After knocking off Youngstown State in the Horizon League championship game, top-seeded Robert Morris is headed to the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
After amassing a record of just 38-78 (.328) over the prior four seasons, Robert Morris entered 2024-25 without high expectations. The Colonials were picked to finish ninth in the 11-team Horizon League, and they looked likely to be on that trajectory at midseason. RMU started just 10-7 through the opening two months, including four losses and one triple-overtime win in its first six Horizon League games.
From that point forward, though, Robert Morris owned the Horizon.
Following a Jan. 8 loss to Cleveland State, the Colonials won 13 of their final 14 regular-season games to earn their first Horizon League title since joining the conference in 2020, and they tacked on three more to earn their first Horizon League tournament title. Over that 16-1 stretch, which includes 10 straight victories, Bart Torvik’s time-dependent rankings grade the Colonials as the country’s 108th-best team.
The only teams riding longer win streaks are High Point (14 games), UC San Diego (13) and McNeese (11). Meanwhile, RMU’s 26 wins tie the program’s most in its 49 seasons in Division I — so a win in the NCAA Tournament would set a new school record.
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Alvaro Folgueiras is a tough inside-out forward
After being left off the Horizon League All-Freshman team last season, Alvaro Folgueiras responded by becoming arguably the conference’s best player as a sophomore. The dynamic forward became just the third player since 1974-75 to lead his team to the NCAA Tournament while averaging at least 14.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks on better than .600 true shooting, joining UNLV’s Larry Johnson and Xavier’s David West.
When Folgueiras is on his game, Robert Morris is normally in good shape. He averages 15.8 points on .684 true shooting in wins this season, as opposed to only 8.4 points on .516 true shooting in losses. The sophomore has notably dominated down the stretch, too, scoring in double figures in every game of RMU’s current 10-game win streak. His progression has been impressive:
The 6-9 forward can score off the bounce, as well as shoot over defenders from the post or from three. He makes a positive impact defensively, too. With Folgueiras on the floor, Robert Morris has performed 13.7 adjusted points per 100 possessions better than when he sits. His arsenal was on full display against NKU earlier this year in a 35-point, 10-rebound performance in just 28 minutes.
Folguieras’ emergence down the stretch has also given a major boost to running mate Kam Woods. Woods, the reigning Horizon League Tournament MVP and team leader in scoring (15.1 ppg) and playmaking (5.1 apg), is as important as anyone to RMU’s success. Over the last five contests, he has averaged over 40 minutes per game, and the Colonials are 9-0 when he dishes at least seven assists.
Woods and Folgueiras lead RMU in assists, including 60 dimes to one another, and the duo could have a star turn if the Colonials can pull off a first-round upset.
Strength of schedule makes RMU hard to judge
Robert Morris has not played a lot of NCAA Tournament-caliber competition this season. Hailing from a one-bid league certainly plays a factor in that, but the Colonials also played just the 322nd-strongest nonconference schedule.
RMU played just one game against a projected tournament team, likely double-digit seed West Virginia, and lost by 28 on the road. While that was the first game of the season, it does not evoke much confidence. That contest was also RMU’s only game against the NET top 100 all season.
The Colonials did win their second- and third-toughest games at Cornell and Milwaukee, but those do not change the untested nature of the team. It is a guarantee that RMU’s first-round opponent will be its toughest competition of the season — and by an extremely large margin. The Colonials will need to come out strong and set a tone of competitiveness in the first round, or it could be a long night. The step up in competition as compared to the rest of its schedule will not be just one weight class, but a few.
Some players have been around the NCAA Tournament, though. Woods did not play during NC State’s Cinderella run to the Final Four last season, but he was along for the ride. Sixth man Ryan Prather played a minimal role on Akron’s tournament team last season, too. And while not at the Division I level, Josh Omojafo knows tournament play; he made the D-II Elite Eight at Gannon last year, and he showed up big in this season’s Horizon League Tournament with a 24-point, 13-rebound showing in the title game.
Similar NCAA Tournament efficiency profiles
Tournament Index evaluation
As it stands, Robert Morris is a projected No. 15 seed by our bracketology at Heat Check CBB and on the Bracket Matrix. The Colonials would rate as the 19th-strongest No. 15 seed of the last 10 seasons (40 total No. 15 seeds) by the Tournament Index. If they were to end on a different seed line, they would be the and the 35th-strongest No. 14 seed or the fourth-strongest No. 16 seed.
The TI projects an average of 0.13 wins for Robert Morris given its projected seed and strength.
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