvik.
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Omaha is a projected No. 16 seed both by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB as well as on the Bracket Matrix. Should that be the case, Omaha would rate as a middle-of-the-road 16-seed and would be tied for 17th-strongest of 41 such teams as measured by the Tournament Index.
If the Mavericks move up a line, they would be the second-weakest No. 15 seed of the last 10 years. But for the time being, the TI projects an average of 0.07 wins (play-ins excluded) for Omaha given their projected seed and strength.
You must be logged in to post a comment.